33% of hospitals to close?

[Old_Mil]

http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2012/03/onethird-hospitals-close-2020.html

So we are almost halfwqy there from wheb this article was written.. What trends do you see where you work/live?. Obviously the combination of more ED residencies and fewer hospitals is bad for us...

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[emergentmd]

The beds at all of our hospitals are usually full and holding in the ED. Hospitals will only shut down if they are not profitable. Pts will have to go somewhere.

FSEDs are opening up in many places and can fill some of the void but where will admissions go?

I just don't see it but I am sure unless they allow Midlevels to work independently, out jobs are pretty safe for the foreseable future

 

[Psai]

I knew this article was crap as soon as I saw the "almost 100,000" figure. If I'm remembering correctly, that was a poorly researched paper with numbers lazily pulled out of a nonsense equation fabricated by some random nobody researcher based on 4 tiny studies with an enormous fudge factor. His actual number was 44,000 and he fudged it up to 98,000 which got rounded up to 100,000 for an easy number to remember. It is more than double what the actual "calculated" estimate originally was.

 

[Birdstrike]

I remember when that article came out. It was pretty widely circulated and got tons of comments, more than most on KevinMD.

No hospitals have closed where I'm at.

Three years later, I can't say it appears they're going to be right. But in an article published on the same website, the same year, I'd have to say this guy was much more on target:

http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2012/12/obamacare-create-normal-medicine.html


Lol