5-10 years from now..

[panteramd]

in 5 to 10 years do you think that Caribbean medical schools will still be an avenue for U.S. students who don't have competitive enough GPA, MCAT, EC's etc. for U.S. schools? Or, do you think that they will become as competitive as U.S. schools are?

[WNT Signaling]

Originally Posted by panteramd

Or, do you think that they will become as competitive as U.S. schools are?

Seriously though, as long as there is a profit to be made by swindling Americans, there will never be a shortage of Caribbean schools. These schools will continue to run the gamut of legitimacy, and there will always be a school that has low enough standards to accept anyone with a pulse and a half-way decent credit score

[Augustus]

Originally Posted by panteramd

in 5 to 10 years do you think that Caribbean medical schools will still be an avenue for U.S. students who don't have competitive enough GPA, MCAT, EC's etc. for U.S. schools? Or, do you think that they will become as competitive as U.S. schools are?

I'm going to assume they will be less competitive. The US government is trying to lower the country's dependency on foreign trained doctors (Caribbean grads are included in this category), who currently make up 25% of America's physicians.

That being said I'm sure the change won't happen overnight. However, overtime look for there be more opportunities to get a medical education in the US and for that 25% figure to continually get smaller.

If you think about it. Most of the medical students in the Caribbean are US citizens who didn't get into medical school in the US so it would make sense for the government to allocate more money to new medical school programs so that those students can be educated in the states.

[panteramd]

are you saying that more colleges will be started so that there are more opportunities for students to go to medical school in the states or that schools will accept more students each term or maybe lower the standards for accepted students or all of the above?

[aProgDirector]

The first two are already in play. Many medical schools have increased their class sizes by about 10% due to a call to do so by the AAMC. Optimists would say that they did so to improve physician supply in the US. Pessimists would say they did so to increase their tuition input and to help put the carib schools out of business.

About 7 new MD schools are in process of being opened. Many DO schools are increasing or opening too.

All of this will decrease the overall statistics of incoming students, by having those who were just "below the line" now get into med school in the US.

[Saga1]

Aprogdirector what do you see happening in terms of residency slots in the next 5-10 years??

[J DUB]

Originally Posted by Saga1

Aprogdirector what do you see happening in terms of residency slots in the next 5-10 years??

They have been staying pretty much at the same level.

That is why there will be a decrease in the number of Caribbean MDs as more US programs are letting in more students and opening more schools.

[Saga1]

One would assume that they would increase. Anyways I want to see what aprogdirector has to say

[J DUB]

Originally Posted by Saga1

One would assume that they would increase. Anyways I want to see what aprogdirector has to say

Need government funding first....but excuse me

[schandan13]

The full 30% increase would be effective by 2015. And the full strength of graduates directly competing for the same spots would happen 4 years after that. So the full blown effect will not happen overnight. That said, as has been the trend in previous years, number of IMGs/FMGs matching/year would be lesser. The system would ultimately lead to a no. of US grads = no. of residency slots.

How increasing MD intake without a concomitant increase in slots will alleviate the "physician shortage" is beyond me.

[aProgDirector]

Originally Posted by Saga1

Aprogdirector what do you see happening in terms of residency slots in the next 5-10 years??

As others have mentioned, it's a political decision. I do not see programs increasing slots without increased gov't financial support. Given how expensive health care overhall is likely to be, I don't expect there to be more residency slots. But, if someone in Congress was really committed to this, it certainly could happen.

However, there are other possibilities. We could see gov't funding for NP/PA education. There's a small amount of that built into the Senate bill, and MedPAC has stated that they feel that 50% of IME is wasted and that congress should consider funding "alternative training pathways".

So, who knows?

[J DUB]

Originally Posted by schandan13

The full 30% increase would be effective by 2015. And the full strength of graduates directly competing for the same spots would happen 4 years after that. So the full blown effect will not happen overnight. That said, as has been the trend in previous years, number of IMGs/FMGs matching/year would be lesser. The system would ultimately lead to a no. of US grads = no. of residency slots.

How increasing MD intake without a concomitant increase in slots will alleviate the "physician shortage" is beyond me.

I think DO schools are really increasing the number of US grads. They are pumping out a greater percentage than US MD, but US MD still probably has more pure numbers.....

I think eventually over the 10yr span almost all spots in the US will be from US grads...it may take more time than 10yrs though; not sure how long it will take but I see that happening.

SO, I would get into the Caribbean now instead of later......

[Augustus]

Originally Posted by J DUB

I think DO schools are really increasing the number of US grads. They are pumping out a greater percentage than US MD, but US MD still probably has more pure numbers.....

I think eventually over the 10yr span almost all spots in the US will be from US grads...it may take more time than 10yrs though; not sure how long it will take but I see that happening.

SO, I would get into the Caribbean now instead of later......

I've ruled out going to the Carib because I am afraid that in 4 years I won't be able to get a residency in the US. Then what I just spent $300K going to school in Grenada for a useless degree? To me its not worth the risk. I'm working on postbac courses to improve my stats for MD school or I'll go to DO school. At least I know I control my own fate when it comes to getting a residency.

If more spots keep opening up in US schools that means there are less residencies for Caribbean grads. 99.8% of the time the US grad is getting the residency over the Caribbean grad even if the latter's USMLE scores are better.

If you are confident enough that you can go to the Carib, and be so exceptional that you will get a US residency then by all means go for it. To me the financial risk of the Carib far outweighs the reward.

[Saga1]

If this health bill passes there will be an increase in slots, there are amendments which specifically outline this. However in my opinion the residency slot increase will not match the US MD seat increase.