Does the rate of IIs increase after the 15th (17th)?

[synapticterminal]

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[787593]

I want to believe that this is true

 

[LoveBeingHuman:)]

I know someone around the stats of OP (but slightly higher MCAT) who has also not received any interviews yet (although several secondaries). Primary was completed in June though. I remember @LizzyM mentioning that no interview invites by Thanksgiving is a sign of concern.

 

[Levrone]

i hope this is true

 

[LoveBeingHuman:)]

i hope this is true

Lol then why does your signature reveal your current success...

 

[CyrilFiggis]

There's still 5 months left in the interview season. Remember, you only need 1 II to become a doctor.

 

[787593]

There's still 5 months left in the interview season. Remember, you only need 1 II to become a doctor.

In theory....

 

[kdirnfueu]

Tbh I feel like it's the other way around - schools have already interviewed the kids they really want to take (haven't more than half the II's gone out already?)

 

[libertyyne]

After med schools start accepting students on the 17th I would imagine that more future II will be declined by students who already have an acceptance at one of their top choices. Does this make it more likely that the rest of us who are average applicants will start hearing back?

For reference 3.75 gpa and 511 mcat and have had mostly silence. Complete late july. I'm not concerned yet, but would like to get others thoughts on this line of logic

I like the way you think! But probably not.

 

[NonTrad16]

This idea was floated around last year I think. Didn't see a big change...

 

[CyrilFiggis]

Tbh I feel like it's the other way around - schools have already interviewed the kids they really want to take (haven't more than half the II's gone out already?)

It would be a massive waste of time and resources to continue to host and interview applicants for 5 more months if you were only going to have space to accept a fraction of them. Plus, AdComs have a pretty good idea on retention rates of acceptances to matriculants based on scores, location, etc. It may be true that they have interviewed applicants they "want", but in most cases, those are early decision, linkage applicants, students from their MBS or Post-Bacc programs, etc.

 

[Gingy]

I want to believe that this is true

 

[sdhere1234]

No, many acceptees will continue to attend interviews and hold all acceptances until they are required to make a decision on April 30th. They do this to see if they may get better financial aid offers from other schools. Additionally, many medical schools will slowly offer acceptances. So while they can start offering acceptances on Oct 15th (17th this year), most acceptances will drip out slowly during the year until late January thru early March.

Additionally, since a little under half of all matriculants receive only a single offer of acceptance and likely has fewer invites and attends fewer interviews, the "upper" half of eventual matriculants get multiple II and attend multiple interviews. For example, over 30% of all matriculants attended 5 or more interviews

https://www.aamc.org/download/450608/data/msq2015report.pdf

View attachment 209837

This is only AMCAS MD schools correct?

 

[lpp06]

While it is likely about half or more of interview invites have gone out. However, it is highly unlikely that half of all interviews have taken place.

Good point!

I did worry about ~50% of II's being given out but was able to quell my angst based on 2 things: a) If you consider that most interview seasons run September - April (maybe March), than one can reason II's mostly go out August through March/Feb - so we are close to 35 - 40% done with the "II" season b) the volume of applications is front loaded to the first few months of the season (especially high quality apps), so I'd expect proportionally more II's to also be front loaded.

Do you think my reasoning is sound? Or am I off base?

 

[Levrone]

Lol then why does your signature reveal your current success...

i havent really gotten any love from my state schools or the ivies

 

[Levrone]

sry

 

[zerox117]

In theory....

You'll be fine! With your stats I'd shocked if you didn't end up with multiple acceptances.

 

[intellectualedema]

Hey, if half the interview invites have gone out, very roughly you could say you should expect to end up with twice the interviews you have now!

 

[intellectualedema]

Just realized that 2x0=0 and now I feel like a d*ck

 

[Levrone]

Just realized that 2x0=0 and now I feel like a d*ck

impressive stats

 

[libertyyne]

Even if half od the IIs have gone out, that does not necessarily mean doom for those still waiting. The reason is that applicants with large number of II may end up canceling the ones later in the year trickling down invites to those next in line. So don't loose faith!

 

[expicept]

I have very similar stats as you, was complete most everywhere mid-late July and started getting interviews as of about two weeks ago and have continually gotten more since. If that's because I wasn't a top candidate and now I'm getting interest because they've reviewed most of their favorites or if it simply took them this long to get to me, is open to speculation. I'm guessing it's the later. So if I had to guess, you're probably 2-3 weeks away from getting some love from the places you applied.

 

[RogueBanana]

After med schools start accepting students on the 17th I would imagine that more future II will be declined by students who already have an acceptance at one of their top choices. Does this make it more likely that the rest of us who are average applicants will start hearing back?

For reference 3.75 gpa and 511 mcat and have had mostly silence. Complete late july. I'm not concerned yet, but would like to get others thoughts on this line of logic

I have nearly Identical stats,
For reference,
3.85 BCPM, 512 MCAT
Mostly silence up until today when I got waitlisted at GW

 

[Cotterpin]

I have nearly Identical stats,
For reference,
3.85 BCPM, 512 MCAT
Mostly silence up until today when I got waitlisted at GW

Did you get waitlisted at GW after an interview? I thought MD programs can't give out decisions until after the 15th.

Sorry about the waitlist, though. But it's better than a rejection and there's still a ton of time left in the cycle.

 

[piii]

Why would the rate increase? They've had a blank slate to hand out as many IIs as they want. Now they will start conserving the IIs so if anything the rate will decrease.

 

[bunchesonothing]

Why would the rate increase? They've had a blank slate to hand out as many IIs as they want. Now they will start conserving the IIs so if anything the rate will decrease.

The theory behind rates increases is that people, now armed with decisions from previous interviews might be a little more choosy with the interviews they decide to attend from that point forward. It may take more IIs to actually fill the interview seats schools want to fill.
And indeed, last year, many people in the school threads reported turning down interviews after the 15th. Don't know how measurable an effect, if any this will have.

 

[chm9332]

I really hope this is the case starting NOW!!

 

[Shirafune]

Well, the rejection rate has certainly been going up for me

 

[787593]

Well, the rejection rate has certainly been going up for me

 

[WillLiftForFood]

Well, the rejection rate has certainly been going up for me

Can also confirm this. 5 Rejections this week.

 

[Shirafune]

Can also confirm this. 5 Rejections this week.

Perhaps they are reevaluating for another wave of interview invites.

 

[Cotterpin]

I've gotten three rejections this week. Definitely an uptick.

 

[Pusheen]

I've gotten three rejections this week. Definitely an uptick.

You got accepted! I'm so happy for you! I believe we took the MCAT at the same time, I remember you from the thread

 

[Cotterpin]

You got accepted! I'm so happy for you! I believe we took the MCAT at the same time, I remember you from the thread

The July 17, 2015 MCAT? Hell yes! We both got accepted! Hugs and high fives!

 

[synapticterminal]

Well, the rejection rate has certainly been going up for me

Same here. A little disheartening, but hopefully good news is around the corner!

 

[CharlieBillings]

Now up to 2 total rejections and 1 II (set for January). I'm hoping people start declining IIs they aren't honestly interested in!

 

[radioactive15]

Now up to 2 total rejections and 1 II (set for January). I'm hoping people start declining IIs they aren't honestly interested in!

Was January the earliest possible interview date?

So if we recieve II's at this point, the dates are post-December?

 

[laurenlee3]

Was January the earliest possible interview date?

So if we recieve II's at this point, the dates are post-December?

I'm pretty sure that depends on the school. Some place are still giving November dates I believe.