Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

geez, you sure are frightened by a lot of things - better lay off the kiyosaki :laugh:
anyway, "dumping" in panic is usually not the way to go. If you had invested $1 in the following assets in the early 1800's, by the 1990's your dollar investment would have grown to:
U.S. Stocks - well over $500,000
U.S. Bonds - about $400
Gold - close to $0.85.

gold is a hedge against inflation, but stocks, bonds, and real estate are what really allow your money to compound over time.

geez, you sure are frightened by a lot of things - better lay off the kiyosaki :laugh:
anyway, "dumping" in panic is usually not the way to go. If you had invested $1 in the following assets in the early 1800's, by the 1990's your dollar investment would have grown to:
U.S. Stocks - well over $500,000
U.S. Bonds - about $400
Gold - close to $0.85.

gold is a hedge against inflation, but stocks, bonds, and real estate are what really allow your money to compound over time.

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/

Inflation is about to rip the bunghole of the entire banking system wide open.

Hasta La Vista!

GREAT ARTICLE:

Americans never had it so good. Their assets have been appreciating several times the rate of inflation. The Dow and the S&P 500 tripled between 1995 and 2000. After the 2001 recession, they have recovered back to those levels. Housing is whole another story. House values have doubled on an average throughout the country since 1995. Americans have felt richer. They tapped the equity in their homes, to support lavish life styles.
The Federal Reserve keeps creating more and more dollars. And then loans them out at record low interest rates to borrowers.

Meanwhile, the cost of goods has been going down. As manufacturing jobs shift to Asia, and service jobs to India. The cost of most goods that Americans need has been going down.

This has created huge imbalances in the World Economy. Americans are getting deeper and deeper into debt. While people in Asia keep adding to their savings. The M3 explosion since 1995 is beginning to show its effects. Inflation is rising more than the Fed would like to see.

What we had for nearly a decade was a relatively rapid Asset Inflation, and Goods Deflation. As home prices stop rising and Americans can't borrow more. The US Economy which is 70% Consumer Spending will come to a screeching halt. Not to mention the effects of job losses in construction and mortgage sector.

Recession is inevitable. And as the Economy weakens, foreign investors will reduce investments in the US. Which combined with the huge trade deficits, could collapse the dollar very fast.

The cost of everything that is imported will go up. The assets will continue to deflate. While the cost of everything Americans need will go up, which is measured as the rate of inflation.

Now this cycle of "Asset Inflation, Goods Deflation" will reverse into "Asset Deflation, Goods Inflation". Americans will feel a lot of real pain.
Assets could be valued less than the outstanding debt used to purchase them. And this will also be the time to pay back those debts. Even though they will need to spend more and more on goods they need for everyday life.

Are We Americans Ready for this?

A weakening US Economy will continue to shed more and more jobs. More and more Americans will become unemployed. And this "multiplier effect" on Economy, could end in Another Great Depression.

What about those manufacturing jobs in Asia, and service jobs in India? They too will disappear along with, as the US consumer no longer can purchase their products, or use their services. Also with dollar devaluation, it will make less economic sense to import them. Global Recession is very likely.

The longest experiment with fiat currency and limitless credit expansion is coming to an end within a few years.

Every time the dollar has been off the gold standard, it has resulted in a currency crisis. Every fiat currency in the history has had the same fate.

The US has been off the gold standard for nearly four decades now. There is no reason why it will end differently this time.

The never ending supply of fiat dollars is the core of problem. No Society has ever successfully printed its way into Prosperity.

I've read many similar articles pointing exactly to what you mentioned.

I've invested quite successfully in stocks for years, and I'm considering a precious metal portfolio, for the same reasons you've mentioned. I've also started to do research on precious metals.

One problem I'm encountering is, 1) if I buy metals where will I store it? 1a) what are the costs of storing it? 1b) if I store it in my home should I be concered about the safety of doing so? (hmm let's see I got $300,000 in gold in my basement) 2) what is the monex, apmex or what have you metals exchange going to buy back the metal at? I don't want to buy a metal at for example $100 from a metal exchange, if they only buy it back at a severely lower fraction of the cost.

I'm trying to figure this out right now. I should've bought gold a few years ago. I knew it was going to go up, but being a medstudent at the time, I had hardly any funds to do so.

Another area I've considered going into is Forex, for the same reasons mentioned above.

Just wondering but what are your experiences and advice in this LADoc?

I've read many similar articles pointing exactly to what you mentioned.

I've invested quite successfully in stocks for years, and I'm considering a precious metal portfolio, for the same reasons you've mentioned. I've also started to do research on precious metals.

One problem I'm encountering is, 1) if I buy metals where will I store it? 1a) what are the costs of storing it? 1b) if I store it in my home should I be concered about the safety of doing so? (hmm let's see I got $300,000 in gold in my basement) 2) what is the monex, apmex or what have you metals exchange going to buy back the metal at? I don't want to buy a metal at for example $100 from a metal exchange, if they only buy it back at a severely lower fraction of the cost.

I'm trying to figure this out right now. I should've bought gold a few years ago. I knew it was going to go up, but being a medstudent at the time, I had hardly any funds to do so.

Another area I've considered going into is Forex, for the same reasons mentioned above.

Just wondering but what are your experiences and advice in this LADoc?

The cost of professionally "vaulting" metals is .75% of the total value/year. But realize if you plunked down 50 grand worth of gold, it is only a few pounds. There are tons of books written by survivalists on how to "cache" hidden items on your property that would be protected from discovery by anything but the most advanced ground sonar equipment. If you buy your gold from where people do in California (www.goldline.com in Santa Monica) then they guarantee to buy back your gold with only a 1% transfer fee. But if you tried to dump lots of gold in a bad market, it could cost you up to 15% (pure bullion) or even 30%(many non-bullion nusm. coins, which I DONT recommend) to liquidate. In a good gold market of course, the currency BECOMES gold. US Dollar fiat currency isnt worth the paper its printed on. I was told by reliable sources that this week the UAE and other Arab countries stopped accepting US Dollars as payment for oil. Purchasers are left with either Euros or Gold Coinage in the form of electronic gold transfers. That is a HUGE flag world gold supplies are about to be tapped like never before. In addition, there is big talk of China, India, Russia and the Middle East simultaneously going back on a gold-backed currency and dumping their entire US Dollar Supply. Regardless of our military strength, that would quite literally be the end of our little experiment in democracy.

You almost wonder why the greedy bankers let it get so bad!

Hasta

Found a place that offers an even better spread than goldline,

www.golddealer.com
First price is the BUY, second is the SELL
US Gold Bullion Eagle / New Buffalo Coin (1 Oz) $659.00
$672.00

US Gold Bullion Eagle (1/2 Oz) $327.00
$337.00

US Gold Bullion Eagle (1/4 Oz) $165.00
$175.00

US Gold Bullion Eagle (1/10 Oz) $65.00
$71.00


US PROOF 1 Oz Gold Eagle/Box With Certificate $690.00
$790.00


Austrian Philharmonic Gold Bullion (1 Oz) $654.00
$667.00

Australian Kangaroo Gold Bullion (1 Oz) $654.00
$667.00


South African Gold Bullion Krugerrand (1 Oz) $646.00
$659.00



1 Oz Gold Bullion Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert $646.00
$659.00

10 Oz Gold Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert $6460.00
$6590.00


Canadian Gold Bullion Maple Leaf (1 Oz) $647.00
$667.00

How pimping would it be to be liquid with Swiss Gold Bars?!

Found a place that offers an even better spread than goldline,

www.golddealer.com
First price is the BUY, second is the SELL


How pimping would it be to be liquid with Swiss Gold Bars?!

lol, i know you're crazy about this gold stuff, but this is something i actually did so i understand the "coolness factor". I bought a credit suisse ingotcard a while back when the spot price was like $450. i didn't buy it as an investment, or a hedge against inflation or anything - i bought it to commemorate an event and because it looked really cool...but i guess it all works out in the end.

I spoke with two people today. One, my guy at Edward Jones. Two, my guy at Ameriprise.


Both said buying into precious metals now is more or less pointless. We've missed the up and up.

I spoke with two people today. One, my guy at Edward Jones. Two, my guy at Ameriprise.


Both said buying into precious metals now is more or less pointless. We've missed the up and up.

exactly...precious metals are selling at record prices right now, buying now is like buying stocks at their peak...

If you really want to protect yourself from unstable currency markets, which in reality we are far from, consider moving your investments to ones denominated in another currency, or utilizind hedged mutual funds.

I spoke with two people today. One, my guy at Edward Jones. Two, my guy at Ameriprise.


Both said buying into precious metals now is more or less pointless. We've missed the up and up.


Hahaha. Precious metals are WAY undervalued. Even after doubling in price since 2003, gold is still 200 bucks off its high mark in the 80s. Many are predicting gold will surge past 1000 before this xmas. Past 2700/oz by 2008-2009.

Yeah of course you should listen to bond traders/stocks crowd about this, they have absolutely no self interest in keeping inflated US assets high, none, none at all. Yes everyone at Edwards Jones, Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter and Schwab are completely unbiased right? :laugh: :laugh:

Most of the people in the investment industry at the small consumer end are IDIOTS. Why dont you read about this stuff for yourself:
http://www.dollarcollapse.com/images/dcbookcv_small.jpg

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/dc5/images/gen_storm_sm.jpg

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/dc5/images/dollar_crisis_sm.jpg

Here from the latest from www.TheStreet.com

Gold was rallying again Wednesday as investors fled the U.S. dollar and oil prices climbed.

December contracts for the yellow metal reached a high of $666.50 an ounce before retreating to close up $4.70 at $662 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). Oil was gaining 79 cents, at $77.10 a barrel, on the Nymex.

"Gold continues to work hard on all cylinders," says Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter and a well-known gold bug. "The main thrust is heightened geopolitical tension, but it will be the declining dollar that pushes the yellow metal's price to new highs."

Gold prices typically move inversely to the strength of the U.S. dollar. In a choppy day of trading the greenback was losing ground against the euro ($1.2862 vs. 1.2848 a day earlier) but gaining slightly against the yen after earlier weakness (115.31 vs. 115.10 on Tuesday afternoon.)

Shares of the bullion ETFs, streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU - commentary - Cramer's Take), were moving up, in line with the metal's price.

Grandich adds that he sees the U.S. dollar index, which measures the relative strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies, reaching critical technical support levels soon, forecasting an "inevitable test" of 83.80. (The benchmark September dollar index futures contract was recently trading at 84.40, down 8 cents, on the New York Board of Trade.)

Another bullish factor for gold was ongoing concern over inflation, with some investors worried that the Fed may have missed the boat Tuesday when it paused its two-year rate hike program and left the base borrowing rate at 5.25%.

"Inflation is a lot worse than the Fed lets on," says Peter Schiff, president of broker-dealer Euro Pacific Capital. "If they were [truly] concerned about inflation they wouldn't have paused."

exactly...precious metals are selling at record prices right now, buying now is like buying stocks at their peak...

If you really want to protect yourself from unstable currency markets, which in reality we are far from, consider moving your investments to ones denominated in another currency, or utilizind hedged mutual funds.


Exactly what I was thinking.

My problem is I'm currently making good money doing things outside of precious metals and forex. I got strong reason to believe that precious metals & forex are the way to go, but I'm trapped between sticking with what I'm doing which is making me decent money, not having time to do adequate research (I'm still a resident), and studying for the boards.

If it was my choice I'd take off 2-3 weeks and just study up on precious metals & forex more. I'm trying to get my new wife to do it for me, but she lacks the economic savvy (oh well, I ought to just be happy that she's as hot as a supermodel, is one of the nicest people I've met, is a great cook, cleans up my place for me (we're not living together yet) and is my best friend rolled into one---its too much to ask her to take over my investment portfolio.

Exactly what I was thinking.

My problem is I'm currently making good money doing things outside of precious metals and forex. I got strong reason to believe that precious metals & forex are the way to go, but I'm trapped between sticking with what I'm doing which is making me decent money, not having time to do adequate research (I'm still a resident), and studying for the boards.

If it was my choice I'd take off 2-3 weeks and just study up on precious metals & forex more. I'm trying to get my new wife to do it for me, but she lacks the economic savvy (oh well, I ought to just be happy that she's as hot as a supermodel, is one of the nicest people I've met, is a great cook, cleans up my place for me (we're not living together yet) and is my best friend rolled into one---its too much to ask her to take over my investment portfolio.

How much $ do you have to play with as a mere resident?? Just curious.

Just looked into Forex, is that online commodities trading essentially??

Once again if anyone knows a good way to research this all so I dont lose my shirt, give me a heads up...gracias!

Hahaha. Precious metals are WAY undervalued. Even after doubling in price since 2003, gold is still 200 bucks off its high mark in the 80s. Many are predicting gold will surge past 1000 before this xmas. Past 2700/oz by 2008-2009.

Yeah of course you should listen to bond traders/stocks crowd about this, they have absolutely no self interest in keeping inflated US assets high, none, none at all. Yes everyone at Edwards Jones, Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter and Schwab are completely unbiased right? :laugh: :laugh:

Most of the people in the investment industry at the small consumer end are IDIOTS. Why dont you read about this stuff for yourself:
http://www.dollarcollapse.com/images/dcbookcv_small.jpg

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/dc5/images/gen_storm_sm.jpg

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/dc5/images/dollar_crisis_sm.jpg

Here from the latest from www.TheStreet.com

Alright dude, you buy your gold, and we will compare in 5 years.

How much $ do you have to play with as a mere resident?? Just curious.

Just looked into Forex, is that online commodities trading essentially??

Once again if anyone knows a good way to research this all so I dont lose my shirt, give me a heads up...gracias!

i love trading commodities, but stocks are what i "invest" in. too many people who don't know what they are doing are entering the commodities/forex game, which is why i'm eagerly awaiting the nymex ipo...

Forex is basically buying & selling various currencies

http://www.forex.com/

This particular site appears to be the main one most people go to, although I have seen others that are cheaper. Forex.com's advantage is supposedly they'll teach you through it, but you got to pay money for lessons.

Question....if you buy a precious metal, are there any concerns about keeping the metal from various aging factors such as oxidation? I saw some various precious metal bars covered in plastic as a selling point.

Forex is basically buying & selling various currencies

http://www.forex.com/

This particular site appears to be the main one most people go to, although I have seen others that are cheaper. Forex.com's advantage is supposedly they'll teach you through it, but you got to pay money for lessons.

Question....if you buy a precious metal, are there any concerns about keeping the metal from various aging factors such as oxidation? I saw some various precious metal bars covered in plastic as a selling point.

well for one thing, a lot of forex brokers are willing to teach you through it (often for free), and give you a practice account - they have a vested interest in this because the more you know (or at least think you know), the more you'll trade and generate commissions. i use interactive brokers and have had a good experience with them, and have also heard good things about optionsxpress. i guess it just matters what platforms you're comfortable with...

oh, and precious metals like gold and platinum do not tarnish or "oxidize", which is one of the reasons they are prized in industry (like dental work, electrodes for brain, etc.). i think they keep them "wrapped" to ensure that the amt of gold you have for instance is exactly one ounce - so you can't scratch some of it off and sell gold dust. 24k gold is really soft.

one thing i should mention is that forex is arguably one of the most high risk things out there, especially with the huge amount of leverage involved. you need to be trading with tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars per position in order to profit off of extremely minute differences in price. you can lose substantially more than you have invested. so watch out.

well for one thing, a lot of forex brokers are willing to teach you through it (often for free), and give you a practice account - they have a vested interest in this because the more you know (or at least think you know), the more you'll trade and generate commissions. i use interactive brokers and have had a good experience with them, and have also heard good things about optionsxpress. i guess it just matters what platforms you're comfortable with...

oh, and precious metals like gold and platinum do not tarnish or "oxidize", which is one of the reasons they are prized in industry (like dental work, electrodes for brain, etc.). i think they keep them "wrapped" to ensure that the amt of gold you have for instance is exactly one ounce - so you can't scratch some of it off and sell gold dust. 24k gold is really soft.

That raises the ? of whether you go with 24K gold coins/bars or 22K (both have the same amount of gold, but 22K weigh more). The idea is that American Eagles and South African gold is alloyed with copper (and the US alloys with silver) to increase the hardiness. Some people laugh at this because modern gold was never meant to circulate, BUT if sh!t really does hit the fan I feel 22K is the way to go to protect against marring.

Speaking of gold--the precious metals took a hit today. The day isn't over, but as of now--wow. Strange considering a terrorist plot IMHO would've drove gold up.

Speaking of gold--the precious metals took a hit today. The day isn't over, but as of now--wow. Strange considering a terrorist plot IMHO would've drove gold up.

Wait and see....I think with this new liquid explosive terror plan, all hell could break loose at any minute....gold=security.

Speaking of gold--the precious metals took a hit today. The day isn't over, but as of now--wow. Strange considering a terrorist plot IMHO would've drove gold up.

it's because the plot was foiled, so the threat is less likely. plus oil prices are down, since they figure less people will travel because of this.

That raises the ? of whether you go with 24K gold coins/bars or 22K (both have the same amount of gold, but 22K weigh more). The idea is that American Eagles and South African gold is alloyed with copper (and the US alloys with silver) to increase the hardiness. Some people laugh at this because modern gold was never meant to circulate, BUT if sh!t really does hit the fan I feel 22K is the way to go to protect against marring.

if you're from india like i am, you/ your parents have a lot of 22k gold sitting around as jewelry :laugh:

Gold off 15 today!

If gold dips below 600, Im considering going in for 20-30 oz. (2-3 10oz Swiss Bars).

if you're from india like i am, you/ your parents have a lot of 22k gold sitting around as jewelry :laugh:

Amen. My mom has so many damn bangles and rings. I mean, I used to wear a necklace when I was a little kid witih a cross and what not. I mean, I lost like eight of them, but its like we had a storeroom of htem.

Gold off 15 today!

If gold dips below 600, Im considering going in for 20-30 oz. (2-3 10oz Swiss Bars).

when it goes down to the $450-475 level, i might consider it...

Some of the gold "experts" as ETF pointed out are saying they believe the effect was from oil going down, in addition to the price of the dollar going up.

Speaking of the possible collapse of the dollar--I've also heard about buying up the yuan---the chinese unit of currency. The Chinese currency has gone up in value relative to the dollar, and their economy supposedly is exploding. The risk though that some speculate is its increasing so much, so fast that it may collapse from too quick a rise.

Some of the gold "experts" as ETF pointed out are saying they believe the effect was from oil going down, in addition to the price of the dollar going up.

Speaking of the possible collapse of the dollar--I've also heard about buying up the yuan---the chinese unit of currency. The Chinese currency has gone up in value relative to the dollar, and their economy supposedly is exploding. The risk though that some speculate is its increasing so much, so fast that it may collapse from too quick a rise.

I may start another thread, BUT for now, lets discuss foriegn currency training, Im not comfortable rolling with yuan, but what about more stable currencies like Euros and Pounds? Anyone know a solid reference for this type of trading, I know you can lose your shirt and I would like be well informed before I venture further.

PS-Gold spot heading below 630 potentially!

I'm wondering how much more metals will dip.

Summer is cooling down, gas prices are projected to drop according to CNBC (despite the BP pipe burst), consumer confidence is up for now--which would lead me to think that metals will drop for the short term.

I'm still thinking that metals are a good long term investment, but if I jump in, I want to do at the most short term advantageous time.

Its still dipping today to my surprise.

Some of the gold "experts" as ETF pointed out are saying they believe the effect was from oil going down, in addition to the price of the dollar going up.

Speaking of the possible collapse of the dollar--I've also heard about buying up the yuan---the chinese unit of currency. The Chinese currency has gone up in value relative to the dollar, and their economy supposedly is exploding. The risk though that some speculate is its increasing so much, so fast that it may collapse from too quick a rise.

the Chinese economy is growing "too fast", which some people predict will lead to overspending in capital expenditures and could lead to a glut of manufacturing facilities, which might be bad. I myself am investing in the Indian economy (not just because I am Indian), but because it's a more service oriented economy and the capital markets are far more developed.

as for forex trading, i don't know how effective it is unless you are working with a lot of money (either your own or borrowed). i think that the way to start out in "extremely speculative" things like forex, commodities etc is to trade options - they are a bit easier to understand, and once you get a feel for it, you can decide if you want to speculate further...

Speaking of the possible collapse of the dollar--I've also heard about buying up the yuan---the chinese unit of currency. The Chinese currency has gone up in value relative to the dollar, and their economy supposedly is exploding. The risk though that some speculate is its increasing so much, so fast that it may collapse from too quick a rise.

There would be absolutely no point in moving ot the yuan b/c its value is fixed as a multiple of the USD. The only way the value of the Yuan changes is if the Chinese central bank reevaluates the multiplier it used to tie itself to the USD. Realize that just buying up yuan and not investing it in chinese equities is proabably not much more advantageous than letting your dollars sit in a checking account.

Gold off 15 today!

If gold dips below 600, Im considering going in for 20-30 oz. (2-3 10oz Swiss Bars).

with gold near $630, it won't be long until your order is filled...

with gold near $630, it won't be long until your order is filled...

Jeebus, gold dropping again today! Yehaw!

$620, get it while its hot, errr, cold.

when it goes down to the $450-475 level, i might consider it...
You said you had some money invested in Indian Currency. Do you have any good web sources of info for this? I'm considering getting some indian currency myself. (I'm not Indian--but hey, money's money)

You said you had some money invested in Indian Currency. Do you have any good web sources of info for this? I'm considering getting some indian currency myself. (I'm not Indian--but hey, money's money)

hehe, i don't remember saying that i invested in indian currency per se, but i invest in indian companies, who make their profits in rupees (same with investing in european companies that earn euros - an effective "hedge" against the dollar). the only reason i'd buy indian currency is if i was taking a trip to india, and even then you get a better exchange rate by using an atm...

Cool, I didn't realize we had a new forum at SDN.

Anyway, in general, precious metals are a horrible investment. As mentioned earlier, the cost of storing, insuring, etc will eat away at any gains. Sure, they can serve as an inflation hedge, but there are better/cheaper ways (TIPS or TIPS funds). That being said, if you absolutely have to have exposure to precious metals, then you're better off buying a mutual fund that invests in metals related companies (Vanguard has a very good fund, but I believe it's currently closed to new investors) and the fund should not make up anymore than approx 2% of your portfolio.

This thread also demonstrates some dangerous investment behaviors (market timing, currency trading, etc). The key to success as an investor is to develop a low-cost well-diversified asset allocation (with domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, TIPS, real estate, maybe gold) that you'll be able to stick with through thick and then. That way, you automatically buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. Also, by investing in international institutions, you're spreading your risks around. I highly recommend such books as Bernstein's "4 Pillars of Investing" and Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet".

As for all the doom and gloom predictions, I think it's best to ignore them. These cycles of pessimism come and go. I'd like to point out that there have been legitimate threats that could've destroyed this country (Civil War, WWII, Cold War nuclear proliferation, etc.) and we've always survived. There is no serious threat right now (that doesn't mean there are no threats, but there are no apocalyptic threats).

And even if we do live to see this country and the world fall to ruin, I don't think some gold bars buried in my backyard will provide much comfort. I'll have much bigger things to worry about.

This thread also demonstrates some dangerous investment behaviors (market timing, currency trading, etc).

I was thinking of making a very similar post, but Cameron summed it up very nicely.

To somewhat complement Cameron's post, in general, when the mainstream media is screaming for everyone to do something, that is usually a contrarian indicator. It is usually a sign of what NOT to do.

I can't tell you how many times both informed news commentators as well as random people kept on insisting back in 1999 that Cisco with a PE of close to 100 was a screaming buy. People who had no knowledge of technology or stocks were trading stock tips. I think we all know what happened then...

In Boston, where I grew up, no one in the mainstream media was saying you should invest in real estate and flip houses.... not until around 2004. And if you bought in 2004 in Boston hoping to flip a house for a profit, chances are your investment is still on the market with a listing price that might be lower than how much you paid.

And then there's the legend that back in September 1929, Joe Kennedy Sr. was getting a shoeshine. The shoeshine boy, not even 10 years old, gave him a stock tip. At that moment, Kennedy knew that there was a bubble, and he sold everything a month before the crash in October.

The point is, by the time the mainstream media is touting some new idea, the big money has already been made. It is best to do what Cameron suggested - do your own due diligence and develop a realistic long-term investment strategy. Jumping on the latest investment craze being touted by Jim Cramer and the like is not investing... it is similar to gambling.

Good luck to all.

Gold got majorly hit today and last week. Now its under $600 an ounce? Anyone want to speculate if any when its going to make a comeback?

at 550 i might pick up a couple ounces, but if all the stuff in the middle east is (temporarily) resolved and the dow keeps going higher, gold will definately take a hit.

I wonder if the dow is really going to go up though ... there is talk that our current economic situation is similar to the tech crisis of 2000. Some think the stock market vs. actual economic value is inflated and are waiting for a "recession" back to normal valuation.

Bull market 2007? (http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20060906005712&newsLang=en) as well as HSBC's analysis (http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/news/economy/recession.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006090811)

But those seem in the minority compared to some others (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B925769FF-8495-471D-8334-2EC882D28DFC%7D&siteid=).


Anywho, about speculation of the drop in gold (http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/11/markets/gold.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006091113) ...

I think a lot of what's going on in speculation bull.

There were news reports that there was a recent oil find in the gulf of Mexico. Supposedly the oil from this find won't be available for years, but news reports are saying this contributed to the drop in metals & prices.

The middle east situation with Iran isn't resolved. There's talks going on. So what? There's been talks going on for months. There's been no mention as to why the talking going on now is supposedly better.

But anyways, specualtion bull is the type of thing which can make you a quick buck.

lol, the quick buck is having picked up some shares of genentech today after people panicked for no good reason...

Cool, I didn't realize we had a new forum at SDN.

Anyway, in general, precious metals are a horrible investment. As mentioned earlier, the cost of storing, insuring, etc will eat away at any gains. Sure, they can serve as an inflation hedge, but there are better/cheaper ways (TIPS or TIPS funds). That being said, if you absolutely have to have exposure to precious metals, then you're better off buying a mutual fund that invests in metals related companies (Vanguard has a very good fund, but I believe it's currently closed to new investors) and the fund should not make up anymore than approx 2% of your portfolio.

This thread also demonstrates some dangerous investment behaviors (market timing, currency trading, etc). The key to success as an investor is to develop a low-cost well-diversified asset allocation (with domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, TIPS, real estate, maybe gold) that you'll be able to stick with through thick and then. That way, you automatically buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. Also, by investing in international institutions, you're spreading your risks around. I highly recommend such books as Bernstein's "4 Pillars of Investing" and Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet".

As for all the doom and gloom predictions, I think it's best to ignore them. These cycles of pessimism come and go. I'd like to point out that there have been legitimate threats that could've destroyed this country (Civil War, WWII, Cold War nuclear proliferation, etc.) and we've always survived. There is no serious threat right now (that doesn't mean there are no threats, but there are no apocalyptic threats).

And even if we do live to see this country and the world fall to ruin, I don't think some gold bars buried in my backyard will provide much comfort. I'll have much bigger things to worry about.

Amen. Incidentally, anything that makes up less than 5% of the portfolio will have almost no effect on the portfolio.

absolutely not true. i once had a small position that just blew up, and went from being like 2% to 30% of my portfolio.

The price of metals for the last week has been acting almost completely dependently on the price of oil.

As for the price of oil, its current price seems to be right now mostly on speculation.

So again its all speculation bull.

Interesting thoughts. I've been avoiding actual physical metal but using metal mutual funds. E.g. slv---IShare's fund for silver.

This morning oil has been up, but right now its in a hovering pattern. There's no way to tell if it'll go up or down because its reacting to a lot of BS.

Everything we invest in follows this rule:
There's no way to tell if it'll go up or down because its reacting to a lot of BS.


I did mortgage banking for 8 years; anytime I heard a client try to explain to me that rates were going up or down, and ask me what I thought I simply replied, "Anyone that can tell you rates are going up or down, that you actually listen to, ought to be calling you from their 100+ ft yacht in the Caribbean. If they know where the rates are going, they better be that rich"

The same is for oil, or "oil shale" that I have seen on this post. I laugh when I see such dogmatic advice.

Now, there are key indicators that help one get an idea, based upon key market occurrences, like the following:

National Association of Purchasing Manufactures Figures
Beige Book
PPI (before CPI)
Weekly Jobless claims
Housing starts
Etc
Etc

I used economic calendars which would tell me what time key figures would be released. Then there were predictions, which did not always hold true. However, if I needed to lock a client in on a 1mil+ loan, all I could do is let them know what is coming, but I couldn't predict the outcome.

However in my 8 years, the closest prediction on the trends of real estate, mortgage-securities, treasuries and Muni bonds was Bill Gross.

In terms of market - that's a cycle, like the 5yr survival rate on cancer. Why Oil was <$16/barrel 4 yrs ago, and why more likely than not, it will be < $40/barrel in the next 1.5-2 years, regardless of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel, etc.

**** happens. The housing market - who would ever have thought it would decrease? Well, we go back again to the Dutch tulip market, 1927/29 and 1999/2000 NASDAQ. Not since the 80s in Orange County or the Houston Oil crisis in the late 80s did we see real estate fall.

So - while I don't give advice, just remember; finances and economics occur in cycles, and we cannot predict the future. Who would have thought 911 was going to happen. Yeah - I got a call from a client about the rates dropping: I told that client he should use another banker - I was not going to help him with his opportunistic view on the day the tragedy occurred.

Anyway - keep it simple; unless you take 8 yrs off and go into business, just do the basics. If you want to trade gold - make sure you have a friend that buys and sells $100k per month and ask his advice. I have that friend; but I choose not to buy Gold because I am back in fellowship and have no time to look at price/ounce on a daily basis.

Diversify:
1) Mutuals for equity; include mixed, income, aggressive
2) Mutuals for bonds - mortgages, treasuries, mixed bond: yield
3) Foreign Mutuals
4) Reits
5) You home as real estate
6) Private equity if you have $50K to risk
7) Your own office or equipment

Good luck to all.

I'm going to reverse what I mentioned before. I'm thinking not to touch metals now.

THe price of metals is tied to the price of oil which has dropped tremendously, and there's no way to determine exactly when it will level out.

good. now go out and picked up some beaten up, undervalued oil & gas stocks...valero, anyone?

good. now go out and picked up some beaten up, undervalued oil & gas stocks...valero, anyone?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CNBC/TVReports/HedgeFundDropsFiveBillionDollars.aspx?GT1=8579

How do you lose $5 billion in one week?

Risky bets on natural gas prices threaten to swamp one of the nation's biggest hedge funds.

Amaranth Advisors violated a cardinal rule of investing: Never make a trade that could put you out of business.

The Greenwich, Conn.-based hedge fund was scrambling to raise cash after a wrong-way wager on natural gas cost it roughly half of its $9.5 billion portfolio.

Losses swelled by another $1.4 billion this week as the firm unloaded assets at a discount to avoid a shutdown, Bloomberg reports.

The firm gave its energy-trading portfolio to other investors and sold unidentified investments, according to Bloomberg. The transactions eliminated further losses on natural gas and "helped us avoid termination of our credit facilities and the risk of a consequent forced liquidation by our creditors," Amaranth founder Nicholas Maounis said in a letter sent to investors on Sept. 20.

Amaranth made about $1 billion last year, when energy prices were going up. But its energy desk failed to predict the extent of the recent downturn in natural gas prices.

The trade that led to the huge loss was attributed to 32-year-old Brian Hunter, an experienced energy trader who headed Amaranth's energy desk for the past five months. His trades brought in $800 million for the firm last year, and Hunter pocketed at least $75 million in compensation, according to Trader Monthly magazine.

Hunter's downturn was as sudden as it was shocking. He was up about $2 billion as recently as the end of August, The Wall Street Journal reports. Then Hunter's trades lost $5 billion in about a week.

Hunter thrived on volatility, reaping profits on price declines and surges alike, the Journal reports. But late last week, Hunter watched with growing alarm as gas prices took a steep dive, particularly in futures contracts for delivery of gas for this coming winter.

"(Hunter) thought he knew what the market was doing," says Journal editor Phil Kuntz, who worked on the newspaper's coverage of the Amaranth debacle. "The commodities market is very, very volatile. You make a lot of money very, very quickly but you can lose a lot of money very quickly," Kuntz adds. "(Hunter) made about $1 billion in April. He lost a bunch of money in May, then he made a bunch of money back. He had a great August -– by the end of August (the Amaranth trading desk) was up upwards of 20% (year to date) but then they took a big hit in the course of a week in September."

Fund investors feeling the sting of Amaranth's recent losses include Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, pension funds and individual investors.

Amaranth is the second hedge fund in the last month to be whipsawed by the volatile energy markets. MotherRock, a $400 million fund run by former New York Mercantile Exchange President Bo Collins, lost all of its investors' capital last month when it mistimed the natural gas markets.

Wall Street was waiting to see where the next shoe would drop.

"You're going to see (a ripple effect) in September results, when the funds of (hedge) funds start reporting results," says the Wall Street Journal's Kuntz. "You're going to see it in other institutional investors, like pension funds. They're going to be taking huge hits from this."

"There are also winners on the other side of it," Kuntz says. "Some of the big Wall Street firms were taking essentially the opposite side -– not of specific bets that Brian Hunter and Amaranth were taking but taking basically the opposite view of the market. They made a lot of money in the last month."

Hedge-fund insiders say the sheer number of competitors chasing returns can lead some traders to assume outsized risks. "It's hard to find ideas that aren't picked over, and harder to get real returns and differentiate yourself," says hedge-fund manager Steve Cohen. "We're entering into a new environment. The days of big returns are gone."

Other insiders point to what they see as a lack of talent running some of the 7,000 hedge funds in the United States. "There's $1 trillion, and possibly $1.5 trillion, in capital in hedge funds, and there's certainly not enough talent to shepherd that capital adequately, and certainly not talent to justify the fees," says Antoine Bernheim, president of Dome Capital Management, which advises European institutional and private investors on their hedge fund portfolios. Bernheim also publishes Hedge Fund News, a quarterly newsletter that tracks the industry.

This week's implosion was not the first for Hunter, says Kuntz. "He had a previous blowup at Deutsche Bank that the CEO of Amaranth told us they were quite aware of when they hired him. They said they ran the checks and he completely checked out," Kuntz says. "They prided themselves on their risk management."

lol, i'm pretty sure that you weren't referencing my post specifically, but i must say that there's a big difference in making speculative, leveraged bets on commodity futures and making a (hopefully) long-term investment in a highly profitable company that might be undervalued. i'm feeling the pain though - my cost for the shares is about $65, and it's trading around $49 right now...ouch!

No, it was jocomama talking about how you can listen to someone on commodities unless they're calling you from their boat in the Caribbean (that guy got paid ~$75million last year), and then your sarcastic energy quote. Just more on the sarcasm.

I think its safe to say that at least for the next few weeks, metals will not be a good investment.

They had a good, strong bull run for several months--up until the oil price crash.

Oil prices are expected to continue to fall at least for now. The price of metals are tied to the price of oil--so expect them to fall as the price of oil falls.

Good thing I got out of metals. I lost a little--then sold all my stuff. I didn't brave it out and stay in--which if I did--I would've lost big time.,

Well, if prices are indeed dropping, then this would be the perfect time to invest in precious metals (by that, I mean buying and physically taking delivery of the metal, not stocks or longs/shorts).

So far, it's worked well for me.

The key for me is to hold onto it for a year or more to see if I can turn a profit. Actually, I probably want to accumulate it and hoard it for many years before selling.

misfit

if your holding period is many years (as it should be for most investments), then you will essentially lose money on this investment, barring a catastrophic event that makes gold prices shoot through the roof. historically, gold has only appreciated at the same rate as inflation, so if you were buying fair priced gold today for $1, it should be worth about $1 (in purchasing power; it could be like $50 total) 20 years later. but at this point, you're not buying fairly priced gold - it is still at a high. so i can't see how you'd profit. maybe i'm wrong - hopefully i'm not

Gold did well over the past 2 years. The price of oil and the devaluation of the dollar did much to fuel the bull run.

I jumped onto this bull run at the tail end--then the oil prices crashed. So I lost money--but pulled out before I lost too much.

So then I took some time to reevaluate what happened. Right now the price of metals (silver & gold) are almost directly tied to the price of oil.

So since I figured this out, I've been riding the volatility of the market to do some short term investments. For example--TRE-a silver mining company has had a lot of volatility--shooting between 4.60 to 5.50 every few days.

Its not exactly a safe long term investment, but its been working for now.

Long term-the expectation at this point is that oil will go up again in the long term. OPEC announced it won't allow it to go below $50, and they're cutting 1 million bpd, with a planned anouncement tomorrow--which I think will probably cause it to spike tomorrow. The winter season will also cause it to rise, but for the next few weeks I think it'll hover around the same price of even decrease a llittle more after tomorrow's OPEC announcement.

Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

While investing in stocks can be risky a la 1929, I also think investing in gold is kinda silly. So if the paper economy goes down, we're going to deal in gold?

Maybe if one wanted to diversify their portfolio, but I wouldn't put much stock in gold. Google is a better investment at this point!

Gold may yet make another bull run. It'll definitely not be now. Factor in winter oil demand, OPEC, and the possible threat of North Korea.

However, also factor in that winter oil demand (which will definitely happen) may not be as bad as expected.

For now, if you're into short term investing, the volatility of the oil market is working pretty well. 2 7% gains for myself in the past 3 weeks.

Here is another interesting article about trends in gold, by a PhD in econometrics. Good readin'

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/html/gold.htm

While investing in stocks can be risky a la 1929, I also think investing in gold is kinda silly. So if the paper economy goes down, we're going to deal in gold?

Maybe if one wanted to diversify their portfolio, but I wouldn't put much stock in gold. Google is a better investment at this point!


Gold actually has been doing well the past week. I may have waited a bit too long to get back on the metal bandwagon.

Gold has more uses than being simply dealed in place of paper money. Since its value is supposed to be based on real value and not on faith, it becomes a good investment if the value of your country's currency goes down.

There is also real demand for gold for various applications. Jewelry, domestic products, industrial products etc--many of which require gold.

The economy will probably never get to the point where paper money goes down the drain and gold takes it place--short of something on the order of a Road Warrior like armageddon. However like any commodity--it has real use and value.

I guess I find it more practical to invest in things I use. I don't wear much jewelry ;)

Just to let you know---Gold is a great investment in a bear economy. Like Cramer says--There's a bull market everywhere. Bulls make money, Bears make money, hogs lose money (meaning don't sit on an investment that's gone up quite a bit--sell it off unless you have strong reason to believe it'll still go up).

I'd suggest you open your mind up to gold and other metals to diversify your portfolio and investment skills. If you plan on investing long term, you should have some back ups in case the market makes some unforseen turn for worse. Gold is a good one in that case.

This thread is a good example as to why doctors should generally not be in charge of their own investments. Buying gold is for people who have no idea what they're doing. Buying gold bullion instead of gold stocks is for people who especially have no idea what they're doing.

These are gimmicks that you usually see on infomercials, not worthwhile "investment" options. Either invest in a good mutual fund, or read a few books by Peter Lynch or Warren Buffett.

Investing in gold can only make money for short spurts... it is not a long-term investment for anyone on the planet. And when gold bullion does well (a rarity), gold stocks will do much, much, much better.

That is, if the price of gold bullion rises by 50%, the price of gold stocks will quadruple or better. It's called "financial leverage".

There is no serious investor you've ever seen or heard of who buys gold bullion or considers it a valid investment choice. It's for quacks, scammers, and the gullible who fall victim to these people.

Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....
If it's everywhere you turn, then you know it's crap. And just because "some doc in your hospital" is a gullible imbecile, doesn't mean that you have to follow him. That is truly the blind leading the blind!

I'm willing to admit that gold bullion would be worth more than money in a bank account or brokerage account in the event of nuclear winter. But in that case, guns and bullets would have been a better investment than gold bullion.

:idea: Why not just stock up on a few hundred semi-automatic handguns as a long-term investment?

If you plan on investing long term, you should have some back ups in case the market makes some unforseen turn for worse. Gold is a good one in that case.

i disagree - if you're investing for the long term, you don't really care if the market makes a turn for the worse - in fact, this is when you should be buying! i know that i'm starting to sound like the berkshire chairmans letter, but if you're going to be a net saver (buyer), then you shouldn't really want the market to go up, since you can't buy anything cheap. the recent runup in the dow has been great in that my statement shows larger numbers, but the amount i'm starting to have in cash is building up too, because i can't find anything worth buying! so it's ultra-short-term options trading for me now...

If it's everywhere you turn, then you know it's crap. And just because "some doc in your hospital" is a gullible imbecile, doesn't mean that you have to follow him. That is truly the blind leading the blind!

I'm willing to admit that gold bullion would be worth more than money in a bank account or brokerage account in the event of nuclear winter. But in that case, guns and bullets would have been a better investment than gold bullion.

:idea: Why not just stock up on a few hundred semi-automatic handguns as a long-term investment?

I believe this doc also a nice collection of modified AR-15s. The end of days may not be that far off. In the event of a terror strike that can pull off low yield nukes in major US cities, all the cotton crap we are calling 'money' would be worthless.

I believe this doc also a nice collection of modified AR-15s. The end of days may not be that far off. In the event of a terror strike that can pull off low yield nukes in major US cities, all the cotton crap we are calling 'money' would be worthless.

In that case, once again, the guns will be worth a lot more than sticks of gold. There is little or no inherent value to gold, other than being (not so) rare. Tickle Me Elmos are rarer than gold, but you don't see (many) people hording those!

In that case, once again, the guns will be worth a lot more than sticks of gold. There is little or no inherent value to gold, other than being (not so) rare. Tickle Me Elmos are rarer than gold, but you don't see (many) people hording those!

Actually, it's not the guns, but bullets that would be the currency.

Actually, it's not the guns, but bullets that would be the currency.

I didn't say guns would be the currency, just that they'd be worth a lot more than gold. Gold couldn't possibly ever be a currency, is he going to make little coins out of those blocks he had shipped to him on a train?

Agreed that bullets would be the basic "currency", but working guns would hold their value just as well for the "big purchases". Gold would just getcha killed by gold bugs trying to invade your property and take it for themselves.

Anyone hording gold better have 100x the guns and 100x the ammunition of everyone else, because they're going to need it when the very situation arises that they had been preparing for.

Investing in gold doesn't work the way you're making it out to be, and knowing this is basic investment knowledge.

Anyone in a country who's currency becomes worth less is in a situation where investing in gold is a good thing.

In case you didn't know this, currencies change value depending on several factors such as the country's economy, the country decision on how much money is printed, etc. Gold's market value is hardly dependent on an individual nation's currency stituation.

And it also changes based on the basic demand for gold, which will fluctuate. Silver for example is in more demand because it is required to make circuits, CDs & DVDs.

If you've been investing in gold in the past 2 weeks you would've hit it off big. If you read my last post--which was right after the drop in oil prices--metals dropped big time. Now they're back and strong, maybe stronger than ever.

AUY-has gone up quite a bit.
RIO-gone up

Both are companies that are mining metals. Why did they go up? Because the value of the dollar has gone down. Since gold is considered a commodity, who's value is not destroyed if a country's currency goes down, its value won't be dragged down. I.E.--you got a life vest that'll keep you up, and if you're real good--it'll fly you up into the air.

RIOs stock value should be a good long term investment because the US dollar is expected to further weaken in the next few months, the demand for metals are expected to increase due to the rapid industrialization/globalization of China & India--who will then in turn need more metals for industrial applications, and add to that--RIO is in Brazil and their economy is improving. RIO is a company that primarily mines metals. So that stock has several factors--
the country where its in--they're doing well-stock goes up
value of metals go up-stock goes up
China & India will increase demand and price of metals--stock goes up
US dollar value will go down--stock goes up
Finally it is a company with top level fundamentals in Brazil--and no I do not own this stock though I am considering buying it.

Gold is not a commodity you simply need to take up if there's a nuclear winter. The value of the US dollar gets you half the Euros it would've gotten you just a few years ago. Our country's currency if you haven't figured it out is getting worse and worse each month for the past several years.

Remember Cramer's saying: Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered. Bears are just as likely to make mad money if they are expecting the worst to happen, just as much as Bulls are expecting to make mad money expecting the best to happen.

If you have the art of figuring out when to be a bull or a bear, you're ahead of someone who can only be 1.

If you bought gold a few year's ago you would've more than quadrupled your money, and its back to the pre oil drop prices. It would've gotten you money faster and bigger than AAPL which is considered one of the strongest blue chips on the market.

Investing in metals or in broader terms--betting your country's currency will go down is a smart thing to do now and does not have to be limited to simply buying metals. You could own for example own foreign stocks, metal mining companies or do FOREX.

i've only got one stock that gives me exposure to commodities in my portfolio - mittal steel (MT). i only bought it because i wanted to feel like a steel tycoon. turns out, it was a pretty good investment too.

Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

Who've you been talking to, old indian grandmas?

LADoc00 mentioned this right around when gold hits its peak. It then dropped tremendously (hoped you didn't buy too much gold LADoc00). However since it dropped its back up.

My own taste is to not buy gold but to to buy stocks and mutual funds that work on metals instead. Storing gold is a pain in the butt, its a security risk (imagine if people found out you had 10s of thousands in metals in your basement?), you got to spend a lot of money in buying a safe and other security stuff, and the shipping is a pain.

For example, instead of buying silver (which IMHO has more speculative chance of increase vs gold, and its price fluctuations almost match gold perfectly), buy SLV--a fund whose value almost perfectly mimics the price of silver. That way you don't have to worry about having thousands in metals that could be stolen and you can avoid the shipping fees.

My own metals picks: SLV, TRE (does silver mining)-silver
AUY-gold (best of the breed among gold mine stocks)
RIO-does various metals but is based in Brazil, whose economy is skyrocketing, while our own is slipping--another good reason to buy it. Also considered a best of breed stock for its class.

Don't own any of them, but I am considering going in. I did own TRE, but sold it prematurely. Its since gone up way more after I sold it.

the market has it's ups and downs - if you have a long enough time horizon, you won't have to worry about them and hedge with gold.

Im hearing this everywhere, literally everyone. Dump real estate, stocks, bonds, the entire porfolio and buy bullion from goldline.com. This is scaring the crap out of me, anyone else in the market hearing this? Its almost everywhere I turn, some doc in my hospital just plunkered down $1 million to buy bullion....

That Butters avi is killing me. It matches the histeria of the post, I can only imagine you as Butters :scared: :laugh: :scared:

i was just thinking about this thread the other day, seeing as how gold is back up to $675/oz

So you're telling me to invest heavily in something that goes up and down in the short term, but over the long term has had something of about a 3% return after everything's said and done? No thanks.

All my investing is for 5 years or longer, in products that have a good 5, 10, or even 20 year track record. They're diversified in several different mutual funds and some other stable items.

If the economy does collapse(which isn't gonna happen anytime soon. there have been a TON of naysayers for years and years, all saying that the market would crash at some specified date. When that date came and went, so did they.), you're gold isn't worth beans. In fact, beans would be worth more. According to a very rich financial advisor I trust, in every recorded incident where an economy collapsed, the first thing to rise from the ashes was a barter system. No one cares about money, paper or otherwise at first. They care about survival.
Gold has some "cool" factor to it, and it also appears to have credibility because we *used* to be on the gold standard.

If you're so worried about the US economy, there are plenty of foreign Mutual funds out there that are stable.

Not to mention the fact that all those "buy Gold" radio adverts and encdorsements you hear on talk radio and other stations are purchased with some very high pressure tactics. The methods vary, but they all include a script and a nice endorsement check, which the radio show host probably cashes and puts in a mutual fund.....

So you're telling me to invest heavily in something that goes up and down in the short term, but over the long term has had something of about a 3% return after everything's said and done? No thanks.

All my investing is for 5 years or longer, in products that have a good 5, 10, or even 20 year track record. They're diversified in several different mutual funds and some other stable items.

If the economy does collapse(which isn't gonna happen anytime soon. there have been a TON of naysayers for years and years, all saying that the market would crash at some specified date. When that date came and went, so did they.), you're gold isn't worth beans. In fact, beans would be worth more. According to a very rich financial advisor I trust, in every recorded incident where an economy collapsed, the first thing to rise from the ashes was a barter system. No one cares about money, paper or otherwise at first. They care about survival.
Gold has some "cool" factor to it, and it also appears to have credibility because we *used* to be on the gold standard.

If you're so worried about the US economy, there are plenty of foreign Mutual funds out there that are stable.

Not to mention the fact that all those "buy Gold" radio adverts and encdorsements you hear on talk radio and other stations are purchased with some very high pressure tactics. The methods vary, but they all include a script and a nice endorsement check, which the radio show host probably cashes and puts in a mutual fund.....

with an intraday drop of 500 on the dow, things look like they might start to go downhill. time to put those cash positions to work.

I'm not worried about a one day drop. I'm looking at the long term, remember?

97% of any rolling 5 year period of the stock market has a positive return.
100% of all ten year periods have a positive return.

Funny thing, but the Dow had a record high the same week as the State of the Union address, I barely heard about it on the mainstream newsies.

Bottom line, negativity sells. The "sky is falling" will always get attention. Stock market aside, people love to worry about crap. If it's not their life, it's a soap opera or some movie star entering rehab for insulting someone's brother's dog's puppie's choice of chew toy.

Long term, gang. Long term.

I'm not worried about a one day drop. I'm looking at the long term, remember?

97% of any rolling 5 year period of the stock market has a positive return.
100% of all ten year periods have a positive return.

Funny thing, but the Dow had a record high the same week as the State of the Union address, I barely heard about it on the mainstream newsies.

Bottom line, negativity sells. The "sky is falling" will always get attention. Stock market aside, people love to worry about crap. If it's not their life, it's a soap opera or some movie star entering rehab for insulting someone's brother's dog's puppie's choice of chew toy.

Long term, gang. Long term.

well, if you're in it for the long haul like i am, then you definately want this drop to continue more. i'm hoping that the brokers get hammered more, so that i can pull the trigger on gs when its p/e hits 8 - i've been waiting to get into this for a while.

LOL, kinda like there's a sale going on!

:laugh: After reading this post I could definitely tell this is a forum of future "Docs" and not people in the investment industry. Investing in gold is a waste of money, all those books and articles you read about the collapse of the dollar are just some nut-economist's conspiracy theory. Buying gold is something that paranoid retired senior citizens do, I always laugh at those commercials that are on at 4AM trying to take advantage of old people and put their money in gold. If you want to make gains ony your investments you need to look for opportunity in the market, investing in gold is just a waste of your time.

:laugh: After reading this post I could definitely tell this is a forum of future "Docs" and not people in the investment industry. Investing in gold is a waste of money, all those books and articles you read about the collapse of the dollar are just some nut-economist's conspiracy theory. Buying gold is something that paranoid retired senior citizens do, I always laugh at those commercials that are on at 4AM trying to take advantage of old people and put their money in gold. If you want to make gains ony your investments you need to look for opportunity in the market, investing in gold is just a waste of your time.

i think most of the people here are advising against buying gold. however, i'm not going to complain when someone calls me a future doc - it's what i'm shooting for, after all.

If you had invested $1 in the following assets in the early 1800's, by the 1990's your dollar investment would have grown to:


...you'd also be dead.

I think the buying gold is a waste of time. Looking at the price of gold as one short term indicator of how the economy is doing is another ( dont forget the GDP,CPI, IR rates, ect). Gold is pretty much fixed and the price fluctuates on how well the dollar is doing. Me personally I would forget about gold. I would look at the inflation yield graph. If its near vertical and linear get your money out. As Jim Cramer says," Theres a bull market somewhere." lol

i just bought the GF a gold ring and almost dropped when i heard how much the price has increased in the last year. insanity

my brother just started an internship at morgan stanley in the commodities department, so i think i'm going to start looking in to it - not for my personal investing purposes, but because it sounds interesting...

So would now be a good time to liquidate the 17.4 kg of bullion I stash in a suitcase in my closet? :confused:

(Don't worry, I have a lock on the zipper.)

I'm just asking 'cause I noticed that it's at $808/oz as of last week.

i don't know...i have a feeling it might go closer to the $900 range with oil hitting $100/bl, until china puts their reserves to action to save the dollar. and they will do that, because they probably rely on a high dollar more than anyone else. meanwhile, enjoy the nice bargains you are getting in the equities markets, particularly in the financial sector.

$900+/oz would be amazing. I obviously don't have a ton to sell, but I'd like to let go of some. I'll wait a little longer.

$900+/oz would be amazing. I obviously don't have a ton to sell, but I'd like to let go of some. I'll wait a little longer.

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities  that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future  will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders, 2000.

Precious metals and commodities FTW until 2009 at least

tax+insurance to buy gold is pretty high
sucks if you missed buying a few weeks ago.

and gold plummets to 920 :laugh:

and gold plummets to 920 :laugh:


nothing goes straight up. I figure it will pull back to the low 800 range before forming another base and trading to new highs. I'm waiting to load the truck up.

If you had bought iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) on the date of the original post in this thread, you would have had a ~40% return today. Your $6,411 investment would have been worth $9,852 now. That's nothing to ridicule.

Unfortunately, I didn't buy gold (even though I agreed with original sentiment/reasoning). Damnit.

Fundamental weaknesses in the dollar and the US economy aren't changing. Gold and commodities will continue to be hedges. Both are on steady uptrends--no telling how much they'll pull back for now