Which fields will be making the most money in 2020 and beyond?
 

Just curious, what do you think?

Hold on, let me look into my crystal ball...

cash only cosmetics of course - plastics and derm

cash only stuff (plastics, ENT, derm), concierge medicine

Aerospace Medicine. 'Cause, ya know, we're eventually gonna populate the whole galaxy. Bank on it.

You did say 2020 and beyond, right?

taylor growing organs from stem cells. gonna be a brand new field.

Who is Taylor? I hope those organs he grows can be tailored towards for me when I start to die.

pediatrics

Taylor Swift. Wrong on all accounts.

my dentist friends who don't accept medicaid/medicare

i intend on getting $15K veneers

Any field where there isn't enough practitioners and lots of patient needing that service will make a lot of money. Even plastic surgery will suck if there's too many docs and not enough patients.

I'd say psych will see a climb as well

Rocket surgery.

Neonatal sports medicine

Business and politics.

Robot Surgery (not robotic surgery). Who is going to fix all the robots that that replace surgeons?

Doctors INNNNNN SPAAAAAAAAAAAAAACE

Reimbursements are going downhill for all specialties. The top money makers in 20 yr are probably going to be the top money makers now...plastics, spine, neurosurg. All specialties will see a cut though.

Agree - anything that is cash only. Even those fields are becoming saturated and prices have decreased. Forget about anything reimbursed by government or private insurance companies. They dictate how much you make and they'er flexing their muscles more and more.

Particularly geri psych

The answer is none. None more fields.

Alfalfa, Wheat, Corn. I hear sorghum is on the rise too.

Elective surgery fields will be the highest (150k+) followed by orthopedics ($120k), rad onc ($100k), and probably derm ($100k). After that, the majority of fields will pay about $75k per year, +/- $10k depending on how future legislation goes.

Those old fogies that practiced in the 20th century may have made ten times as much money, enjoyed a much higher level of prestige, and had much less interference from government agencies, but I guarantee they weren't as spiritually and emotionally fulfilled as the doctors of tomorrow will be, and we all know that's what really matters. If you think otherwise, you're probably a capitalist or a Republican, neither of which belong in medicine. At least that's what some of my classmates tell me.

Lol. So doctors will be making 75k with 200k+ in loans @ 8+%? No one would ever enter the field of medicine.

To give you an idea of what you're saying: Assuming accumulated interest after residency, you're looking at ~250k principal, on a 20 year payment that is $2200 a month, 10 year payment is $3100 a month. With a monthly salary of $6200 (your 75k/yr) after taxes of around 40%, yielding $3700 after tax income, after loan payments? Either $600 per month on the 10 year plan or $1500 a month on the 20 year plan, that's for rent, food, clothes, etc. Lol.

In other words, as an attending you would be living below poverty level or minimum wage for 10-20 years (with $600 or $1500 a month)?

Predicition fail.

Agreed. I realize that salaries are decreasing, but let's be rational here people. Education is still valued in this country and we go through alot of it. I highly doubt any surgical field will have a salary < $200k average and physicians overall will still do very well for themselves, i.e. > $125k/year.

Last I checked, law schools were full of eager (but misinformed) students who think that going to that 3rd tier law school with the $200k price tag will allow them to become partner at renowned NYC law firm within 5 years of graduation. The reality is that most of those students will end up making $60-70k -- if they're lucky enough to find a job in the currently horrible law job market -- and they'll still have that $200k in loans to pay off.

There are two flaws in your thinking: 1) You seem to think that politicians, insurance companies and patients think that physicians deserve the salaries they currently make and that they will try to protect those salaries (or that physicians as a group have enough power/determination to work to stop reimbursement cuts). 2) That you won't find a bunch of idealistic pre-meds (looked at pre-allo lately?) who think that spending $400k between undergrad, postbac and med school is a great proposition, even if salaries plunge. Most people don't NPV analysis before deciding to go to med school and I'm not sure why you think they'll start if salaries continue to go down.

Now, I don't think that primary care physicians will be averaging $75k/year but I also don't think that any specialty should assume that salaries will remain high just because salaries in those specialties have averaged $350k+ over the last decade.

Might as well work with doctors without boarders. UPS truck drivers make more than that for crying out load. How much nurses would be making then? 35k?

If the average dips below 100k, you will see a mass exodus from the field or most US doctors will be practicing overseas.

Lol. Argument fail.

Where and what did I say to make you think I believe other groups think we deserve the pay?

Secondly, I do believe there will be some pre-med entering the field... at first. After a decade and people start seeing how disatisfied physicians are, how little they earn, malpractice, liability, training time to earn 75k, etc.... no one would enter the field of medicine. Which was my original statement.

Physicians are already beginning to show signs of dissatisfaction with the field today, imagine if the salaries were cut by 60%?

Right now a lot of those idealistic pre-med still have dreams of $, prestige, or something that would all be stripped away with 75k salaries and 10 years of training with 250k in debt.

Your scenario is not only unlikely, it would decimate medicine. College grads can earn 50k doing whatever, or they can train in medicine 7-10 more years with 250k (+ losing 200k in opportunity cost) in debt to earn 75k... you're kidding. If you work 55 hours a week, you could probably get promoted to earn 75k in a few years at a normal job.

I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.

Btw, who else can make 75k in less than 10 years of training? Below, midlevel salaries for various positions...
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc..._20100105.html
http://i48.tinypic.com/2cddd87.jpg

Common sense has to tell you that salaries cannot drop below those levels stated above.

Currently practicing physicians are locked in. Few would be able to switch to a different career and earn 6 figures, so they will take what they can get.

There will still be enough people applying to medical school, they just won't necessarily be as talented (since the smart people will be more likely to realize there are better options).

Eventually student loan debt would need to be addressed, but that's already a bubble in danger of bursting.

Don't go into medicine expecting to be rich.

If you wouldn't be happy being a doctor at $100k, don't do it. It probably won't fall down that low in nominal wages, but in 2012 dollars? Definitely possible.

Not in our work lifetime.

Assume 3% annual inflation over 30 years. A $100k 2012 salary becomes equivalent to a $243k 2042 salary.

If physician salaries are held at the same nominal value over that time (an optimistic projection), many specialties would fall in that range.

My apologies, I wrote my previous message wrong.

What I meant was...Not in MY work lifetime.

This scenario is a scary situation. I truly think we are in the only career field where we are seeing our salaries actually decrease, and this isn't just in relation to inflation. If the current trend continues, physicians will be paid peanuts. It's sad.

Ah, yeah. I'm just starting now, 30 year projections are sadly relevant to me. :)

I'm starting residency in a few months. With residency (5 years) and fellowship (1 year), I'm probably being optimistic about a career lasting less than 24 years. :(

Haha, me too, so we're actually in the same boat. Maybe the attending portion of my career will be less than 30 years, but starting the clock at internship I'm definitely planning on working that long at least.