You can look at the data and project trends all day long, but individual success or failure is NOT the result of having or not having a college education.
What do I mean by this?
Take the following list of billionaires, every last one a college dropout.
- Bill Gates [5] - US
- Mark Zuckerberg [6] - US
- Lawrence Ellison [7] - US
- Eike Batista [8] - Brazil
- Michael Dell [9] - US
- Marc Rich [10] - US
- Ty Warner [11] - US
- Gautam Adani [12] - India
- Micky Jagtiani [13] - India
- Azim Premji - India
- Shahid Balwa [14] - India
- Subhash Chandra [15] - India
- Vinod Goenka [16] - India
- PNC Menon [17][18] - India
- Roman Abramovich [19] - Russia
- Sheldon Adelson [20] - US
- Amancio Ortega [21] - Spain
- Kirk Kerkorian [22] - US
- Donald Newhouse [23] - US
- François Pinault [24] - France
- Jack Taylor [25] - US
- Joaquín Guzmán Loera [26] (Mexican drug lord) - Mexico
- Dawood Ibrahim [27] (Indian crime-boss) - India
- Li Ka-shing - Hong Kong
- David Geffen [28] - US
- David Murdock [29] - US
- Ted Turner [30] - US
- Henry Fok [31] - Hong Kong
- Ralph Lauren [32] - US
- Micky Arison - US
- Mohammed Al Amoudi [33] - Saudi Arabia
- Stanley Ho [34] - Hong Kong
- Andrew Lloyd Webber - UK
That's 33 people who are wealthy beyond any reasonable standard. Now, while these people are certainly outliers in a ridiculous sort of way, anecdotal evidence suggests that intelligent motivated people can and will make money commensurate with their intelligence, desire to work hard, unique traits or attributes of value, and some random error variance.
This doesn't mean a person can jump into a profession that at a minimum requires a level of training a person does not have, but rather that there are careers and opportunities that do not require a college education as a pre-requisite to entry. Having made 6 figures without a college education and knowing many others who have done the same, I am convinced that an education is not a substitute for any of the above values save for perhaps traits/attributes of value (as an education may give one potentially knowledge, skills, and abilities that they may not have innately possessed).
Academic skills, while useful, will not make or break the career of someone sufficiently intelligent, hardworking, and talented. It just won't. I was never in fear when I didn't have a degree, I knew that I had the intellect, work ethic, and talent to make as much as I needed. Individual results are going to be very different than the population statistics because the average non-college educated person is not running around with a 120-160 IQ, a compulsive work ethic, and a skill set that is valuable to employers. Take a woman I know, she worked for 15 years in tech, no degree. She made $10/hr starting and by the end of year 3 was making over $60k. At year 10 she averaged about $100k over the past 5 years. Still no degree. She has an estimated IQ in the 140-150 range, works hard, has skills that are valued, and had a bit of luck to jump out of the $10/hr tech support job to a $15/hr junior engineer position. From there, she made her own luck.
Back to the statistics, how do you think IQ would fare compared to educational attainment? Do you think that there might be a strong correlation between those to constructs? I certainly would bet on it being significantly higher with educational attainment. This article, albeit old, provides support for that hypothesis - Griliches, Z. & Mason, W.M. (1972) Education, Income, and Ability. Journal of Political Economy Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. S74-S103
"Each point increase in IQ test scores raises income by between $234 and $616 per year after holding a variety of factors constant. Regression results suggest no statistically distinguishable relationship between IQ scores and wealth." - Zagorsky, J.L. (2007) Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress, Intelligence, Volume 35, Issue 5, Pages 489-501