if you look at the match lists of top med schools for IM you see that the majority go to top residencies which means that even an average candidate can land a solid residency whereas the rank list at a lower ranked school is noticeably different.
doesn't matter which specialty you want to go into, going to a more prestigious or more well respected school will keep more doors open
First, I'm suggesting that folks younger than 3rd year of med school are ill equipped to gauge what are the "top residencies" in any field. It's not the same as US News. A place with a big name can be outright malignant and most people's lower choice. So match lists are misleading. Until you go through the process it's hard to appreciate that.
Second, though you dismiss it, the PD survey of factors they consider important isn't meaningless. They
do put more stock in your step scores than your alma mater, no matter what you choose to believe.
Third, from personal experience, pretty much all the people I know who did well, from a wide range of US allo med schools, ended up at what most would consider prestigious residencies. They didn't end up at the IMG populated community medicine programs. Doing well on the Step opened doors, and where they went to med school sure didn't close them.
Fourth, I know folks from "lesser programs" who had mentors who pulled out all the stops in working the phones with their colleagues to help them get a good residency. Totally anecdotal, but something to watch for -- this would be a bigger selling point than school name IMHO.
Fifth, I have seen PDs prefer or dislike taking residents from certain schools for reasons totally unrelated to or inversely related to rank. So as a med student or premed you really won't know how this is going to cut. Each action opens some doors, closes others. it's hard to know which way the biases run, particularly if you find yourself wanting to end up in a particular geographic region that doesn't respect the big name (based on past experiences) as much as elsewhere in the country.
So I'm not going to be convinced that putting yourself in a setting where you can thrive and do well isn't more important. The US grads with high step scores and good evaluations end up where they want, period. Again, this isn't advocating to go to a lesser name school, per se, or saying that if you go to any med school and do poorly you are still golden. I'm just saying that getting into residency is going to depend more on other factors than school name, and more often your step score and networking will drive this train. If you think you will do better and get more networking help elsewhere, then that's probably more important. But if you can get all that at a top school, then sure, maybe that's the way to go. Just don't get hung up on the name because most PDs won't.