Originally Posted by Phloston
Yes, it would be disheartening to inform them of that.
In terms of the new prognosis pool that the patient has become a part of, taking into account the removal of those who have already died, prognosis is improved. However, this patient was already part of the survival pool from the beginning. His or her chance of survival hasn't actually increased.
If we flip one tail and ask the probability of the next three flips being tails, the probability is 1/8. However, if we flip one tail and ask the probability of landing the fourth tails in a row, it's still 1/16.
I could see how this can be confusing for a lot of people.
And tell me, how do you know which prognosis pool that patient is a part of, other than the one he is currently in?
Someone just send the bat signal for the psychology forum. They know stats better than anyone on these boards and can be the arbiter of justice