Future Employment and Finances for DOs (10 years in the future)

[notrack]

Hi everybody

I am currently a nontraditional student (age 22) in the process of obtaining my prerequisites. I am still researching the whole process, especially financing medical education. I wanted to ask nontraditional students who have made it to medical school (preferably DOs) and residency if their decision was "financially sound." I am not drawn to profession because of financial reward (heck, there's many other alternatives that are much more rewarding), but because I want to find meaningful work--even if medicine can be a thankless profession at times.

Because I will most not likely be done with this process until I'm in my early thirties, I want know what the marketplace might be for DOs in primary care or geriatrics in 10 years?

Will there be enough opportunities to go around (I'm not picky about area or specialty)? Will the salary be enough to cover student loans, pay for a modest home, and save for retirement?

Will employment be volatile or stable?

Is Medicine undergoing the same structural changes seen the legal industry (impossible to pay student loans, very few opportunities in terms of employment if you graduate from a low ranked school, technology slashing many legal jobs)?

Will there be shortage or surplus of physicians in 10 years? If there is a surplus, will having a DO limit employment opportunities?

Here's some considerations that might impact future employment trends for DOs:
(1) Tuition and other fees at DO schools are usually higher than MD schools. At my current understanding, someone entering DO school today will face somewhere between 200-400K in debt without recapitalization/interest included in that sum.
(2) Residency squeeze. Congress has yet to increase the number of federally funded residency programs. Current medical school grads are feeling an attenuated strain of the residency squeeze, but if there is no increase in federal funding, there might be a shortage of available residency spots even in primary care. Note: Does legal residency impact your ability to get a residency spot?
(3) Structural changes. As a political science major, I am all to familar with the changes in the legal industry over the last 5-10 years. These changes have turned what was once a stable, although despised, profession into a very risky profession. How does mid-level encroachment, technology, ACA and hospital administration change the salary and employment for DOs in 10 years?

The reason I am considering all these variables is because medical school is a huge time and money investment; I would like to know what I am getting into. Although I am not pursuing medicine for economic gain, entering into a profession without thinking about the future returns would be irrational/naive. Ideally, one should enter a profession that allows for at least a decent standard of living (no mansions or ferraris here), an ability to pay back student loans, and an ability to save for retirement. Without those things, Medicine might not be worth it, unless you can live entirely off the psychic rewards. I also have to look at medicine in terms of personal factors: my parents aren't getting any younger, and I'd like to help them out--10 years can be a daunting in that sense.

If you read through this, I really appreciate it. I would like your thoughts, caveats, and addenda. Excuse any mistakes of grammar, punctuation, or ignorance on my part.

Thanks

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[DepressedEngineer]

Just curious did you major in business?

 

[ehwhatsupdoc]

In order to determine if going to medical school is financially sound, you need to factor in your current income potential, expected level of medical school student loan debt, with interest accruing, expected physician salary and age you will be finished. For example in my situation it wouldn't be financially sound. My current salary is 75k+, total debt including ug and med school would be 500k after factoring interest and I would be finished at 40, with internal medicine making 170-200k. I figured out that I would have a 6k per month loan payment for 10 year repayment ( so I'd be debt free at 50). My discretionary income from age 40-50 would be about the same as it is now, but that's not factoring in salary growth in my current occupation, and the money i can save the next 10 years. So there you have it, its clearly not financially sound in my situation, but if you expect to be finished by early 30s then I wouldn't be too concerned. There will in fact continue to be a shortage. Residency positions are a concern only if congress decides to cut Medicare funding of those positions. You know dental residences don't get the same deal, and dentists have to pay out of their own pockets.

 

[TheTao]

22 is nontrad???

 

[petyr_baelish]

Just curious did you major in business?

You have asked a couple of people around here the same question. Are you recruiting or doing research on the business acumen of future physicians or something?

 

[Goro]

Right from my Dean's mouth: "you'll be sitting on a gold mine."

Because I will most not likely be done with this process until I'm in my early thirties, I want know what the marketplace might be for DOs in primary care or geriatrics in 10 years?

Yes

Will there be enough opportunities to go around (I'm not picky about area or specialty)? Will the salary be enough to cover student loans, pay for a modest home, and save for retirement?

Only if American Medicine is stupid enough to mimic our law schools and glut the market. I don't think AMA, AOA, LCME and COCA are that stupid. Well, COCA, sometimes I worry about them.
Will employment be volatile or stable?

Is Medicine undergoing the same structural changes seen the legal industry (impossible to pay student loans, very few opportunities in terms of employment if you graduate from a low ranked school, technology slashing many legal jobs)?

Keep in mind that all the doctors of my generation (the Baby Boom) will be retiring soon....so I foresee a shortage.
Will there be shortage or surplus of physicians in 10 years? If there is a surplus, will having a DO limit employment opportunities?

This is a valid concern. A number of the clinicians on SDN have commented on it. But keep in mind that we Baby Boomers are extremely entitled, and we vote. So Congress will make sure that doctors get paid adequately via Medicare.
(3) Structural changes. As a political science major, I am all to familar with the changes in the legal industry over the last 5-10 years. These changes have turned what was once a stable, although despised, profession into a very risky profession. How does mid-level encroachment, technology, ACA and hospital administration change the salary and employment for DOs in 10 years?

 

[sazerac]

Short answer: if you matriculate medical school before age 40, you will end up ahead financially.

 

[the_fella]

There are loan forgiveness programs out there that MD or DO graduates qualify for. Basically, you practice in an underserved area for a number of years, and for each year, a percentage of your loan is forgiven. Depending on where your residency is located, you can even use these years toward the service requirement. There are also grants and such specifically for folks who want to go into primary care, which is the are I'm interested in. But my concern is whether physicians are going to be displaced in primary care by Advance Practice Nurses or similar. Yes, they need to "consult" with physicians, but theoretically one physician could manage several ANPs.

As to your prospects with the DO, tbh, unless you're doing research, they're about equal to your prospects with the MD. The degrees are equivalent. If you want to do research, some schools offer a DO/PhD dual degree. If you want to go into administration, you could always pursue an MBA at a later date. There're programs specifically designed for doctors or other healthcare professionals who want to get into management.

 

[the_fella]

22 is nontrad???

What age would you consider non-trad?

 

[TheTao]

27

 

[DepressedEngineer]

You have asked a couple of people around here the same question. Are you recruiting or doing research on the business acumen of future physicians or something?

No I'm just a depressed accounting major that wants premed friends thanks for noticing though ....p.s im 21

 

[notrack]

Hey thanks for all the replies.

The cynic in me thinks that, like law schools, Medical Schools (esp those in the Caribbean) are operating on a profit motive. They can smell the demand for people who want some sort of professional credentialing but the potential unemployment and debt-load are inconsequential to those instiutions. Do you guys think (esp Goro) that Medical Schools might glut the market with DOs in the near future because of an overreaction to an unwarranted "shortage crises? (just look at nursing in metropoitan areas)" I see some potential for a bubble in the employment market for doctors, similar to that of law schools and business schools. Of course getting an answer from those within the industry is inherently biased (esp AMA or the DO equivalent) because they have vested interest to tell you everything is going to be alright.

I really wish there was some fiduciary responsibility on the part of higher education institutions. Unfortunately, too many schools are really good at marketing "products" that have no monetary value outside of academia. Medical schools may be no different?

Perhaps I'm being paranoid...

 

[adoctoralawyer]

Just curious did you major in business?

Funny, you're the same guy that asked, "Are you an accountant?" in the other recent thread about incurring $250k+ in debt.

 

[ehwhatsupdoc]

What's the avg amount of hours physicians work per week? I think it would be safe to say it's around 50-65 hrs. To me that's a sign of there being a shortage. This will only be exacerbated by those retiring, probably 1/3rd of all doctors. No way med schools will turn out enough for there to be a surplus any time in the next 10 years. Also there has to be enough residency spots and congress isn't budging to increase funding. So the bigger question is can you match into a residency of your choosing, I think after that obstacle you won't have any major barriers.

Hey thanks for all the replies.

The cynic in me thinks that, like law schools, Medical Schools (esp those in the Caribbean) are operating on a profit motive. They can smell the demand for people who want some sort of professional credentialing but the potential unemployment and debt-load are inconsequential to those instiutions. Do you guys think (esp Goro) that Medical Schools might glut the market with DOs in the near future because of an overreaction to an unwarranted "shortage crises? (just look at nursing in metropoitan areas)" I see some potential for a bubble in the employment market for doctors, similar to that of law schools and business schools. Of course getting an answer from those within the industry is inherently biased (esp AMA or the DO equivalent) because they have vested interest to tell you everything is going to be alright.

I really wish there was some fiduciary responsibility on the part of higher education institutions. Unfortunately, too many schools are really good at marketing "products" that have no monetary value outside of academia. Medical schools may be no different?

Perhaps I'm being paranoid...

 

[mavric1298]

Also if it helps, the prospects as a DO vs an MD, you prolly have better prospects as an DO if there even is any difference. Mainly because there is no real difference between the two, BUT with the new residency matching (combined) DO's get to apply with MD's to MD's, but still get all the DO spots to themselves because MD's can't apply to DO programs as I understand the new system. Basically you never have to worry about having a job.