Army/Navy Future Match Trends

[Mike2010]

I was just planning out my ADT strategy for next year, trying to figure out which hospitals to rotate at and all and I thought about something ...

After I joined up I was talking to the various recruiters who came to sell HPSP at my school. The army and navy recruiters told me that starting w/ class of 2009 they starting missing recruitment goals (AF told me they filled their goal for 2010). They say there are about 300 or so HPSP scholarships per year per branch and for 2010 the army was short about 50 and the navy was short about 140. This was pre-20k signing bonus the navy started (I think 2012 was the first class to get this, but i'm not sure). I would guess USUHS numbers stay pretty even from year to year.
Therefore, this years 2009 match should theoretically be on the leading edge of an applicant pool sink. However, I understand that the match data posted on the MODS powerpoint is wack, meaning I hear that GMO's trying to match aren't factored into those numbers and therefore in reality things are more competitive than those numbers lead on to. So I was wondering what people think, do you think the match will get less populated? It seems as if it is going that way, but I don't really know, i just thought it was interesting to think about.

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[IgD]

I love the military but I'm really discouraged about the current state of medical affairs. I think the MHS needs to reform/evolve by throwing out GMO tours, paying better respect to professional boundaries, cleaning up AHLTA and overall taking better care of personnel at every level. I'm concerned that things will continue to deteriorate until these issues are addressed in a meaningful way.

 

[a1qwerty55]

Therefore, this years 2009 match should theoretically be on the leading edge of an applicant pool sink. So I was wondering what people think, do you think the match will get less populated? It seems as if it is going that way, but I don't really know, i just thought it was interesting to think about.

I think you are correct that the decrease in HPSP students will improve the potential to match in the specialty of your choice (in general) but it is impossible to predict demand for the more competative residencies. In the Army, I cannot imagine you not matching categorically for FP, IM, OB, Peds, Gen Surg and even Rads, Ophth, Derm might not be that hard to pick up. ENT is always very tight so that might be the biggest reach.

 

[delicatefade]

It's basically a total crapshoot every year. Last year, ENT was nearly impossible to get. There weren't as many applicants this year, from what I have heard. This year, Derm didn't even fill and they gave 4 slots away to GMO's. Can almost guarantee that won't happen again next year.

Just two examples. You never know.

My advice is just decide what you want to do and go for it. Don't try to rationalize what you think the odds might be. I can almost guarantee you there are a couple interns this year who considered applying for derm last year, thought it was out of reach, and didn't apply for it. I bet they are kicking themselves now.