Back of the envelope calculations

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y0ssarian87

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So I came across this file from AACP: http://www.aacp.org/governance/HOD/Documents/CODIM16.pdf

On page 13 of 52, there are some really interesting statistics on pharmacy school numbers and numbers of applicants. In the 2013-2014 application cycle, there were 116 schools participating in PharmCAS, and there were 17,365 applicants to these 116 schools.

On the AACP website, you can find the PSAR Table 5, which gives statistics on the first year entering class for Fall 2014. If I'm not mistaken, this should correspond with the applicants who applied in the 2013-2014 year.

Using the PSAR Table 5 and summing the number of students in the entering class for each of the 116 schools that participated in PharmCAS, there were 13,950 students who began in the fall of 2014 at a participating PharmCAS institution. There were 15,962 students who began in the fall of 2014 at all institutions (including the 16 schools who did not participate in PharmCAS).

That same year, there were 17,365 applicants. If 13,950 students started pharmacy school that fall, the overall acceptance rate (for students participating in PharmCAS) is 80.3%. That is, at least 80% of applicants in the 2013-2014 application cycle gained admission to a pharmacy school. (There may have been students who got into pharmacy school, but who decided not to attend. Or there may have been students who applied to both a PharmCAS school and a non-PharmCAS school, and opted to go to the non-PharmCAS school.)

To me, this is astoundingly high. I mean, I know we see students posting in the Pre-Pharmacy subforums about low stats and their admissions (heck, I was one of them who entered in Fall 2013), but I didn't expect this.

Other interesting statistics:
In 2008-2009, there were 72 schools that participated in PharmCAS, and in 2014-2015 there were 119 schools that participated in PharmCAS. This is an increase of 65.3% (47 new schools).
In 2008-2009, there were 16,246 applicants that participated in PharmCAS, and in 2014-2015 there were 16,608 applicants that participated in PharmCAS. This is an increase of 2.2%.
The average class size (using the PSAR Table 5) was 121.8 (standard deviation of 57.3).
If we're to assume (and to be fair, the assumption has many weaknesses,) that the 47 new schools each have entering class sizes of 80 (this is conservative, but they tend to start small), the new schools have contributed 3,760 new spots.
3,670 spots is 22.6% of the current number of total applicants in 2014-2015. Nearly a quarter of the applicant pool who wouldn't've gotten in before is able to get in now.

What I find most disheartening is how difficult this information is to find. There should be pressure from accreditation agencies to push for transparency in application statistics and post-graduate outcomes (full-time employment rates 9 months after graduation).

Tl;dr: Pharmacy schools aren't selective at all. Fewer than 20% of applicants do not get a spot.

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I would not be surprise if more than 90% got accepted this year. Prepharmacy students are getting accepted after getting rejected. Students are getting in with a 2.6 GPA and 30% PCAT. Pharmacy schools are not even counting their failed grades as long as they retake it. So they can get an F in ochem, retake it and get a C and then retake it again at a community college and get an A. This "A" grade becomes their official grade. How ridiculous is this?

Don't believe the statistics pharmacy schools post on their website. Just look at the pharmacy school administers who go on this forum to recruit students. Look at the tactic they are using. You got a APhA president telling pre pharmacy students this profession is going to need an additional 100,000 pharmacists to fulfill these "emerging roles". How the hell did he even get this number? It will take years, perhaps even decades for this provider status bill to pass and to benefit pharmacists but yet, this guy does not care. He will say anything to get their tuition (and his bonus check).


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There should be pressure from accreditation agencies to push for transparency in application statistics and post-graduate outcomes (full-time employment rates 9 months after graduation).

The post-graduation outcomes is coming...we've covered that in another thread.

The last time I did that back of the napkin calculation, I came up with 76% (I made some slightly different assumptions), so you aren't all that far off.
 
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Why would pharmacy schools publish post grad outcomes? It's not in their interests in anyway to start doing it now. If they do publish them I expect these reports to lack granularity and they will probably be done in a manner to obscure the declining job market.
 
I can completely understand and agree with why my residency program director who told a new schools that wanted an affiliation agreement "You have no reason to exist!" Damn, I respect that woman. Instead I still make up lame excuses why I can't make room for their students instead of just saying the same.
 
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We've had some good discussions deep in the past about PSAR (specifically table 5 and 8, I think I remember discussing statistics here).

I think it's useful to compare to other professions. Unfortunately, AAMC's site has corrupted files (medical schools), so I looked at ADEA (dental schools) and the latest data is from 2010:

http://www.adea.org/publications/li...ntalSchoolApplicantsandEnrollees20102011.aspx

12,001 applicants (up from 7,700 in 2000)
5,171 enrollees (4,947 first-time enrollees), cited a 41% acceptance rate.
1997-2009 5 new dental schools

"Fifty-two percent of first-time, first-year enrollees earned a baccalaureate degree in biological science or chemistry/physical sciences.

It is important to note that this figure is still far below the high-enrollment mark of more than 6,000 observed in the 1970s, when a large number of enrollees was stimulated by a federal program that subsidized dental schools for increasing enrollment."
 
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Nevermind I did some google cache searching:

https://www.aamc.org/download/32144...sc=43953530.1.1465606862742&__hsfp=1333291337

52,550 applicants generating 781,602 individual applications
20,631 enrollment

Corresponds to roughly 39.2% acceptance rate, in line with DDS/DMD.

Yeah pharmacy is really the odd one out; however, these are US medical schools only and do not count carribbean/international programs where a majority of students end up practicing back in the US. So it's more likely that the acceptance rate for the profession overall for US-bound students is higher. Also, this is allo programs, osteo programs will likely boost the acceptance rate higher.

Too busy to look up those reports now, if anyone wants to have a look.
 
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