GPA Cutoffs on AAMC Admissions Data Tables

[Jumb0]

I expected my AMCAS GPA to be 3.40 after my post-bac, but it ended up being 3.39 due to AAMC's conversion scheme. Having scored in the 33-35 range on my MCAT, my chance of admission, according to data published by AAMC, is 48.2%. If my GPA was 0.01 points higher, I would theoretically move up to the "3.40-3.59" GPA range, thus increasing my chance of admission to a whopping 62.6%.

Do these cutoffs have any real significance though? Do you think 0.01 GPA points really mean the difference between 48.2% and 62.6% ? I think that would be pretty outlandish. My understanding is that adcoms consider the whole continuum of GPAs and that the published admission data is deceptive in that it is presented with arbitrary cutoffs. In reality, there is probably very little statistical difference in admissions chances between a 3.39 and a 3.40.

Can anyone confirm or dispute this?

The data in question:

https://www.aamc.org/download/321518/data/factstable25-4.pdf


@Goro @LizzyM @gyngyn

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[Lancer]

Depending on the cutoff range of your GPA and MCAT, you get a percent chance of admission. The adcoms roll a random number between 1-100. If your percent is greater than that number, you get in and if not, reject.

...


All joking aside, come on. 0.01 isn't going to make a difference

 

[md-2020]

@Jumb0 just apply with the expectation of a 50/50 shot at getting into an MD school. 48.2% and 62.6% all basically signify that, especially since it doesn't factor in individual circumstances.

Edit: assuming you apply smart/reasonable

 

[SympatricSpeciation]

Indeed, there will be no statistically significant (in both senses of the word) difference in your admission odds due to a 0.01 change in GPA. It is true that you are riding the histogram line at this point and the untrained applicant eye, often inclined to rely on metrics, may find such a supposed disparity in admissions chances unnerving. But as you have considered, the cutoffs in this process are arbitrary - convenient, to be sure- but nevertheless arbitrary. Suppose that you shifted the cutoff from 3.40-3.59 to 3.39-3.59. Did the applicant pool change? No. That is to say, aren't you in the same position with respect to the strength of your application in relation to those of other applicants? You are. Yet in spite of that, metrics will tell you that you now have a much better chance of getting in. Clearly, in the x(accepted)/y(applied) ratio of a certain category, the higher end of the cutoff will comprise a greater proportion of x.

The only discernible (and in my opinion, negligible) disadvantage here is the fact that 3.40 looks better than a 3.39, so the inundated mind of an adcom may foolishly interpret your 3.39 as closer to 3.3 than to 3.4. Seeing as this is a very simple mental gymnastic to perform and most adcoms are plenty experienced, ya gotsta chill.

 

[Cotterpin]

Depending on the cutoff range of your GPA and MCAT, you get a percent chance of admission. The adcoms roll a random number between 1-100. If your percent is greater than that number, you get in and if not, reject.

Lol, now I'm imagining adcoms playing a game of D&D with us, rolling 12-sided dice to see if our applications will succeed.

 

[Lancer]

BTW, how most schools look at the massive pil


Dart Board

Size of your picture depends on cutoff range you fit in

 

[efle]

Lol, now I'm imagining adcoms playing a game of D&D with us, rolling 12-sided dice to see if our applications will succeed.

Success checks roll d20 dude , poser spotted :0

 

[Cotterpin]

Success checks roll d20 dude , poser spotted :0

You're right. I do not play D&D. But somehow I'm not embarrassed to admit that...

 

[efle]

My screen name is one I received in High School while playing D&D.

Efle is also from my D&D years

Warriors - Throk
All other classes - Efle

 

[Jumb0]

Thanks for the replies, everyone. I just hope that the adcoms see the "big picture" of my application, such as my upward trending GPA and my life story.

 

[nwts]

It's important to remember that all of those percentages are acceptance rates across the whole range. Naturally, if you calculated the acceptance rate for people with a 3.59 GPA and a 35 MCAT score, it would be higher than if you calculated the acceptance rate for people with a 3.4 GPA and a 33 MCAT score. Despite this, they both fall into the same range on the table, so we can't see what the difference is, we just see the average of all people across the range. A 0.01 GPA point difference doesn't really do much at all either way.