Alright,
What does everyone think the lowest price for oil will be in $/barrel over the next year? Oil is currently at 58$/barrel

I'm going to guess 50$/barrel...

I'm expecting at least 5 other votes in my poll representing 80% of everyone who reads this forum...

ttac

i'd say $45 before the cartel gets involved...

I don't think its going to go much lower but that is just a guess. With winter closing in and even though its expected to be a mild winter with a mild el nino hovering around I don't think we will see prices below $50-5. WIth that said I'm putting $52 as its in the middle of them.

And hey, right now its 20% each for the 5 votes :laugh:

IMO oil is temporarily oversold and will rebound here... I think the ethanol stocks are also in an oversold condition (stkl, peix, gsct.ob come to mind) and as a result I have bought 222,222 shares of gsct.ob at 0.040$ to play the bounce.

FYI I have played gsct.ob (formerly vrdm.ob) 3 times before and have been 3 for 3 on it before...

Do not try this at home.

ttac

IMHO the price cannot be accurately predicted to a specific degree because the forces controllilng the price right now are largely politcal.

OK, lets cut out the out of the ordinary things that can whack the market up. E.g. terrorist attacks to the degree where they really mess up the economy.

OPEC stated they do not want oil to fall below $50. They probably will do something big time if it goes below $55. They've already started to do things--they state they'll cut production because the price in their minds is falling too fast.

So this is not a matter where true market forces are at stake. The people who control the valve stated they will tighten the flow.

But where will they tighten it? Based on what they say, it'll probably be somewhere at or above $50, but won't be above $60. However even the nations of OPEC don't fully agree on a specific point.

Throw in that several of the cycles in the past few weeks have largely been based on speculators thinking the price would eventually stabilize, yada yada yada.

Other factors to consider is the increased demand for oil that occurs in late fall to winter--which will drive prices up, that the White House is trying to prevent OPEC from tightening the flow &

So this ain't a simple supply vs demand thing. Politics & speculation are interfering.

Bottom line from Whopper: it won't below past $55, and may go up again come late fall or early winter, but for the time being, it'll be a tug of war as to where it will be--it'll probably fluctuate heavily around between $58-65 for the next few weeks.

Ethanol: I think its a dead industry. Corn ethanol is not better for the environment (sugar ethanol is, but its not a viable ethanol source in the US) and it costs more than gas. By the time ethanol could actually go somewhere, other alternative sources will come in. At some point all the environmentalists who push for it will realize its actually not beneficial for the environment. It'd take decades before ethanol could actually become a fuel source cheaper & better than gas, but by that time fuel cells will probably be viable. In the meantime, no one will want to fill up their car for something that costs more and their car will not run as well on it.

Ethanol though I think for the short term may benefit from higher spikes in oil prices--because people don't get that it won't become a viable fuel source.

Ethanol though I think for the short term may benefit from higher spikes in oil prices--because people don't get that it won't become a viable fuel source.

Agreed. Long term ethanol is not the wave of the future... I don't think we'll see a fleet of E85 vehicles rumbling down the NJ Turnpike anytime soon... but I am merely playing it for the speculative bounce that I think a bounce in oil prices will give it... Time frame is maybe 1 month.

ttac

According to Consumer Reports--drivers will not want to fill up on E85 when its more expensive than gas. Car companies have used tax credits earned by making E85 vehicles and shifted the savings to making cheaper SUVs that don't use E85--which in turn has caused more fuel inefficient vehicles on the road. Consumer Reports had this in their last issue.

The conspiricist in me wonders if this was actually the intent of the bill that allowed for E85 incentives. It would be the perfect stealth bill. It looks like its green, but actually allows for more oil consumption.

Further, while corn ethanol does have fewer CO2 emissions, it has more nitrous oxide emissions which also are greenhouse gases. Bottom line, its not better for the environment in the global warming sense.

For the nation to create a viable ethanol infrastructure (ethanol cannot be mixed in the current gasoline infrastructre), the cost in fuel to make this infrastructure will actually dramatic increase the amount of greenhouse gases for at least a few years according to Investor's Business Daily.

I never revealed this to the board, but I am a passionate environmentalist. I recycle, I drive a Prius, I get any styrofoam I don't use and reuse it or bring it to a packaging store for them to reuse it.----But I'm not an emotionalistic environmentalist. I try to do it based on practicality and evidenced based science. Environmentalists like most demographics (to make this fair & balanced, other demographics such as the religious right also) have an emotionalistic whip that push the movement in illogical ways.

Ethanol is not the way to go. The only problem keeping people from realizing this is that politicians want to carry Iowa which is big corn producer, so every election time, you get a round of politicians promising to push corn ethanol in Iowa and won't address the truth.

I totally agree with you... ethanol imho was utterly hyped because, well, the powers that be could make money off of it. I don't think it is the wave of the future, but I do believe that oil is temporarily oversold, and as it bounces, so with ethanol.

Thanks for your thoughts, however. I don't have much more to contribute since you obviously know more than I do re: ethanol...

ttac

IMO OPEC will cut production by 1M barrels, and oil will rise on monday. Should be good for my speculative ethanol play...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/08/news/international/bc.energy.opec.reut/

OPEC ready to cut oil supply
Ministers committing to 1 million barrel a day production cut in effort to reduce stockpiles.
October 8 2006: 1:42 PM EDT


ALGIERS, Algeria (Reuters) -- OPEC is expected to make formal Monday a deal to remove 1 million barrels a day of crude from oversupplied markets, an OPEC source said, as ministers lined up to support the cut.

Iran, OPEC's second biggest producer, and Algeria on Sunday publicly backed the reduction, OPEC's first since April 2004. The plan was made public on Thursday by a senior OPEC delegate.

"I think there is more or less consensus for 1 million bpd," OPEC President Edmund Daukoru told Reuters by telephone Sunday. "The reference point is the (official) 28 million bpd ceiling."

An OPEC source said Daukoru had written to oil ministers in the last two days seeking their backing for the supply curbs.

"It is expected that there will be a decision on Monday to cut one million barrels per day from the official ceiling after consultations between the ministers," the source told Reuters

Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil also said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had reached a consensus to lower output. This would have a positive impact on the market, he added.

<snip>

http://www.xsltblog.com/archives/24805BP~The-Simpsons-Mr-Burns-Excellent.jpg

ttac

TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...

Maybe you should try gold or silver.

Gold and silver's price is almost directly correlated to the price of oil now.

TRE & AUY are repsectively silver & gold mining companies--also who's prices are pretty much very much tied to the price of gold & silver.

Gold & silver will always be universally accepted. Ethanol at some point will be dumped for good.

BOOYAH...
oil is going up tomorrow.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-10-09T032851Z_01_SP71046_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-KOREA-MARKETS-OIL-COL.XML&archived=False

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear

ttac

TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...


This is strictly a short-term trade. I repeat... a short-term (like weeks or less) trade.

Oil is going up tomorrow, thanks to opec and North Korea's test.

ttac

TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...

Maybe you should try gold or silver.

Gold and silver's price is almost directly correlated to the price of oil now.

TRE & AUY are repsectively silver & gold mining companies--also who's prices are pretty much very much tied to the price of gold & silver.

Gold & silver will always be universally accepted. Ethanol at some point will be dumped for good.

If you want gold, I'd go for KRY... one of the best daytraders in my group is long 20K at 2.69... (not a big position for him... usually plays with 100,000$ positions, tho)

ttac

Oil went up, but only briefly.

IMHO, it will go up, when the winter market demands starts kicking in--which will be in a few short weeks.

Looks like the bulls were able to shrug off OPEC's production cuts and the N. Korea rantings.

The stock I was riding on--TRE to profit off the anticipated oil spike--went up to 5.14 today. I sold it at 5.08. I thought it would've gone higher, I was wrong, but I still made some decent money. I bought it at 4.67.

yeah, a little disappointing...
oh well... may bail tomorrow. We'll see. Oil probably has more weakness to come.

btw how many shares are you trading, and how long were you holding tre? since oct 4th? you can pm if you want.

ttac

Dammit!!!

Oil may hit 55$...

guess OPEC has somewhat lost the power to put fear in the oil markets...
oh well, at least my gsct.ob is up.

ttac

Oil went up, but only briefly.

IMHO, it will go up, when the winter market demands starts kicking in--which will be in a few short weeks.

Looks like the bulls were able to shrug off OPEC's production cuts and the N. Korea rantings.

The stock I was riding on--TRE to profit off the anticipated oil spike--went up to 5.14 today. I sold it at 5.08. I thought it would've gone higher, I was wrong, but I still made some decent money. I bought it at 4.67.

Nice trade!
looks like you were close to catching the top. I bet it pulls back to 4.75

ttac

I don't mind posting it. I'm working with about $5000 worth of TRE stock. About 1/3 of my stock portfolio. I got another $6000 in a side business where I sell toys online. Not to brag but I'm almost spot on with my toy business in terms of picking future hits, but the problem with the toy business is that I sell on Ebay and can only sell a few toys a week. So if I buy for example 50 action figures, I got to sit on them for about 6 months, and I end up selling them for 4-6x their value but can only sell a maybe 1 a week.

I'm trying to get a hold of Playstation 3's to sell in my toy business. I got 5 preordered. Hoping for more. If it sells as well as Xbox 360--then I'm in the money. If not, I can just return them to the store at no loss.

I made 2 runs on TRE in the past month that ranged from about 4.65 to 5.08 I could've made 3 but I took a vacation in Europe and internet access costed me about $10 for 15 minutes (the exchange rate now blows). Add to that the european keyboards were freakin annoying and my wife didn't want me spending time daytrading when we could've been seeing the Eiffel tower.

I'm currently waiting for it to drop again to about the 4.60 level. I'm confident it will based on the current volatility with oil. ITs been staying steady at a little over 5 now.

Be careful if you plan on using this play. I've done my research on it--you haven't. Always double check before you jump in yourself. I can't be held responsible if it doesn't work out for you. Another thing is a few times it dipped, it didn't quite get to the 4.60 level. A few times it hit about 4.75-4.80. You'd certainly feel like a shmuck if you missed a 4.75-5.10 run. So if you limit buy, be careful. You might miss the boat.

I plan on riding the volatility for as long as possible, then when it appears oil hits its low and then rebounds---I plan on holding on to the stock--waiting for it to build up, then sell it off in a big bang. I believe at this point that rebound will be when the winter demand for oil starts kicking in. I could of course be wrong and all of this can change.

A good way to predict the day's oil prices is to simply wake up before the stock market opens and read bloomberg.com's oil coverage in the European and Asian markets. Oil prices are always fluctuating except on weekends--because the markets are open 24 hours a day. When the US closes--the Asian markets are up. Oil is traded universally.

One last comment is TRE has had a lot of volatility. I'm thinking the shareholders as a group may be sick of it and are just holding onto it for now--maybe waiting for the winter season to increase oil prices. Reason why is despite a lot of extreme news (the OPEC announcement, N. Korea's nuke tests, the plane hitting the buildings) it hasn't moved much in the last few days. I would've anticipated it moving a lot more based on the same news if it were a few weeks earlier.

thanks for the post...

One last comment is TRE has had a lot of volatility.


hehe... you haven't seen volatility until you played the otcbb stocks... my gsct.ob is up 61% in a week and a half since I bought it at 4c... lol

probably selling in the next few days.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSCT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=0

ttac

I made 2 runs on TRE in the past month that ranged from about 4.65 to 5.08 I could've made 3 but I took a vacation in Europe and internet access costed me about $10 for 15 minutes

;)
I'm guilty of the same thing... traded in internet cafes in prague... and somewhere in germany... lol

It's fun to not talk about medical things all the time... thank goodness I've found studentDAYTRADER.net :D :D :D

ttac

Here's another reason why ethanol is running today, and will probably continue...

http://www.platts.com/HOME/News/6304726.xml?sub=HOME&p=HOME/News&?undefined&undefined

Bush administration open to boosting ethanol targets: Bodman

St. Louis, Missouri (Platts)--12Oct2006
The Bush administration is open to raising mandatory ethanol consumption
targets set by Congress, as well as to new tax credits or other financial
incentives to get more ethanol-powered vehicles on American roads, Energy
Secretary Samuel Bodman said Thursday.

In an interview at a renewable energy conference the Energy Department is
hosting in St. Louis, Bodman said the administration would continue to look
for ways to expand the number of ethanol pumps across the country and the
number of flexible-fuel vehicles available, but in a "fashion that doesn't
require mandates."

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have proposed requiring oil
companies to install ethanol pumps and automakers to produce vehicles that can
run on ethanol. Bodman said the administration may support incentives to spur
automakers to make more flex-fuel cars, but he said the decision to do so
would be left to individual companies because it requires a "big commitment."

Bodman did not rule out administration support for increasing the
mandatory renewable fuels standard targets that Congress set in 2005 as a
means of boosting ethanol supplies. Ethanol production alone is expected to
meet the RFS' 7.5 billion gal renewable fuels requirement for 2012 years ahead
of schedule and advocates are pushing the administration and Congress to raise
the standard.

Bush is slated to address the conference this afternoon.

--Mike Schmidt, mike_schmidt@platts.com

I'd still be wary of ethanol. Now oil is projected to possible go below even $50. I haven't been tracking ethanol stocks so you probably know more about this than I. Just saying you might not want to put your money into it except for short term volatilty reasons at this point.

I'm going to stick to metals while riding the oil market volatility. One good thing I like about it is I can easily track the metals markets in other countries before our market opens--knowing full well ahead of time if they will go up or down before the US markets open.

[QUOTE=whopper;4257895]I'd still be wary of ethanol. Now oil is projected to possible go below even $50. I haven't been tracking ethanol stocks so you probably know more about this than I. Just saying you might not want to put your money into it except for short term volatilty reasons at this point.
QUOTE]

totally agree with you here... I'm bailing out of ethanol in the next 2-3 days, for certain.

I think the strength will last into tomorrow for sure, possibly monday, but I don't think I'll take any chances.

ttac

Well as you probably now know, oil did go up today so I hope your ethanol stocks have as well. Today might be a day to pull out.


Several analysts have been on CNBC and all of them are giving different answers on where oil will go. Some say it will go below even 50. Others are saying it'll be up again soon.

IMHO--I think it will go up--when the winter demand kicks in. IT won't be a skyrocketing increase, but it'll be enough to make some nice returns for a investment you'll have to sit on for only a few days to weeks.

Sometime in the next month I think may be the time to keep onto stocks that go up with oil prices.

The things I don't know that I got to research is the forecasted weather trends.

One good website I've been using is oil.com. They got all the latest oil news--but its just news. There's no opinions from analysts.

Of course this is all speculation on my part. Anyone with differing opinions--I'd like to hear them.

Still holding my gsct.ob... I'm up on paper 92% on my 9000$ investment in about 2 weeks... however, gsct is becoming heavily overbought over the past few days... still, today was a solid consolidation day and I see more strength in the near future. Make make a blowoff top tomorrow. Having played this stock on the initial explosion from 4 to 32 cents, however, I know what it is capable of.
Nonetheless, plan on bailing on mon-tues, maybe wednesday at the very latest.

ttac

If you want gold, I'd go for KRY... one of the best daytraders in my group is long 20K at 2.69... (not a big position for him... usually plays with 100,000$ positions, tho)

ttac

Hmm... well, the best daytrader was right... KRY is absolutely exploding... yeah, he only made 7000$ today... of course he is still holding.

kry at 3$, up 10%+ in just a few days...

ttac

Sweet... peix is having their ribbon-cutting tomorrow.. should be good for all etoh stocks. Gonna hold gsct.ob for just a few more days...

plus, opec meets on the 19th...

ttac

http://www.cleanedge.com/story.php?nID=4355

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8qtAdPoii74&refer=home

tried to sell all 220k at 0.075 this morning... only 100k filled at 0.077... sold 60k later at 0.068... now holding 60k

up 5500$ actual profit in 2 weeks, still holding 60k shares from 0.0397(another 1600$ paper profit at current prices)

shoulda bailed at 8c yesterday. damn.

on to the next one,
ttac

Sold all the rest on a limit order at 0.068...
total: + 7.1K. done with ethanol... I think it is pretty much toast but I might reenter gsct.ob at 0.048...

ttac

onto nbix next... imo this will hit 16-18 within 2 months.

in for 1300 shares of nbix at 12.50... really just a place to park my money while I wait for the next opportunity. Target is perhaps 16 in a few months... looks like a pennant/flag which should hopefully break to the upside in the next few days, at least 1-2$, but I may just take little scalps if the opp presents itself.

ttac

Now that the North Korea temper tantrum has quieted, and OPEC already made their announcement, I think oil will go down for the next few days, barring some type of unexpected news like a terrorist attack.

I do think it will go up in a few weeks---when the winter demand starts kicking in.

My suggestion--probe the markets next week for stocks that go down when oil goes down--e.g. energy stocks, drilling, gold & silver. Then just sit on it till at least mid winter. The winter demand will drive up oil prices--and your investment.

Agreed...
etoh stocks are pretty much a scam imho, and never was a buy long term, just that it was technically oversold and was a trade... I'm a day/swing trader, not an investor. I still believe that oil will hit the low 50's, probably 50-52 or so, before it bounces, and gsct will probably be back under 5cents.
Oil I believe is still overbought in the long term, and will go down significantly more. I suspected this first when the opec tantrum was causing less of an effect than I would have expected. Still, I was also very lucky in guessing the bottom of gsct based on my past experience trading it, and a hell of alot of luck. My previous trades in gsct were only for a profit of like 2000$, 3000$, and 2000$ each, so I gotta say that I got really lucky here to make 7000$.

Anyway, now I am looking at dovp (when it capitulates at possibly 50c), nbix (which I am in now) and possibly a small position in nsmg.pk (maybe 2k$)

Was up 650$ in nbix... which of course I lost back today (lol) but nbix is one of those stocks that can run 1-2$ in a day on some PR (which I am sure they have)... I fully expect nbix to hit 20$ within 4-6months, so I don't mind holding my money in it.

ttac

Agreed...
etoh stocks are pretty much a scam imho, and never was a buy long term, just that it was technically oversold and was a trade... I'm a day/swing trader, not an investor. I still believe that oil will hit the low 50's, probably 50-52 or so, before it bounces, and gsct will probably be back under 5cents.
Oil I believe is still overbought in the long term, and will go down significantly more. I suspected this first when the opec tantrum was causing less of an effect than I would have expected. Still, I was also very lucky in guessing the bottom of gsct based on my past experience trading it, and a hell of alot of luck. My previous trades in gsct were only for a profit of like 2000$, 3000$, and 2000$ each, so I gotta say that I got really lucky here to make 7000$.

Anyway, now I am looking at dovp (when it capitulates at possibly 50c), nbix (which I am in now) and possibly a small position in nsmg.pk (maybe 2k$)

Was up 650$ in nbix... which of course I lost back today (lol) but nbix is one of those stocks that can run 1-2$ in a day on some PR (which I am sure they have)... I fully expect nbix to hit 20$ within 4-6months, so I don't mind holding my money in it. IMO it was manipulated today for options expiration...

ttac

Sold nbix 12.41 for a loss of maybe 200?

inhx imo is right on the cusp of a b/o... long 10k at 1.61. Company has 2.24$/share in cash, cup and handle of the past couple of months.

Starting to get talked about on the mb's
Downside risk... maybe to 1.50... upside... 2.25?

ttac

Hey

I just started to realize--its now starting to get cold. Not to the point where its frigid, but to the point where in about a week or 2, I'd figure the demand for oil will go up because of heating.

I'm figuring this is the week to buy a stock that is dependent on oil prices.

I'm going with TRE or AUY.

AUY is Cramer approved. (I know some of you will actually get turned off by that!)

Anyways, I'm going to target AUY at about mid 8.80s and stick with it till maybe end of winter, unless something makes me believe oil will drop further.

TRE has had a low in the past few weeks of about 4.50 but it seems like it might not go lower than 5.25 now. It has little volume and the people I think who have it now will stick with it.

Hey Whopper,
ALtho it is getting colder, I do think oil will get down to 52 before it bounces... opec's threats just aren't carrying the weight they did.
That being said, I was WAaaay off on calling tre to pull back to 4.75... lol
glad I didn't short.

going to take a break from trading/posting a bit... besides, it seems that although there are tons of people that view my posts here, you're the only one that replies...

Think I'm going to stick with inhx for a bit. This is one of those stocks that has the kind of rounded bottom that portends a possible spike on news. OTOH, I'd be surprised if it dropped below 1.50, so I'm not really risking much. This is probably a multi-month play (lol, that's what I said about nbix... then somx came out with their news this morning and I took it all back).

Anyway, good luck with your stox. I'll post if I sell inhx fwiw.

ttac

Yeah, its like we're the only 2 guys here!

Anyways--oil shot up today. The big question is--will it hover around the same price, go down or go up. Long term--IT WILL GO UP, but I don't know what's going to happen for the next few days.

I was all geared to buy up AUY & TRE today, but the oil prices shot up--making them shoot up. If they dip to a level where I want to buy--I'm going for it. I'm still sticking with AUY somwhere below 9.

I don't think TRE will dip much more. It hasn't at all in the past few days indicating the longs are holding onto this baby.

Maybe they are interested in your speculation theories ;)

I don't trade nor am I interested in the "nitty" details of particular stocks but its an interesting read. I'm just looking to see what the oil prices are and how close they are to my $52 that I guessed. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll see it below $60 again ...

Yeah well in hindsight, I think I was actually pretty accurate with my predictions, though I was off by 1 week with oil.

ITs up now. I was waiting for one more big dip in oil to start buying up stocks that go up with oil--but that time may have passed. If there's another dip--I'm jumping on it.

I guess that's the problem with investing as a resident. I don't have big bucks to invest so some of my money gets tied up by a few days and those are the days I missed a potential big hit.

Had I had 6 figures to invest, I known I wouldn't have missed AUY for 8.90 on Monday, (its at about 9.50 today) but my funds were all caught up in other stuff.

One more thing to add. I spent a lot of time the last few weeks watching stocks. I'm working with about $20,000 to invest. In just 2 years I'll be making a heck of lot more money. I ought to just put it into longs right now and just focus on studying and getting past USMLE 3.

Yeah well in hindsight, I think I was actually pretty accurate with my predictions, though I was off by 1 week with oil.

ITs up now. I was waiting for one more big dip in oil to start buying up stocks that go up with oil--but that time may have passed. If there's another dip--I'm jumping on it.

I guess that's the problem with investing as a resident. I don't have big bucks to invest so some of my money gets tied up by a few days and those are the days I missed a potential big hit.

Had I had 6 figures to invest, I known I wouldn't have missed AUY for 8.90 on Monday, (its at about 9.50 today) but my funds were all caught up in other stuff.

One more thing to add. I spent a lot of time the last few weeks watching stocks. I'm working with about $20,000 to invest. In just 2 years I'll be making a heck of lot more money. I ought to just put it into longs right now and just focus on studying and getting past USMLE 3.

yeah, i think at this point you should be maxing out your studying (focusing on your future, much larger income) instead of worrying about making 2-3k here or there. don't be penny wise and pound foolish!

btw, i don't trade that much either - any short term things i do always involve options, and mostly with large cap issues that i am familiar with. but it has been interesting reading about the world of pink sheet investing

Trading definitely is just a hobby... I could lose it all at any time, so I try to keep things in perspective. As a hobby, though, it is variously frustrating, fun, annoying, consuming, and yet I still do it :rolleyes:

I actually find it very interesting, and here are some interesting links:
a
http://www.fmew.com/archive/lies/
http://www.ncans.net/ (overstock, esp)

http://www.afajof.org/pdfs/2004program/UPDF/P306_Asset_Pricing.pdf

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/WallStreetsBiggestLosers.aspx

my favorites are "Mr. Five Percent" and the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the world silver market...

ttac

Sold inhx for a 300$ loss at 1.58
willing to take an all or nothing gamble.

I do not believe dovp goes to oblivion, and I think it is worth a gamble here from it's fall from 18$...

long 40k shares at 0.39.

either to 0 or to 2$.

If it goes to 0, at least I will have alot more free time.
ttac

I am very suspicious why a big firm like citigroup would go so far as to ensure the destruction of the dovp stock with their pr.

ttac

Alright. Going to stay long dovp until it either gets utterly destroyed to 2.5cents, then I will take my 1000$ and buy myself a nice CD. With my 50$ profit at the end of the year, I will buy 2 copies of this book and burn it.

http://www.amazon.com/Jim-Cramers-Real-Money-Investing/dp/0743224892

or, I will hold for a 5 bagger when dovp averts bk.
Today appeared like capitulation to me, and I believe bk is factored in here, and although this may gap down tomorrow, I think the capitulation is finished. So I believe the upside is maybe 1.50 and the downside 20 cents.

We'll see over the next few weeks... I can guarantee it won't be boring, either way.

ttac

p.s. don't try this at home :cool:

For those who care, here is my analysis of the situation.

1. dovp will be delisted tomorrow. May gap down. However, I think everyone who sold over the past 2 days knows this, and hence may actually bounce tomorrow

2. debenture holders can force dovp to pay 70 million... dovp only has 60 million, so they then will have to declare bk. However, my guess is that the debenture holders will find it much more profitable to load up cheap shares here, then say "well, we aren't going to force you to pay the 70 mil you owe us... We'll work some alternative timeline out".
If this happens, dovp should realistically go back up to 2-3$, making this a 5-7 bagger.

3. Even if dovp declares bk (And the most likely time would be sunday) then this may trade up... I have seen many weird scenarios in my 8 years of trading, and they include bk stocks declaring bk, then trading up 300-400% on short covering.

4. If all of this fails and dovp gets destroyed down to 2.5 cents, I will throw in the towel, and admit that it has been fun while it lasted.

ttac

All or nothing here...

This will either be the end of my daytrading career or I will be able to pay off my student loans completely. I'll take the chance. Maybe the former will be better as I will be able to concentrate on RSI and COPD rather than RSI and MACD...

bot 20k more dovp(.pk) 0.31

Now long 60k ave 0.363

Either they go bk (decent possibility this sunday) or they somehow get out of paying their debentures back immediately and this goes to 3$.
I'll put 20k on the line here.

ttac

best of luck!

My thoughts on oil prices.

There was a temporary surge in prices in the US following Katrina that lasted far longer than it should have and would otherwise have had we had a truely competitive market. We do not.

First the major petroluem producers are no longer in aggresive competition. In the past decade we have seen the mergers of Amoco-British Petroleum, Exxon-Mobil, ARCO-Marathon, Phillips-Conoco, essentially rebuilding, in large part, the original Standard Oil Company broken up by Teddy Roosevelt in the early 20th century. Recently the execs of three of these rogues were on a Sunday News Program (meet the Press?) and boldy announced that US prices should be the same as European prices, despite the fact that in Europe we can hop a train/subway/bus to get where we're going and the fuel prices in Europe are mostly tax to pay for inter alia, healthcare and social welfare programs. They have not justified taking nearly $100B out of the economy by enhancing exploration, maintenance or new facility construction projects.

We have for the better part of a decade heard every reason under the sun for the jacking of retail prices, from a pipeline break in Michigan to a refinery fire in Arizona to a whale giving birth off Santa Barbara. When these bastards were first allowed to re-merge (thank you Mr. Clinton and Mr. Gore) within 5 weeks, pump prices everywhere jumped from $1.25 to $2.25. Only when Congress threatened to jump in with both feet did they back off.

Now, they have even bigger friends in charge of government, Texas Oilmen. They are emboldened. The hurricane was a wonderful excuse, so let's rape 'em while we can. And they did with a vengeance. The run up in crude on the spot market was a speculative venture that I hope will see CMX and NYMEX traders jumping off the Empire State building. Natural gas prices went over $10/therm briefly. Now, they are at $3.50 and falling.

Why?

Americans, and others are resourceful people. Suddenly the SUVs and F350s got parked and the Saturns and Civics came out on the road. And shortly after the hurricane, our petroleum bunkers began to fill up. Slowly, they began to fill. And this was with long term delivery contracts, not the highly speculative spot market priced stuff, but oil still selling for $25-$35/barrel on year long delivery contracts. Now, our crude oill in storage is well above 5 year moving averages, refined gasoline stocks are well above 5 year averages and our natural gas bunkers are so full that there is absolutely no room to put the stuff. The oil oligarchy has no incentive to price shop. Supply is not the issue, since the Caspian Sea field has more reserves than most of Arabia and this is a new field not yet in production. So, based on speculative trading, they pushed prices as high as they dared to see where the choke point was. They did. Around $3.23/gal. So, now we consider $2.23 a bargain. Oiyyeee.

At $2, if we continue to conserve and squeeze efficiency out of each gallon as we did when we were dropping $60 to fill the tank, then the reserves will continue to grow. The oil oligopoly depends on flow, and when flow is reduced, eventually they have to stop filling tankers because they have no place to put the stuff. The oil field owners have come to depend on the cash so they need to keep the cash coming to pay for the palaces and toys, so the supply-demand equations will again exert force to bring balance to the price. It just takes longer and the sellers have much more control to keep a choke hold on prices than a truely competitive marketplace.

And that's my analysis. So, Around $36/bbl unless we get stupid again and keep on buying 9 mpg rolling stock.

Boycott BP! (If we all decide to boycott just Amoco BP, then we'll see how fast these thieves fold their cards!)
Boycott BP!

Natural gas prices went over $10/therm briefly. Now, they are at $3.50 and falling.


luckily my boys at chesapeake energy hedged most of 2006, 2007, and 2008 at these lofty natural gas prices, and the mark-to-market gains on those hedges have been phenomenal. we can't really boycott natural gas because it serves a vital purpose in heating our homes, and because the largest users are industry - such as the chemical companies.

with revenues approaching half a trillion dollars a year at the major intergrated oil & gas guys, a few people here and there boycotting won't make a difference. and it shouldn't. when oil prices were $10 a barrel and some firms were on the verge of bankruptcy, did we lend a helping hand? no. now all of a sudden profits are great, so everyone has their hand out. my thinking is I sure as hell can't beat them, so I join them. pick up some xom or cvx and reap the benefits on our dependence on oil.

Interesting comments, 3dtp...
Personally, I see 50$ as the nearterm bottom... IMO, oil prices were like a locomotive falling off a cliff... opec then decided to open up a person-sized parachute... which worked for a bit, but will be overwhelmed as oil drops to 50$.

ttac

Oil drops below $60 ... (http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/30/markets/oil.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006103007)

Look up my old threads from when I started this financial forum
Guys were talking about Oil Shale, and price per barrel going up.

I believe I mad the prediction that within the next 2 yrs oil will be at 30.

I bought puts for 40 out 1 yr and 30 out 2.

Oil drops below $60 ... (http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/30/markets/oil.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006103007)

lost 2.8k selling dovp today at 0.32... was down as much as 7k a couple of days back. could be a bk filing sunday but then I would try to buy 100k shares at 0.15 or so for the bk-bounce... will watch closely monday morning.

nbix was a good idea to sell at 12.41. Now 8.60 ah today, hit as low as 9. inhx still flat. gsct hit as low as 5.3 cents after I sold most at 7.7 and 6.8... now 5.8 cents. bot 6k avii at 3.73 b/c I feel there will be a "new-bf strain" bounce and avii is o/s... we'll see...

ttac

NBIX at 8.06 here is a steal.
will bounce 10-20% in 3 days.

um, not to burst your bubble, but it's down a good 30% since you posted...maybe a long straddle (or costless collar if you don't have the money) might be a good way to play this volatile trade...

Sold nbix 12.41 for a loss of maybe 200?

inhx imo is right on the cusp of a b/o... long 10k at 1.61. Company has 2.24$/share in cash, cup and handle of the past couple of months.

Starting to get talked about on the mb's
Downside risk... maybe to 1.50... upside... 2.25?

ttac

etf: sold nbix at 12.41 because I thought it was a failed breakout... and I didn't like the somx news.

bought at 12.50.

As far as now, I haven't owned any nbix since 12.50... starting to look like it will be a buy soon... I guess my 8.06 call wasn't so hot, but then again, I was in avii, which I sold today at 3.82 on a limit order from 3.73 yesterday. plus 440$, I'll take it.

now all cash into the weekend.

ttac

Bot 2k adlr at 9.00 premarket. Will see where it goes.

Out at 8.70, lost 600. That was quick, and fun.
:rolleyes:

Bot 5k of rnvs at 3.30 for a bounce. Trades at less than cash (3.50/share), 7-8 trading days after the slam, and ascending triangle.

Ho hum.
ttac

NBIX at 8.06 here is a steal.
will bounce 10-20% in 3 days.

Like I said, NBIX _was_ a steal... now up to 9.35... up like 15% since my call.
Would sell now.

INHX I called at 1.61 and had the right idea... now up to 1.84 but of course my timing was off.

sold rnvs 3.53 + about 1000$.

goog I called on 10/13... at 429$... said it would hit 500. now up 20%. Will likely power through 500 to maybe 510-20? but I would sell now if you had it.

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=326850

looking to get back into dovp.pk soon, possibly.

ttac

Going to follow one of the head traders in my group... says he "smells news" in acpw... lol (but he is a hell of a trader).

Bot 7.5k acpw at 2.74

ttac

Screw it. lettin it ride... sold all my acpw at 2.72-4, loading 70k of dovp at 29c.

0 or 2bucks...

ttac

cpnlq.pk is a buy here at 47... for a run to 75, imo...

brother has 170k shares bot at 30cents... lets see where it goes.

ttac

For a couple of ridiculous charts, check out EFUT:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=efut&sid=0&o_symb=efut&freq=7&time=18

and

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=zvue&sid=0&o_symb=zvue&freq=7&time=3

Zvue: 1$ yesterday, up 550%+ from there today.

cpnlq.pk is a buy here at 47... for a run to 75, imo...

brother has 170k shares bot at 30cents... lets see where it goes.

ttac

Sweet jeebus... I think I'm going to just admit my brother is a better trader than I am... and throw in the towel in our 2006 trading contest already...

cpnlq.pk up 21% today... brothers portfolio up 17,000$ today, total up 40,000$+

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPNLQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=0

ttac

Man, my brother is KILLING me... he's up another 10K$ today and I'm down 3K$... sheesh... good news is that he'll probably be able to buy a boatload of dovp when they file for bk...

he's still holding cpnlq, and I'm holding my dovp.pk <cough, cough> too...

ttac

heh... cpnlq.pk up another 8 cents, closing at the high of the day. Yep, my bro is up another 13K$ today... I still stand by my 75cent target I called when cpnlq was 47cents, although it is getting very close to a 10c pullback, imo...

ttac

cpnlq.pk is a buy here at 47... for a run to 75, imo...

brother has 170k shares bot at 30cents... lets see where it goes.

ttac

yep, target hit today (79c hod)... interesting... my brother sold 80000 shares at 78 cents for a profit of 40,000$... (he bought those at 28cents), but is still holding 90k shares from an average of 30cents....
fortunately, he bought 100,000 shares of dovp.pk, at 23c but I believe he is holding a 750,000 share buy for if they declare bk and open at 15c...

ttac

heh... cpnlq.pk up another 8 cents, closing at the high of the day. Yep, my bro is up another 13K$ today... I still stand by my 75cent target I called when cpnlq was 47cents, although it is getting very close to a 10c pullback, imo...

ttac

There goes the 10c pullback... from high of 79c to 65.5 at the close today... realistically I could see this pull back to 52-3 before it bounces again.

ttac

I saw 1.98 a gallon a couple weeks ago.

Thoughts:

Goog is an overbought turd at 502 and change... now that retail has been suckered in in the ridiculous "over 500!!!" hype, this stock will (imo) easily pull back to 480, likely 450 on some bad news. IMO this is a short at 502, stop (cover) at 512

dovp.pk brother is long 90k at 0.23, also has another order for 90k at 0.23 which has not filled... I'm still holding all of my dovp.pk shares. My rationale is that they will come out with some dilutive financing, but since everyone is expecting bk and the price has been depressed SO much, the pps will rise to maybe 75c to 1.00 on news of financing. That or short cover on bk will take it to over 50c, after an initial drop to 15-17cents.

cpnlq.pk bro still holding somewhere between 80 and 100k from 0.30. I think he is holding through the year.

ttac

Goog... the overbought turd continues to be flushed... down 20$ today...

cpnlq.pk. Looks like my bro wasn't that far off holding his 80-100k... I believe this will hit 1.00 within 10 days, but I don't recommend buying at this point.

dovp.pk. still holding. This one I believe will be a long term winner, but in actuality it may have some selling pressure into the end of the year. The problem is that there isn't any catalyst for a pps rise until some material event happens, and if I were trying to accumulate cheaply, I wouldn't cut any sort of deals until the end of december. Nonetheless, my brother now has 180,000 shares at 0.23 (another 90k filled today)

inhx... hmm... they finally ran this one today... alot of people in my trading group sold out at 2.20 or so...
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=inhx;range=3m;indicator=volum e;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off; source=undefined

ttac

Should get an oversold relief rally in the markets today... or at least in goog.

would cover goog at 481 here, from 502 short yesterday.

cpnlq at 775 by 780

imo this is powering up for a move through 80c in the next couple of hours... the cup and handle looks pretty good over 5 days. if it breaks 80c then it is almost surely off to 1.00.

ttac

There goes 80c...

off to the races, imo

Briefing.com is reporting a rumor of bird flu in canada... should be good for a gap up tomorrow in the BF stocks.

NVAX at 5.24 is a steal this second... should gap over 5.50 in the am tomorrow, at least. Would sell on the open tomorrow morning. We'll see where it goes. CNN.com should report on the news soon enough.

ttac

Hmm... false bf rumor...
selling at 5.18 for 1% loss

http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=13572

Hmm... cpnlq.pk up another 16% today... hit 99c, closed at 94c. IMO this goes up above 1$ tomorrow, then I think my bro should sell.

He's still long 90k from 30c, so he'd be up like 57000$ at this point on this half of his shares. I guess if he sells at 1.00 then he would essentially have made 100k total on cpnlq. Maybe I get a nice X-mas present this year... lol

Maybe I can convince him to buy dovp (like half of the company) ;)

ttac

p.s. dovp is a very risky play... my bro is long like 180k? 200k? at this point at 23c average, but I don't think he is adding at this point. The problem is that there are many reasons for the stock to tank in the last few days of 2006...
1) tax loss selling
2) shorts don't want to cover so they don't book profits until 2007
3) fear of a bk declaration on Jan 2nd.

However, I continue to hold my meager number of shares. but I think I've convinced my brother to keep from going in really big until 3pm of the last trading day of the 2006 year.

Alright... I just don't see much that I want to buy right now... so it may be a while (months?) before I post again.

Besides... money is just a vehicle. We're all going to be (or already are) doctors, health professionals, whatever... should be able to make enough money there to buy whatever you want.

Parting thoughts:

cpnlq.pk: should be a sell really soon, if not now, esp if you bought it at 30c (ahem, ahem, cough cough)
dovp.pk: coin toss... hope it comes up heads.
nbix: This will be at 15 in a year or less
gsct.ob: starting to get tasty again (4.8cents, sold at 7 something?)
goog is still a turd, imo but I don't have an opinion either way :laugh:

Good luck to those who trade. It's not for everyone.

ttac

One last parting thought...
cpnlq: my bro is still holding 90k from 0.30... now at 1.22 (up 27%) for the day)... been trying to convince him to sell at 50, 78, 87, 99, 1.05, 1.15, and now... (lol)... he's up 81,000$ on this lot of cpnlq (and 120,000$ total)... so I guess I should let him decide how he want to trade it. FWIW I think this is done for the day at 1.21... :D :D :D

ttac

Hmm... cpnlq.pk up another 16% today... hit 99c, closed at 94c. IMO this goes up above 1$ tomorrow, then I think my bro should sell.

He's still long 90k from 30c, so he'd be up like 57000$ at this point on this half of his shares. I guess if he sells at 1.00 then he would essentially have made 100k total on cpnlq. Maybe I get a nice X-mas present this year... lol

Maybe I can convince him to buy dovp (like half of the company) ;)

ttac

p.s. dovp is a very risky play... my bro is long like 180k? 200k? at this point at 23c average, but I don't think he is adding at this point. The problem is that there are many reasons for the stock to tank in the last few days of 2006...
1) tax loss selling
2) shorts don't want to cover so they don't book profits until 2007
3) fear of a bk declaration on Jan 2nd.

However, I continue to hold my meager number of shares. but I think I've convinced my brother to keep from going in really big until 3pm of the last trading day of the 2006 year.

Finally in the green with dovp... portfolio made back 7000$ today. but my bro, bless his heart, is long 180k dovp from 23 cents (+18000$ on that) and 50k from 27 (+3000$ on that) today...
dovp closed at 33.5, high of day. This will probably spike to something like 40 tomorrow, then pull back to 30 or so, but eventually will hit 50-60, imo.

We'll see...
ttac

Hmm... cpnlq.pk up another 16% today... hit 99c, closed at 94c. IMO this goes up above 1$ tomorrow, then I think my bro should sell.

He's still long 90k from 30c, so he'd be up like 57000$ at this point on this half of his shares. I guess if he sells at 1.00 then he would essentially have made 100k total on cpnlq. Maybe I get a nice X-mas present this year... lol

Maybe I can convince him to buy dovp (like half of the company) ;)

ttac

p.s. dovp is a very risky play... my bro is long like 180k? 200k? at this point at 23c average, but I don't think he is adding at this point. The problem is that there are many reasons for the stock to tank in the last few days of 2006...
1) tax loss selling
2) shorts don't want to cover so they don't book profits until 2007
3) fear of a bk declaration on Jan 2nd.

However, I continue to hold my meager number of shares. but I think I've convinced my brother to keep from going in really big until 3pm of the last trading day of the 2006 year.

Finally in the green with dovp... portfolio made back 7000$ today. but my bro, bless his heart, is long 180k dovp from 23 cents (+18000$ on that) and 50k from 27 (+3000$ on that) today...
dovp closed at 33.5, high of day. This will probably spike to something like 40 tomorrow, then pull back to 30 or so, but eventually will hit 50-60, imo.

We'll see...
ttac

Hmm... I cede the title of best trader to my bro... just got off the phone with him. He says with all of his trades (including a 30000$ loss with enron) he is up a total of 200,000$ (before taxes), 150,000$ after... mostly trades on the 3-6 month time frame.

And yes, he says that dovp.pk is very undervalued, but this is on the 3-5 month time frame.

ttac

Booya... dovp up 40% more today... made another 8000$ on paper... haven't sold yet... still holding everything. Fortunately, my bro is now up another 25000$ today, total up like 47000$ in the past 2 days on dovp. he is still holding, I believe.

ttac

Imo this will probably run to 60c before pulling back to 50c... then up to 80-90c in a week or so. Maybe just my wishful thinking. Today will probably stay flat till eod, or maybe pull back slightly (a few cents).

No volume (after the first runup) tells me that will probably pull back a few cents, (maybe to 42 or co) but nobody is willing to sell, and there are a hell of alot of shorts who need to cover.

ttac

totally unrelated but i need to vent. citigroup is up like 4% on some speculation. my covered calls that expire next friday are down 250% today. hopefully rumors subside.

Holy nuvo destruction, batman!!!
down 82% today... interesting to watch. Might buy at 3$ on day 7

holy crap... the 15$ dec puts on nuvo are up 10000% (were trading at 10c friday, now at 11.25$)

:eek: :eek: :eek:

nuvo: no position but imo this is oversold at 3.46

should bounce to 4, stop at 3.35

nuvo: no position but imo this is oversold at 3.46

should bounce to 4, stop at 3.35

heh... High of day 4.07... close 4.04

cpnlq.pk is looking mighty good with a nice cup and handle over the past 10 days... I believe this run should take it to 1.50 in the next 2 weeks or so. My bro is still long 90-100k from 30 cents... while I wouldn't recommend buying it now (the time to buy was when I first posted at 47 cents) it should be interesting to watch (and I would still hold if I owned it).

dovp.pk is also looking very good... nice cup and handle and strong support at 40c soaking up sells of 25k, 100k, etc...

still long all of my dovp.pk from 33c.

ttac

nuvo: no position but imo this is oversold at 3.46

should bounce to 4, stop at 3.35

still severely oversold, and still rocking... but I wouldn't touch it here at 4.25... time to buy was first post at 3.46.

ttac

I'm testing my "slam-play theory" which takes into account days after a "slam", volume, and previous prices...

its telling me that fmti is a buy at 0.77 for a possible run of 20% or so. worst case scenario would be maybe falling down a little or staying flat. We will see.

ttac

cpnlq.pk is looking mighty good with a nice cup and handle over the past 10 days... I believe this run should take it to 1.50 in the next 2 weeks or so. My bro is still long 90-100k from 30 cents... while I wouldn't recommend buying it now (the time to buy was when I first posted at 47 cents) it should be interesting to watch (and I would still hold if I owned it).

dovp.pk is also looking very good... nice cup and handle and strong support at 40c soaking up sells of 25k, 100k, etc...

still long all of my dovp.pk from 33c.

ttac

sweet... cpnlq.pk up another 8% today... high of day 1.31... should continue.
Dovp.pk has news today... we'll see if it means anything.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/061213/dovp.pk8-k.html

fmti news out today, hit 81c. now 77c

cpnlq.pk is looking mighty good with a nice cup and handle over the past 10 days... I believe this run should take it to 1.50 in the next 2 weeks or so. My bro is still long 90-100k from 30 cents... while I wouldn't recommend buying it now (the time to buy was when I first posted at 47 cents) it should be interesting to watch (and I would still hold if I owned it).




nice... my bro the stock genius is still holding all of his cpnlq.pk (90k shares) from 30c, which is now at 1.40... up 100K on that part...

he's still holding his 230,000 shares of dovp from 0.235cents... now at 0.39 (up 30,000+)

oof... shoulda woulda coulda sold my dovp.pk... now at 27c... still holding all of my shares, so is my bro and his cpnlq.pk...

lets see... goog is STILL an overpriced turd, close to making my 450 prediction come true (453 now). Will probably take out 450 then bounce slightly.
gsct.ob is getting close to my buy in point, at 4.1 by 4.2 cents. think there may be a winter oil/etoh run again, but not quite yet. There may be some end of year tax loss selling on gsct (and dovp, unfortunately)

fmti... boring... would probably sell flat (or nearly flat) at 75-76 cents.
nbix still think this will hit 15 next year.

took a look at dphiq.pk... now at 3.65... I once owned 60,000 shares at 35 cents... a long time ago. oh well.

ttac

IMO insm is oversold here and should bounce 20%... now at 85c, looks like a double bottom, no position at this time but would buy if I wasn't in on dovp.pk.

target, 1.00$, stop 79c.
We'll see.

gnta I also believe is oversold here at 46c for a bounce to 55-60

Hope everyone had a merry X-mas. Let's see how my picks are doing...
goog- stagnated at 455 but I still wouldn't buy it. no idea whats going to happen.
fmti- probably dead money for a while. now at 71c, didn't like it at 76
gnta-verdict not out yet... long term I think this could double in a year, but still stagnating at 46 where I called it.
insm-down a few cents from where I liked it. May get some tax loss selling but I still stand by my prediction for a bounce. now at 82c.
nbix-nice 10% bounce from my prediction in the low 9's... hit 10.4 today. still believe this hits 15 next year, easy.
gsct-last played this from 4c to 7.7 and 6.7. high was 8.3cents. now at 3.6, looking for 3c to get back in.
cpnlq-brother still holding his 90k shares from 30c. now 1.15.
dovp-we're both still holding all/most shares, as painful as it is... bro holding 230k from 23-24c, me holding 60k from 33c... now at 27c. may be some eoy tax loss selling, and there is maybe a 50% chance of bk on jan 2nd, but I believe that has been factored in (everyone expects it) and any bk-avoidance news sends this stock flying.

good luck,
it's only money :laugh:
ttac

Separate post for those of you showing interest and experience with real trading. Please share your ideas with each other.

IMO insm is oversold here and should bounce 20%... now at 85c, looks like a double bottom, no position at this time but would buy if I wasn't in on dovp.pk.

target, 1.00$, stop 79c.
We'll see.

Had the stop perfectly placed... hit 80c on dec 26th... today up 14% to 1.03, high of day 1.08. Would sell at this point.

Still holding 70k of dovp... bro added at least 70k, possibly 100k at 0.25, so he is long 300k shares average 25c...

waiting for the 16th... for those of you doing your FA homework you know why.

Had the stop perfectly placed... hit 80c on dec 26th... today up 14% to 1.03, high of day 1.08. Would sell at this point.

Still holding 70k of dovp... bro added at least 70k, possibly 100k at 0.25, so he is long 300k shares average 25c...

waiting for the 16th... for those of you doing your FA homework you know why.

Dammit, insm up another 20c today to 1.23, and I thought it was done at 1.00$... gotta let my breakouts run a little more....

in other news, cpnlq up to a high of 1.60 today, now 1.53... guess my bro made another 15,000$ today...

still waiting for my dovp ship to come in... lol... it may never come, but I'll take the chance (downside limited with bk already factored in, upside significant)

Jan 16th.
ttac

nbix-nice 10% bounce from my prediction in the low 9's... hit 10.4 today. still believe this hits 15 next year, easy.
good luck,
it's only money :laugh:
ttac

NBIX... this is a slam dunk if I ever saw one... I would eat my hat if it didn't hit 15 this year. Oh wait... I don't wear hats... busting through 11 now, up 20% from my call a month or so ago.

good news will come out about indiplon. Seen it a million times. This is the most obvious consolidation I have seen in a long time over the past few months. Fortunately, I believe dovp will bounce much, much more when (if) good news about indiplon comes out.

ttac

Dovp... in all fairness, caveat emptor...
Don't buy blindly without doing your due diligence.
Don't buy with any money you couldn't afford to lose.
Don't buy if you don't understand the following post (which raises some worrisome points)

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?m=me&bn=22583&tid=5301&mid=5301&tof=1&frt=2#5301

Dovp may file bk on the 16th. If this happens, don't say I didn't warn you. You still have time to sell friday if you have second thoughts.

I'm taking the risk, though, and holding. (markets closed mon for MLK), 16th is tuesday.

ttac

p.s. Just wanted to add that my bro is "only" risking 75,000$ out of his 200,000$ trading account on dovp... he actually was so sure of cpnlq that he put everything into that one stock at 30c, so I guess this means that he is not as sure about dovp, or he would have let it ride.

Whats the best way to play the current drop in oil prices. I believe the bottom is very soon. Halliburton? Oxy?

Whats the best way to play the current drop in oil prices. I believe the bottom is very soon. Halliburton? Oxy?

traders in my group are salivating over shorting the airline stocks as soon as oil bounces... of course they are running up now due to lower fuel costs, but when oil bounces, airline stocks better watch out. Of course alot of them are hedged against further rising oil prices...

old article on airline hedging and why LUV kicks butt
http://jcgi.pathfinder.com/time/globalbusiness/article/0,9171,1074147,00.html

I don't really feel comfortable with stocks outside of certain biotech areas... so I pretty much just try to trade what I am comfortable with... I am also looking at beaten down alternative energy when oil really puts in a bottom...

ttac

man, cpnlq.pk continues to rock... I have no idea where this is ending up... too bad my bro didn't hold all 180k shares... he'd be up well over 200,000$... on a 50,000 investment. now 1.67. Seems ridiculous that he bought at 30c... He is still holding 1/3...

Sure hope he is right on dovp.pk... tuesday will be interesting, I can guarantee that much... lol

ttac

dovp.pk up 55% as of 944am... another company wants bicifadine...
still holding my 70k shares... up 10,000$ on paper so far... bro is up 75,000$ on his investment so far...

on paper.

not out of the woods yet.

going to hold for 1$.

gnta I also believe is oversold here at 46c for a bounce to 55-60

up 20% today to 55 cents... I'd sell tomorrow at 59 or so...

ttac

ttac.....

i don't intend for this to come off rude but....who are you talking to? yourself? seems like you are just jotting down notes about your own portfolio, which isn't exactly helpful and/or exciting to anyone.

ps: what's your occupation? such frequent trading and research should take up so much time!

ttac.....

i don't intend for this to come off rude but....who are you talking to? yourself? seems like you are just jotting down notes about your own portfolio, which isn't exactly helpful and/or exciting to anyone.

ps: what's your occupation? such frequent trading and research should take up so much time!

Fair enough... I was of the opinion that there were at least 20 people reading this thread because although I was the only one posting, there were over 2000 page views of it, and why would you read it unless you were going to trade off of it... imo I had been pretty much right on in almost all of my trading calls... and I thought that since I probably had more trading experience than most people on this board, it might be able to help people who were new to trading. If you don't care for it, you don't need to read it.

So let's do this... if you (and this refers to anyone reading this thread) want me to discontinue this thread, then pm me. If you want me to continue posting on this thread, also pm me... I will keep all votes confidential but will tally them up and report them. If there are 5 people who want me to keep posting, then I will continue posting. If not, then I will not post about stocks any more.

ttac
p.s. my occupation is a resident. yes, this does take up a fair amount of time, but so do alot of hobbies...

I would have been right on my oil price guess but I missed 2006 by only a few days :mad:

Hey TTAC, do you have any thoughts on GTCB? ACEL? Both biotechs.

I would have been right on my oil price guess but I missed 2006 by only a few days :mad:

bottom is not in yet... I see well into the 40s...

dovp punks... liquidated everything (70k) today at 37.5... from about 30... 5k$ profit. I think I was mostly responsible for the selloff this am... lol

bro is still holding everything. shoulda sold yesterday... shoulda coulda woulda.

back to waiting mode...

ttac

NBIX... this is a slam dunk if I ever saw one... I would eat my hat if it didn't hit 15 this year. Oh wait... I don't wear hats... busting through 11 now, up 20% from my call a month or so ago.

good news will come out about indiplon. Seen it a million times. This is the most obvious consolidation I have seen in a long time over the past few months. Fortunately, I believe dovp will bounce much, much more when (if) good news about indiplon comes out.

ttac

-indiplon news out ah... trading at 14.40 AH... should hit 15 within the next week, if not tomorrow.

ttac

<sigh>
clearly my bro is a superior trader.... still long 350k of dovp.pk from 24cents... now trading at 55 cents (up 100,000$ on that) and still long about 90k of cpnlq.pk now at 1.60.

He says he plans to hold dovp.pk for another month.
I decided to get in 8k of avii at 3.03 for maybe a 50c bounce.

ttac

selling avii flat 3.03... holding cash. bro still holding all dovp.pk.
Don't like much long here. I'd sell nbix at 14 here as well...

ttac

long 7k zane 3.00... hopefully consolidation.
ttac

ouch. keep forgetting that I suck at intra-day momentum plays...and am better at longer term swing trades...

ttac