chances at top choices

[Claymore]

Ok, so as interview season starts to wrap up, I've found that there are probably a few programs that I'm particularly interested in, much moreso than some others. My question is, roughly what percentage of people match at say, one of their top 3 places? What percentage match below #5? Not sure if there is official info on this, but anecdotes are welcome also.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

The New Physician (AMSA's newletter) came out with an article last month about the logistics of the match. Here is a quote: "in a typical year, more than 60 percent of students get their first choices and 85 percent get one of their top three choices, a fact that can be hard for the nonmathematically inclined to fathom."

I consider myself mathematically inclined and I still can't fathom this. I guess that a lot of people don't rank prestigious programs #1.

If I get one of my top 4 choices (all of which are in NYC), I will be thrilled. Is the chance of that greater than 85%?

 

[Cardsfan]

The New Physician (AMSA's newletter) came out with an article last month about the logistics of the match. Here is a quote: "in a typical year, more than 60 percent of students get their first choices and 85 percent get one of their top three choices, a fact that can be hard for the nonmathematically inclined to fathom."

I consider myself mathematically inclined and I still can't fathom this. I guess that a lot of people don't rank prestigious programs #1.

If I get one of my top 4 choices (all of which are in NYC), I will be thrilled. Is the chance of that greater than 85%?

Well, I think they way it works out is that the top programs only interview X amount of applicants, say 8-10 per position. So if there are 5-10 "top programs" I think it all kinda evens out. If you dont interview at a place, you probably wont be ranking it, so thats why so many people dont rank the top programs number 1. Hope this makes sense

 

[doctorlarry]

I wonder if the data above applies to the Neurology match in particular. In other words, do I have an 85% chance of matching in my top 3 neurology programs? It would be nice to hear from those who matched into Neurology last year.

Also, sometimes I wonder how much an interview actually helps/hinders our standing when some programs interview up to 80 applicants.

 

[Methyldopa]

I wonder if the data above applies to the Neurology match in particular. In other words, do I have an 85% chance of matching in my top 3 neurology programs? It would be nice to hear from those who matched into Neurology last year.

Also, sometimes I wonder how much an interview actually helps/hinders our standing when some programs interview up to 80 applicants.

From what I hear you more than likely will match in your top 4 choices. By more than likely, I mean a 100%.

Good luck to you! We find out in just about a month

 

[notjvarma]

http://www.sfmatch.org/general/example.html

This page works through the match algorithm and shows you that students typically get their higher choices while programs do not. NRMP works the same way from what I could tell (they also have an example up, I think it's more complicated though).

 

[ectopic_thought]

Ok, so as interview season starts to wrap up, I've found that there are probably a few programs that I'm particularly interested in, much moreso than some others. My question is, roughly what percentage of people match at say, one of their top 3 places? What percentage match below #5? Not sure if there is official info on this, but anecdotes are welcome also.

I've just had an epiphany. Or maybe I just have never given this thought. OF COURSE there are good percentages for matching in one's top 3, 5, 10, whatever choices...

The major wing-clipping takes place when programs decide whether or not to interview applicants.

I assume one only ranks places that one interviews at; so even though a pre-application "top 3 choices" may include very, very competitive places, by the time the season is over you're ranking places that are much more likely to accept you because after all, they asked you to visit and speak with them.

I think this post is as much talking to myself as it is a reply to the original question...

 

[GopherBrain]

Yeah, when I was interviewing for med school, the place I went bragged about how many of their grads got their #1 residency choice. It wasn't until I was a 3rd year I realized that this was because most of their grads chose to do primary care residencies in the midwest....