GPA/MCAT Grid Acceptance Rate %

[Geneticist]

My GPA is around a 3.7 and my MCAT was a 29Q. Using this grid, it would appear my acceptance rate is 51.5%. Does this mean (disregarding EC's, LOR's, etc...) that there is still a 49.5% chance I don't get into any medical schools? Or does it mean that if I apply to any given medical school, my chance of getting accepted is 51.5%? I'm hoping it's the latter, but my gut tells me it's the former...

If this is in the wrong section, I apologize, this is my first post at SDN.

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[Drrrrrr. Celty]

You cannot quantify EC's or other qualitative things. If you have great EC's and LOR's it will benefit you a lot.

 

[patel2]

My GPA is around a 3.7 and my MCAT was a 29Q. Using this grid, it would appear my acceptance rate is 51.5%. Does this mean (disregarding EC's, LOR's, etc...) that there is still a 49.5% chance I don't get into any medical schools? Or does it mean that if I apply to any given medical school, my chance of getting accepted is 51.5%? I'm hoping it's the latter, but my gut tells me it's the former...

If this is in the wrong section, I apologize, this is my first post at SDN.

It's the former. The grid shows the average success of those within the broad categories, and the percentages accepted to at least 1 medical school.

But your range can hugely fluctuate based on lots of factors. ECs, LORs, Personal Statements, and interview performance all can make a huge difference in how you fare. The state you reside in matters...for instance, Texas is great, while California sucks for med school admissions.The types of schools you apply can affect you greatly; maybe lots of those 49.5% of people applied to only a few schools, or schools that were reaches. Applying early can up that number. My advice is to focus on the things in your control...maybe retake that MCAT if you think you can do better by a few points. But I don't think you can gauge from that grid that it is as simple as a 50/50 coinflip as to whether you will get in with your stats.

 

[gettheleadout]

Its not that simple...the data says that 51.5% of the applicants with stats similar to yours were accepted in the years covered. From this, one can look at the odds of you falling into the category of those accepted in your stats range (here, only slightly larger than the category of those that were not accepted.) This would state that your chance of being accepted to a medical school is roughly the percentage of those accepted in your range. The thing is, this does not extend to individual schools, because if you were to apply to Harvard, your chance of being accepted is not the average of your individual chances at each school, but in fact less. The more broadly you apply, the greater the chance you have to approach/surpass the 51.5% chance that you end up in the 51.5% category.

It's been a year since I had statistics, so if any of this is blatantly wrong, please correct me lol.

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

Its not that simple...the data says that 51.5% of the applicants with stats similar to yours were accepted in the years covered. From this, one can look at the odds of you falling into the category of those accepted in your stats range (here, only slightly larger than the category of those that were not accepted.) This would state that your chance of being accepted to a medical school is roughly the percentage of those accepted in your range. The thing is, this does not extend to individual schools, because if you were to apply to Harvard, your chance of being accepted is not the average of your individual chances at each school, but in fact less. The more broadly you apply, the greater the chance you have to approach/surpass the 51.5% chance that you end up in the 51.5% category.

It's been a year since I had statistics, so if any of this is blatantly wrong, please correct me lol.

Increasing the size has a positive effect to a certain point. However eventually if I remember statistics correct you eventually reach a point where your probability or confidence interval stops increasing. So in some theory applying to 20 schools or so = ~ applying to 40 schools in terms of getting in.

 

[lackli]

When are you applying? Will you have time to retake the mcat?

I agree there are many other factors to applying to medical school (15% of people with 39-45 on the MCAT don't get into med school ).

However having a 30+ makes it a little easier to pass the eyeball test for a lot of adcoms. Just using the grid it jumps the admissions percentages from 50 to 70%. On average are the 3.7 GPA candidates with 27-29 MCATs going to be that different from the 3.7 GPA candidates with the 30-32 MCAT in terms of LOR and extra currics? In my opinion not enough to account for such a large jump.

From personal experience sitting in on adcom meetings, if you have really great extra currics or research they won't bat an eye at a 29. But if you're just solid in all the other categories not having a 30+ can hold you back a little.

 

[Geneticist]

Thanks for all the great responses, everyone.

When are you applying? Will you have time to retake the mcat?

I agree there are many other factors to applying to medical school (15% of people with 39-45 on the MCAT don't get into med school ).

However having a 30+ makes it a little easier to pass the eyeball test for a lot of adcoms. Just using the grid it jumps the admissions percentages from 50 to 70%. On average are the 3.7 GPA candidates with 27-29 MCATs going to be that different from the 3.7 GPA candidates with the 30-32 MCAT in terms of LOR and extra currics? In my opinion not enough to account for such a large jump.

From personal experience sitting in on adcom meetings, if you have really great extra currics or research they won't bat an eye at a 29. But if you're just solid in all the other categories not having a 30+ can hold you back a little.

What would classify as "great" EC's? If I have a year of undergrad research, a couple of summers of volunteer work at a local hospital, and solid LOR's, how much will it make up for in GPA/MCAT?

I know it's like serenade said that it's impossibly to quantify such qualitative things, but I'm just curious if it will raise my percentage of getting in significantly enough to overcome a mediocre GPA/MCAT.

If it matters, I will be sending ~ 20 apps to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York and I attend a tough engineering school where a high GPA is hard to come by. Also, I plan on applying as early as possible...

 

[Mithril]

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[apumic]

IF medical school admissions were random, you would see a curve equal to 100-(100-avg acceptance rate)^n percent chance of getting in (where n=number of schools); however, b/c schools' choices tend to correlate fairly strongly, it is more likely that the equation would need n to increase at a rate <1/school added since each new school does not add an entirely new random iteration but simply one with some differences but mostly similarities (i.e., a good candidate for school A is probably a better candidate for school B than is a bad candidate for school A -- in other words, within reason, all schools want many/most of the same things). As a result, if you're a bad applicant at 20 schools, it's highly unlikely school #47 or #62 is going to think much more of you! (Unless, of course, those 20 schools were all top 20 and 47 & 62 are very low-ranking bottom-feeders; in which case, you're falling into the trap of not applying broadly and instead applying to 20 schools that are all the same when it comes to admissions...which sort of an admissions equivalent to incest!)

 

[wereallrelated]

To the OP: You are getting worried for no reason. Actually, you are misusing the probabilities. To make inferences like you did, you would need individual-level data with which you would estimate a logit model. The data you see is aggregate-level data, not individual data. And it is definitely not correct to infer that Texas is a good state. Again, to make inferences about states, you would need individual-level data with which you develop a probit or logit model. In any event OP, there is no point in getting worried about whether or not you can get in. Just do your best and leave the rest to some higher power, if you believe in one. Hope this helps somewhat.

 

[dbeast]

Actually, according to the grid, all you need to do is get a 33-35 MCAT and a 2.0-2.19 GPA and you're 100% going to get in. Don't believe me? Check for yourself.

 

[Geneticist]

Actually, according to the grid, all you need to do is get a 33-35 MCAT and a 2.0-2.19 GPA and you're 100% going to get in. Don't believe me? Check for yourself.

Good grief, you're right! *Starts failing classes immediately*

 

[Suncrusher]

Actually, according to the grid, all you need to do is get a 33-35 MCAT and a 2.0-2.19 GPA and you're 100% going to get in. Don't believe me? Check for yourself.

Both of those 2 people probably had some crazyass non-trad personal statement and a masters with high post-bacc gpa. The grid by itself isn't very helpful, which I know was your real point

@ Geneticist: My damn 33-35 MCAT hasn't done anything for me the past 2 application cycles. I must need an even lower GPA

 

[obgyny]

Good grief, you're right! *Starts failing classes immediately*

 

[wereallrelated]

Actually, according to the grid, all you need to do is get a 33-35 MCAT and a 2.0-2.19 GPA and you're 100% going to get in. Don't believe me? Check for yourself.

Very good point indeed!! That is why you need individual-level rather than aggregate data and then fit a logit or probit to make the kind of inferences that got the OP needlessly worried. Personally, the kind of data AAMC provides is extremely misleading if decisions are to be made based on that data.

 

[WorldChanger36]

OP, I think you are over analysing this. Your grades are good and a 29 MCAT isn't abhorrent although it is in retake range. If you apply to a good broad range of schools you should get in. Retake that MCAT if you can get a higher score if not, don't worry about it. There are threads about how people struggled with the MCAT for multiple reasons be landed med school acceptances. 29 is in range for quite a few schools.

 

[alexrgross]

A retake isnt warranted with your GPA. Your GPA will draw away much of the attention focused on a 29 MCAT. You cant go wrong by creating a plan B scenario for next year in case your apps fall through (extend your enrollment at your institution, obtain a service position in you community, or take a job in the medical or research field)

I always read the grid as probability of being seated in a US medical school.

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

A retake isnt warranted with your GPA. Your GPA will draw away much of the attention focused on a 29 MCAT. You cant go wrong by creating a plan B scenario for next year in case your apps fall through (extend your enrollment at your institution, obtain a service position in you community, or take a job in the medical or research field)

I always read the grid as probability of being seated in a US medical school.

Plan B distracts you from Plan A. Apply smart to a proper range and amount of schools and you'll get in somewhere.