Haha, yea I shouldn't have said 'screw numbers' then quoted them myself.
It was more than hot air that year though, that exception to my terrible generalization. 2012 was the first year there was a difference between number of grads applying for state internships and actual numbers of state internships to offer them by July. (a difference by about 182 - this was not an estimate it was the number calculated by government on audit) That said - a good number of applicants for state internships each year have no genuine interest in remaining in Australia, and that number actually goes up every year.
2012 was also the year the CMIs first were introduced and brought in (after a good deal of lobbying and press). Kicking in very late that year (and now every year), up to a month before internship started. It wasn't premature necessarily. Because a good chunk of people still took up those CMIs - up to 75, I think it was back then (the requirement to CMIs to this day is that you must not have turned down a state offer - this is the last resort). That was the number that started internship on those contracts by January (not applied then bellied up). The government actually wondered why not all 182 applied for a CMI when they became available (either was there was no actual interest in staying in Australia, or between July to December - a few found state positions in the interim).
It was definitely a lot of politics involved and spinning of facts, but it resulted in the creation the CMI, for which we're all eternally thankful for. Ethically it was a bit muddled, to be sure. The government was also sold on creating them because the reps told them internationals were/are willing to go rural and be rural generalists essentially. Helping out with the maldistribution. It also would have been a disaster to the med schools with recruiting full-fee paying international students in the future (and I don't agree with how many internationals some schools take in, it's gone past ridiculous ).
I think the system works...well, to a degree in this rather broken system of medical training. As in, final years apply for state internship, and then the CMI kicks in near the end, mopping up anyone left behind. It's speaks more than surveys if nearly 100 each year still start the intern year on a CMI. I haven't heard of any reports of eligible students not getting a position after the CMI - if they made the increasingly stressful effort that is.
(Apart from 9 this year at UWA, but have no idea if they were actually ineligible by the time of start internship. Each year there are actually dozens of students who are ineligible for CMI - it's a minority group, but they still exist. It just..usually means they end up waiting up to a full year more before finding employment somewhere in the world. For instance the Malaysian International medical school students only in Australia for 2 years don't qualify, or the UQ ochsner students also only around for 2 years in their degrees, people who failed something and got kept behind etc).
Not saying it will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if even CMIs can't sustain things for many more years. There's already an oversupply predicted by 2030 by 7000 doctors. Not that the numbers are impressive, being numbers again, but the fact that the government takes it seriously (reportedly) is the not-so-great part.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/work...id-calls-to-halt-imports-20170103-gtle76.html