BLS.GOV UPDATE- PHARMACY GROWTH SLOW

[sharebear003]

Quick Facts: Pharmacists
2014 Median Pay $120,950 per year
$58.15 per hour
Typical Entry-Level Education Doctoral or professional degree
Work Experience in a Related Occupation None
On-the-job Training None
Number of Jobs, 2014 297,100
Job Outlook, 2014-24 3% (Slower than average)
Employment Change, 2014-24 9,100
Employment of pharmacists is projected to grow 3 percent from 2014 to 2024, slower than the average for all occupations. Several factors are likely to contribute to this increase.

Demand is projected to increase for pharmacists in a variety of healthcare settings, including hospitals and clinics. These facilities will need more pharmacists to oversee the medications given to patients and to provide patient care, performing tasks such as testing a patient’s blood sugar or cholesterol.

The large baby-boom generation is aging, and older people typically use more prescription medicines than younger people. Higher rates of chronic diseases such as diabetes among all age groups will also lead to demand for prescription medications. In addition, scientific advances will lead to new drug products.

They still cant let the baby boom thing go

The number of individuals who have access to health insurance is expected to continue to increase because of federal health insurance reform. As more people have access to insurance coverage, more pharmacists will be needed to fill their prescriptions and to consult with patients about their medications.

Employment of pharmacists in traditional retail settings is projected to decline slightly as mail order and online pharmacy sales increase.

The number of pharmacy schools has grown in recent years, creating more pharmacy school graduates and therefore more competition for jobs. Students who choose to complete a residency program gain additional experience that may improve their job prospects. Certification from the Board of Pharmacy Specialties or as a Certified Diabetes Educator also may be viewed favorably by employers.



What are your thoughts? I myself had plans to become a pharmacist after high school but my parents are forcing me to do nursing and although I am upset about it, I guess they're right to.

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[a student]

Glad you posted it, I really wanted to ask as well.

My own opion is that the the predictions by BLS is somewhat correct, but at the same time hopefully it will prompt actions to protect our profession like the way MDs protect theirs.

Regarding your last comment. 10 years ago every Asian parent was forcing their child to go into pharmacy and stay away from computer science. Look at how the table has turned. I would recommend that you do what you have a passion for.

 

[BMBiology]

The BLS is just a lagging indicator. Anyone who follow this forum already know this.

Just look at the data they are using. 2014? It is almost 2016.

 

[pharmatme]

So with the number of pharmacy schools opening is there a matching amount of students that can fill those seats? My school tool 86 students for a class that is supposed to be 90.

 

[a student]

So with the number of pharmacy schools opening is there a matching amount of students that can fill those seats? My school tool 86 students for a class that is supposed to be 90.

The new schools will accept anyone who qualifies for student loans.

Currently, the only "gate" against the flooding new grads is to increase the difficulty of the naplex. I don't think 250 questions are enough.

 

[Dred Pirate]

Love that I am still below the average pay rate 5 years out.... Lol

Sent from my ONE A2005 using Tapatalk

if it is indeed "average" (or median more correctly) - and the average career is say 40 years - you should not make average until you are 20 years out. I am ahead of schedule

 

[steveysmith54]

lol. I wonder if the new schools will find a way bury this article some how.

I recommend all perspective students go to your three locals chains and see the age of the rph there and how happy they look.

 

[BenJammin]

These facilities will need more pharmacists to oversee the medications given to patients and to provide patient care, performing tasks such as testing a patient’s blood sugar or cholesterol.

What the hell?

 

[awval999]

This is why-- as a 2010 graduate--- I have no desire to leave my employer and am eternally grateful for the increased seniority each year. Today we interviewed a PGY-2 resident competing for the job I already have a 0+6 PharmD. It's ridiculous.

For now I think are salaries are good, but I think they will (and all health care professionals) will deflate, we'll get 1% raises, with 3% inflation, after 10 years our salaries will be relatively lower. Fortunately by then my student loans and my mortgage will be gone and I'll have lots of extra monies.

 

[gwarm01]

Will pre-pharmers still ignore practicing pharmacists when we warn them about the job market, or will they find some other excuse to pretend we are just being negative for the fun of it?

 

[wagrxm2000]

if it is indeed "average" (or median more correctly) - and the average career is say 40 years - you should not make average until you are 20 years out. I am ahead of schedule

I'll never understand why new grads get paid so much in retail at least. They should all start around 80k. My brand new staff pharmacist gets paid just under average.

 

[zelman]

Will pre-pharmers still ignore practicing pharmacists when we warn them about the job market, or will they find some other excuse to pretend we are just being negative for the fun of it?

the latter

 

[pezdispenser]

Job Outlook, 2014-24 3% (Slower than average)
Employment Change, 2014-24 9,100

And let's emphasize that that is a 3% increase over the whole 10 years. Not 3% per year. 9,100 new jobs over 10 years, or just 910 per year! There are about 15,000 new grads every year!

 

[Sine Cura]

I would hope no one would take a chain retail offer at $40/hour or less. At CVS if you "meet expectations" (SOS or MyStoreHealth > 3.0) you get a ~2% raise as a staff pharmacist. You would get a higher raise with > 4.0 but > 4.0 stores generally are slower stores and new grads are more likely to be placed in ****ty stores. Then you would have get raise for years and years on end before reaching the "average"

 

[pezdispenser]

So with the number of pharmacy schools opening is there a matching amount of students that can fill those seats? My school tool 86 students for a class that is supposed to be 90.

I think the newer for-profit schools will just accept lower standard applicants because they still need to fill their seats and keep the tuition dollars coming in. Also, the smart people who have done their research know to stay away from pharmacy and do something better like medicine/PA/NP or something completely different like IT, so pharmacy will become an even more mediocre field.

 

[BenJammin]

These numbers can't be correct. 15,000 graduates a year and 150,000 graduates over this 10 year period. 6% employment? Bull****.

 

[awval999]

These numbers can't be correct. 15,000 graduates a year and 150,000 graduates over this 10 year period. 6% employment? Bull****.

You still have to account for retirement of the older pharmacists.

I agree. I'm all for doom and gloom. But this is just too much IMO.

 

[Gombrich12]

The ignorance of the incoming pharmacy school classes in the future will be staggering if things don't change.

 

[Rukn]

I'll never understand why new grads get paid so much in retail at least. They should all start around 80k. My brand new staff pharmacist gets paid just under average.

If salaries started at 80k then there would be less applicants and less graduates and less saturation


If salaries started at 80k I wouldn't be in pharmacy

 

[Shazzy1228]

What the hell?

I was thinking the same thing. Makes no sense for that to increase. Can't you get a doc, np, or pa to do that? can't a rn do the same thing?
I better get a move on and create side business for myself. Nothing is guaranteed anymore. Did you guys hear of Dupont cutting 1700 jobs in Delware as part of the merge with Dow chemical? Nobody's field is totally safe anymore.

 

[a student]

These numbers can't be correct. 15,000 graduates a year and 150,000 graduates over this 10 year period. 6% employment? Bull****.

That's best case senario. More schools are opening up, including online programs. There might just be 200,000 graduates by 2026

 

[bacillus1]

I was thinking the same thing. Makes no sense for that to increase. Can't you get a doc, np, or pa to do that? can't a rn do the same thing?
I better get a move on and create side business for myself. Nothing is guaranteed anymore. Did you guys here of Dupont cutting 1700 jobs in Delware as part of the merge with Dow chemical? Nobody's field is totally safe anymore.

Ugh, Delaware is screwed Back in the 90s, everyone and their mother worked for either DuPont or AstraZeneca. First AZ cut a lit of jobs, now DuPont, and the banks are starting to move away as well.

 

[Shazzy1228]

Ugh, Delaware is screwed Back in the 90s, everyone and their mother worked for either DuPont or AstraZeneca. First AZ cut a lit of jobs, now DuPont, and the banks are starting to move away as well.

Unfortunately, my classmate's dad is one of those Dupont employees in DE being let go. Rather sad indeed. Doesn't DE have other major industries? I know its a small state and a lot of their residents actually work in Philly, but there has to be other major employees. What about Nemours?

 

[bacillus1]

Unfortunately, my classmate's dad is one of those Dupont employees in DE being let go. Rather sad indeed. Doesn't DE have other major industries? I know its a small state and a lot of their residents actually work in Philly, but there has to be other major employees. What about Nemours?

The big industry is banking, but the banks are slowly moving to other states, as are all the other big companies that used to be incorporated in Delaware. I think it has something to do with the taxes. BTW fun fact: Nemours was started by the DuPont family.

 

[TheBlaah]

This is what begins to happen when you increase from 90 to ~130 pharmacy schools and pharmacy graduates and 8k to 15k new grads a year in the last 10 years while job shortage already began filling up back in 2007.

But judging from the amount of jobs from 2012 to 2014, employment increased from 287,420 pharmacists to 297,100. A difference of 4.8k new jobs in 1 year. So maybe the prediction isn't too far from the truth unless their data itself is inaccurate.

Edit: Just realized they predicted 910 new jobs a year. Are we sure it's not supposed to be read as 3% yearly?A pretty big exaggeration, just like their predictions for growth in the previous predictions. But if growth continues at ~10k a year, that's still a 66% employment rate for new grads...

 

[steveysmith54]

i am not a retail pharmacist anymore, but when you consider that
1. dependence on chains for employment and the amount of years that an average pharmacist can stay at a chain
2. hours of work and scheduling
3. stress on the body
4. tuition loans

one should really think twice before enrolling in pharm school.

 

[bananaface]

In the expanded text BLS offers actual numerical projections that make it clear that the 3 percent growth is over the 10 year period, not annually.

 

[gwarm01]

Don't worry, those new and expanding roles will start kicking in any day now.

 

[PAtoPharm]

In the expanded text BLS offers actual numerical projections that make it clear that the 3 percent growth is over the 10 year period, not annually.

So with the number of new pharmacists being graduated on a per-year basis and considering that the 3 percent growth will only occur over a 10-year period, doesn't that mean it will only take a couple of years for the job market to become beyond saturated? Or am I calculating/estimating the numbers incorrectly?

 

[Gombrich12]

We are reaching the point where if nothing changes in the next 5 years there will be less applicants than seats. Last year there were 16,705 applicants on PharmCAS which represents 119 schools, that was a 3.8% decline from the previous year. With news like this coming out you can expect the numbers to drop even more.

 

[genesis09]

Long term, the market will balance itself out. There have been surpluses in the past, the early to mid 1990s was a poor market for pharmacists. In the short term, salaries will stagnant. I don't believe in a huge drop. Stagnation is a more realistic result. Very rarely do you see huge salary drops like some are saying.

Also, you need to stop thinking in terms of raw number of pharmacists. You need to think in terms of FTEs.

In terms of automation and mail order, you must look at the potential push back from consumers. People like the idea of a physical, in-person provider. Retail pharmacists need to refuse to give information to mail order customers. They need to say to call your pharmacy for help.

 

[bacillus1]

Why's that a fun fact?

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Because DuPont pretty much owns Delaware.

 

[BF7]

My older brother graduated in 1996 and had a plethora of options. He settled on Nuclear.

I graduated in 2003 and had offers from walgreens, Publix, albertsons and Kroger and in various locations all over the country. This is indeed a much different market.

Long term, the market will balance itself out. There have been surpluses in the past, the early to mid 1990s was a poor market for pharmacists. In the short term, salaries will stagnant. I don't believe in a huge drop. Stagnation is a more realistic result. Very rarely do you see huge salary drops like some are saying.

Also, you need to stop thinking in terms of raw number of pharmacists. You need to think in terms of FTEs.

In terms of automation and mail order, you must look at the potential push back from consumers. People like the idea of a physical, in-person provider. Retail pharmacists need to refuse to give information to mail order customers. They need to say to call your pharmacy for help.

 

[trailerpark]

I graduated in 2014 and took the only offer I got

 

[pezdispenser]

So with the number of new pharmacists being graduated on a per-year basis and considering that the 3 percent growth will only occur over a 10-year period, doesn't that mean it will only take a couple of years for the job market to become beyond saturated? Or am I calculating/estimating the numbers incorrectly?

You need to account for pharmacists retiring or leaving the workforce. I'm trying to find stats on this, but I think it's around 5,000-10,000 per year.

 

[genesis09]

From what I was told from people who graduated in the early to mid 1990s, things were tight until 1995/96. I know of people who took money from Walgreen's who were released from their wory obligation because they didn't have positions. Once you reach 1995/96, you start to see the growth of the pharmacy chains and the start of the shortage. The average salary from this period was about $60,000-$65,000 just to give perspective.

I believe there are about 300,000 pharmacists. If 5% leave a year, that is 15,000 people. I don't know what the leave rate is for pharmacists.

 

[PharmtoCS]

I believe there are about 300,000 pharmacists. If 5% leave a year, that is 15,000 people. I don't know what the leave rate is for pharmacists.

I remember it was 11,000 that leave per year, but I am unable to find the source. @Gombrich12

With the recovery of the stock market, deterioration of work conditions, and possibly falling salaries, I am sure that more will leave each year voluntarily or involuntarily.

 

[TheBlaah]

I would say 5% or 15k people leaving per year would be overshooting it. It would basically mean the average pharmacist would retire after ~20 years.

I'm more inclined to believe 11k to be more accurate, in which case would still leave a good percentage of new graduate unemployed. Leaves ~4k/16k unemployed. Maybe that study citing 20% unemployment will be fairly accurate after all.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3687123/

 

[Gombrich12]

The number of pharmacists that leave the profession each year is predicted to be about 6,900 from 2014-2024. So that would be 2-3% leaving each year, you do have to account for the older pharmacists and increased amount of women though. Over 50% of pharmacists were born in the 1960s or before, and 53% of pharmacists are women when as late as 2009 that number was 44%. So maybe it's 8,000/year instead of 6,900 but it is still a problem.

Source:
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_110.htm
http://www.aacp.org/advocacy/WhatDo... E-profile Aggregate Analysis Report 2014.pdf
http://www.aacp.org/resources/research/pharmacyworkforcecenter/Documents/PWC-demographics.pdf

 

[MatCauthon]

The number of pharmacists that leave the profession each year is predicted to be about 6,900 from 2014-2024. So that would be 2-3% leaving each year, you do have to account for the older pharmacists and increased amount of women though. Over 50% of pharmacists were born in the 1960s or before, and 53% of pharmacists are women when as late as 2009 that number was 44%. So maybe it's 8,000/year instead of 6,900 but it is still a problem.

Source:
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_110.htm
http://www.aacp.org/advocacy/WhatDoesAACPAdvocateFor/BudgetandAppropriations/Documents/FINAL_NABP E-profile Aggregate Analysis Report 2014.pdf
http://www.aacp.org/resources/research/pharmacyworkforcecenter/Documents/PWC-demographics.pdf

One thing I've noticed about pharmacy is that it is no longer that friendly to women and part-time workers. Many hospitals have switched to full-time only for all their worker classifications (Kaiser Permanente is one such example). Many women are struggling to find the job flexibility that they once had. Obama-care is making part-time jobs a thing of the past. I don't know if this will factor in the future job statistics, but the majority of pharmacy jobs are pretty rigid in their time requirements. This can have a negative impact on young mothers.

 

[PharmtoCS]

One thing I've noticed about pharmacy is that it is no longer that friendly to women and part-time workers. Many hospitals have switched to full-time only for all their worker classifications (Kaiser Permanente is one such example). Many women are struggling to find the job flexibility that they once had. Obama-care is making part-time jobs a thing of the past. I don't know if this will factor in the future job statistics, but the majority of pharmacy jobs are pretty rigid in their time requirements. This can have a negative impact on young mothers.

Interesting observation. I always thought that Obamacare would make more jobs part time so that employers can avoid paying out benefits, as retail chains seem to be doing right now.

 

[MatCauthon]

Interesting observation. I always thought that Obamacare would make more jobs part time so that employers can avoid paying out benefits, as retail chains seem to be doing right now.

Part-time jobs with benefits, 20-30 hours per week, are generally very hard to find for pharmacists. There are many limited part jobs that offer no guaranteed hours and no benefits, but these jobs aren't ideal unless the husband has a good-paying job w/benefits.

 

[genesis09]

I don't know how much true unemployment there will be. I can imagine quite a bit of underemployment meaning some people might only find part-time employment.

I work for an independent pharmacy which doesn't offer health insurance. I buy it through the marketplace. My personal plan will only cover prescriptions at retail pharmacies. My PBM is Optum, so they have mail order.

There is the unknown impact of the new Naplex. The biggest change won't be until next year with the new section on communication skills. I hope it includes oral skills along with written. An oral component would be devastating to some international grads.

 

[Judgment Dragon]

And let's emphasize that that is a 3% increase over the whole 10 years. Not 3% per year. 9,100 new jobs over 10 years, or just 910 per year! There are about 15,000 new grads every year!

But this figure does not include pharmacists who quit, get laid off, get fired, died, retire, etc.

 

[TheBlaah]

But this figure does not include pharmacists who quit, get laid off, get fired, died, retire, etc.

No, but the link that Gombrich provided a few posts above yours does.

The number of pharmacists that leave the profession each year is predicted to be about 6,900 from 2014-2024. So that would be 2-3% leaving each year, you do have to account for the older pharmacists and increased amount of women though. Over 50% of pharmacists were born in the 1960s or before, and 53% of pharmacists are women when as late as 2009 that number was 44%. So maybe it's 8,000/year instead of 6,900 but it is still a problem.

Source:
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_110.htm
http://www.aacp.org/advocacy/WhatDoesAACPAdvocateFor/BudgetandAppropriations/Documents/FINAL_NABP E-profile Aggregate Analysis Report 2014.pdf
http://www.aacp.org/resources/research/pharmacyworkforcecenter/Documents/PWC-demographics.pdf

 

[Pharmerjoe77]

How could anyone go to pharmacy school now... Only 3% growth!?! Slower than most!! We are truly doomed

 

[bacillus1]

How could anyone go to pharmacy school now... Only 3% growth!?! Slower than most!! We are truly doomed

While the growth in the amount of pharmacy schools is much higher than that.

 

[PAtoPharm]

I wonder what the reason of the projected decrease in demand is -- do you guys think it's from too many new pharmacists being graduated every year, or is the demand for pharmacy-related services simply going down (in other words, the demand projection has nothing to do with the number of new graduates and would still be decreased)?

 

[Rukn]

I wonder what the reason of the projected decrease in demand is -- do you guys think it's from too many new pharmacists being graduated every year, or is the demand for pharmacy-related services simply going down (in other words, the demand projection has nothing to do with the number of new graduates and would still be decreased)?

Pharmacy is controlled by the chains. They are not expanding like they were in the late 90s and early 00s so the "shortage" is now a "saturation" because the expansion is gone and there is now an excess of new graduates due to the near doubling of pharmacy schools.

Reimbursement is down so it's a volume game now. So they cut help and force you to do more and more with less help. This is their business model. They can get away with it so it will continue. Otherwise they are at risk of operating at a loss.

I don't think the chains can really expand at a rate to balance out the flood of new graduates anymore. You already see a CVS or Walgreens everywhere in major metropolitan areas. There is really no more room for rapid expansion.

 

[PharFromNormal]

I wonder what the reason of the projected decrease in demand is -- do you guys think it's from too many new pharmacists being graduated every year, or is the demand for pharmacy-related services simply going down (in other words, the demand projection has nothing to do with the number of new graduates and would still be decreased)?

Both - too many pharmacists are being graduated because of previously overinflated projections based on the artificial need academia got everyone to believe. The prescription "system" is getting more efficient. Everyone wants to cut costs in healthcare, throwing more employees into the mix with the same expectation they'll make the same amount of money is adding costs. Someone's cost is another persons revenue. Services or treatments will either have to be nixed or reimbursed less. Preventative care will truly have to prevent (not delay) healthcare costs.