how many interviews are enough?

[velouria]

Now that interview offers are rolling out I'm curious about the 'number needed to match.'

This is inherently unanswerable in that there will be people with 15 interviews who don't match and people with 1 interview who do.

But as a general rule, what are your thoughts on the number of interviews that would make you feel comfortable about your odds of getting a spot?

Is it 5? 10? more?

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[BGriffin]

Now that interview offers are rolling out I'm curious about the 'number needed to match.'

This is inherently unanswerable in that there will be people with 15 interviews who don't match and people with 1 interview who do.

But as a general rule, what are your thoughts on the number of interviews that would make you feel comfortable about your odds of getting a spot?

Is it 5? 10? more?

I've heard that 7 should be enough, but I would personally feel okay with 10. I couldn't locate stats like they have for internal medicine residency and other specialties where they show the rate of matching vs. length of rank list.

 

[Maximuss]

Now that interview offers are rolling out I'm curious about the 'number needed to match.'

This is inherently unanswerable in that there will be people with 15 interviews who don't match and people with 1 interview who do.

But as a general rule, what are your thoughts on the number of interviews that would make you feel comfortable about your odds of getting a spot?

Is it 5? 10? more?

Theoretically, the programs interview 10 applicants for each position (if they have 2 pos, they invite 20, 4 pos they invite 40, etc...). So your chances there will be 10% for each iv..
If you do the maths, 10 iv should increase your odds to 100%, therefore guarantee you the match. Unless your interview really sucked and the program decided not to rank you..

 

[johnnywalker]

Theoretically, the programs interview 10 applicants for each position (if they have 2 pos, they invite 20, 4 pos they invite 40, etc...). So your chances there will be 10% for each iv..
If you do the maths, 10 iv should increase your odds to 100%, therefore guarantee you the match. Unless your interview really sucked and the program decided not to rank you..

i dont that math works like that

 

[Dabigatran]

As you said there is no magic number ,for me 5 would be OK ,and thank god I got them by now !!

Good Luck

 

[SoonerDO]

I matched last year with only 3 interviews, 1 of which was a courtesy from my home program. You just have to present yourself well at your interview.

Good luck!

 

[snowshooter]

I matched last year with only 3 interviews, 1 of which was a courtesy from my home program. You just have to present yourself well at your interview.

Good luck!

Is it the home program or one of the other two?

 

[SoonerDO]

One of the other 2...home program interview was nothing more than courtesy, as they interview everyone who applies from within.

 

[snowshooter]

One of the other 2...home program interview was nothing more than courtesy, as they interview everyone who applies from within.

Thanks a lot.... I am in similar situation. It gives me hope that I can still pull off, even if I dont match in my home program.

 

[Joshdav]

The truth is that there is no magic number. People come up with all these calculations/formula. Although having more interviews improves the chance that you will match, other factors play a role. For example, if you have an average CV and fortunately get interviews in the top programs, your chance of matching may be worse than another applicant with 2-3 interviews in OK programs that admire his/her accomplishment.
I have heard of folks with 14 interviews, unmatched and 3 interviews matched.
Prepare very well for your interviews and execute well when you interview. The rest . . .

 

[cards2012]

I was interested in the question and so did a simple stats.
1) 1st iv chances of matching 10%
2) chances of ROL going to the 2nd choice then is 90%
3) chances of matching in 2nd choice is 10% again = 0.9 * 0.1 = 0.09 or 9%
4) therefore if you had 2 interviews ur chances of matching are 19%
5) to extrapolate this, chances of matching in 8 interviews is 52%, 10 interviews is 61%, 15 interviews is 77%. you never reach 100% as Maximuss suggested previously.
This calculation assumes that out of all the applicants interviewing, you are the median in competitiveness.

 

[oscillation]

I was interested in the question and so did a simple stats.
1) 1st iv chances of matching 10%
2) chances of ROL going to the 2nd choice then is 90%
3) chances of matching in 2nd choice is 10% again = 0.9 * 0.1 = 0.09 or 9%
4) therefore if you had 2 interviews ur chances of matching are 19%
5) to extrapolate this, chances of matching in 8 interviews is 52%, 10 interviews is 61%, 15 interviews is 77%. you never reach 100% as Maximuss suggested previously.
This calculation assumes that out of all the applicants interviewing, you are the median in competitiveness.

I would like to disagree with your interpretation. First of all, chances of going to the 2nd ROL is not the same as chances of matching with the 2nd choice. Once you go to the 2nd program, the whole probability game repeats itself because a program interviews 10 per spot,as suggested. Assuming that everyone has equal shot at it (the basic principle in probability), Maximus is correct in pointing out that if one gets 10 interviews then the probability of securing the position is 1 or 100%.
Good luck to everyone.

 

[oscillation]

I was interested in the question and so did a simple stats.
1) 1st iv chances of matching 10%
2) chances of ROL going to the 2nd choice then is 90%
3) chances of matching in 2nd choice is 10% again = 0.9 * 0.1 = 0.09 or 9%
4) therefore if you had 2 interviews ur chances of matching are 19%
5) to extrapolate this, chances of matching in 8 interviews is 52%, 10 interviews is 61%, 15 interviews is 77%. you never reach 100% as Maximuss suggested previously.
This calculation assumes that out of all the applicants interviewing, you are the median in competitiveness.

By the way, chances of going to your 2nd ROL depends upon the number of programs in your ROL (again assuming all the outcomes are equally likely).

 

[cards2012]

I would like to disagree with your interpretation. First of all, chances of going to the 2nd ROL is not the same as chances of matching with the 2nd choice. Once you go to the 2nd program, the whole probability game repeats itself because a program interviews 10 per spot,as suggested. Assuming that everyone has equal shot at it (the basic principle in probability), Maximus is correct in pointing out that if one gets 10 interviews then the probability of securing the position is 1 or 100%.
Good luck to everyone.

Hi oscillation,
You yourself pointed out that chances of not matching to your first ranked program is 90%. Thus, chances of a consideration of your 2nd choice is 90%. Of that 90%, chances of matching to that 2nd program is again 10%. Therefore, chances of not matching in your top 2 choices is 81%.
In statistics, there is nothing like 100%, never.
My only point was that in the end its your comfort level but there is never a 100% guarantee of matching. With 8 interviews, you have more chances of matching than not matching..

 

[oscillation]

Hi oscillation,
You yourself pointed out that chances of not matching to your first ranked program is 90%. Thus, chances of a consideration of your 2nd choice is 90%. Of that 90%, chances of matching to that 2nd program is again 10%. Therefore, chances of not matching in your top 2 choices is 81%.
In statistics, there is nothing like 100%, never.
My only point was that in the end its your comfort level but there is never a 100% guarantee of matching. With 8 interviews, you have more chances of matching than not matching..

In probability all the outcomes must be equally likely, if not then you are favoring certain outcome thus, you can't apply any principle of probability period.
The chances of going to 2nd ROL and chances of matching in the 2nd ROL are two different Universes. Your chances of going to2nd program in ROL depend upon of the number of programs you have in ROL (I never said it is 90%).

 

[cards2012]

In probability all the outcomes must be equally likely, if not then you are favoring certain outcome thus, you can’t apply any principle of probability period.
The chances of going to 2nd ROL and chances of matching in the 2nd ROL are two different Universes. Your chances of going to ROL depend upon of the number of programs you have in ROL (I never said it is 90%).

okay, again the 10% does not come from the interviews you get but number of applicants invited for every seat by the program. No matter how many interviews you get your chances of matching to your first choice remains 10% (big caveat: this is considering that your application is somewhere in the middle of the pool of applicants the program has interviewed). I just don't know why you are saying "Your chances of going to ROL depend upon of the number of programs you have in ROL". Again, the probability is calculated from the number of applicants the program interviews and not how many you go to..

 

[bullscards]

I went through the application process 3 years ago (interviewed at 8 programs, and matched at Midwest university program). On the day of the match, the NRMP website made available (among many things) match outcomes for all programs, the number of positions offered and filled for all programs, and detailed match results statistics. These statistics included the average number of ranked programs for applicants who ended up matching. 3 years ago, of those who matched in cardiology, the average number of programs ranked was 7. That is the number of programs ranked, not necessarily the number of interviews one went on. I was offered 10 interviews, went on 8 due to time/travel constraints, and ranked 7 programs. I hope this helps. Good luck.

 

[dragonfly99]

The number of interviews you need to be pretty "safe" will vary according to a lot of things - whether you are FMG/IMG, whether you have a good chance at your home program or not, how good you are in interview-type situations, and whether or not you have someone strongly pushing your application (faculty going to bat for you). If you are an average cardiology applicant and your program has your back, they will probably help see to it that you match (if you are US allopathic grad applying to US allopathic programs). If you go on 7-10 interviews, your chances to match should be very high. There are people who match with only 1-2 interviews, particularly if they convince the program they will definitely go there if they get ranked high enough. There are people with >10 interviews who don't match - for instance, a candidate who doesn't get in to his home program, looks pretty competitive but no particular person "pushing" his application and doesn't convince any particular program(s) that he really, really preferentially wants to go there and would be a good fit. Or maybe someone who looks a bit competitive for some of the programs, so they don't think they'll get him, but then not competitive enough to get into the top few programs on his list.

 

[NaughtyGirl]

Dragonfly and others..anecdoctally what number have you heard from friends or program directors do most AMG applicants fall on their rank list.

 

[Crazy Diamond]

The number of interviews you need to be pretty "safe" will vary according to a lot of things - whether you are FMG/IMG, whether you have a good chance at your home program or not, how good you are in interview-type situations, and whether or not you have someone strongly pushing your application (faculty going to bat for you). If you are an average cardiology applicant and your program has your back, they will probably help see to it that you match (if you are US allopathic grad applying to US allopathic programs). If you go on 7-10 interviews, your chances to match should be very high. There are people who match with only 1-2 interviews, particularly if they convince the program they will definitely go there if they get ranked high enough. There are people with >10 interviews who don't match - for instance, a candidate who doesn't get in to his home program, looks pretty competitive but no particular person "pushing" his application and doesn't convince any particular program(s) that he really, really preferentially wants to go there and would be a good fit. Or maybe someone who looks a bit competitive for some of the programs, so they don't think they'll get him, but then not competitive enough to get into the top few programs on his list.

well said

 

[Phospholipid]

Theoretically, the programs interview 10 applicants for each position (if they have 2 pos, they invite 20, 4 pos they invite 40, etc...). So your chances there will be 10% for each iv..
If you do the maths, 10 iv should increase your odds to 100%, therefore guarantee you the match. Unless your interview really sucked and the program decided not to rank you..

This is completely wrong. I have devised a way to estimate your chance of matching. For example, lets just say you have 5 interviews. You have to determine your chance of not matching in each interview in each program, and multiply it together. Then your results will be your chances of not matching. Take (1 - chance of not matching) is yr chance of matching.

For example:

1st program: Interview 60 people for 4 spots, but traditionally goes to 20 on their rank list to fill the 4 spots. Just by statistics alone, you have 1/3 (20/60) in matching, 0r 2/3 (0.67) chance of not matching
2nd program: Interview 40 people for 4 spots, traditionally goes to 20 on their rank list, so you have a 50% chance of matching, or 50% chance of not matching
3rd program: Interviews 30 for 2 spots, traditionally goes to 15 on their rank list, BUT, this program, you have some inside information that they will rank you in top 10. So yr chances are definately > 50% of matching, but difficult to say how much more, but just for completion sake, I estimate that I have 60% chance of matching here, hence 40% of not matching
4th program: Interviews 50 for 5 spots, traditionally goes to 30 positions, BUT, this program you have some inside information, and people tell you your chances are not good, that they will rank you last. So just say, you have 5% of matching here (maybe they exhaust all their rank list this year), or 95% of not matching here
5th program: Interviews 100 for 20 spots, but got inside information, they think you're an idiot, and they will not be ranking you. 100% chance of not matching.

Taking all into account. 0.67 x 0.50 x 0.40 x 0.95 x 1 = 0.13

Therefore, you have 13% chance of not matching, or 87% chance of matching given the scenario above. This is how it works. It does not matter how you rank the above program (i.e. what program is #1, or last), as long as you rank them all, your chances of matching in anywhere is the same, but where you end up may differ.

Now take for example, you have a 6th interview, and they rank you #1, and it does not matter where you rank them, as long as you rank them on the ROL. So now, for this 5th interview, you have 100% chance of matching, 0% chance of not matching. If you throw it into the calculation

0.67 x 0.50 x 0.40 x 0.95 x 1 x 0 = 0

Congratulations, you have 0% chance of not matching, hence 100% chance of matching.

Of course for this to be accurate, you have to give yourself an honest assessment, where do you think the program will rank you on the rank list. In the above poster's example of 2 positions and invite 20, your chance of matching here given an interview is not 10%, it depends on how far the rank list that program goes. Hope this makes sense.

 

[gutonc]

Dude...enough. Your "statistical model" relies on 2 things you can never have. First, your position on the ROL, the number of interviews, ranks and depth on ROL that each program where you interviewed goes. You can make the numbers up (like you did) but you'll never actually know then. Second, it requires the applicant to give an honest assessment of their own strength as an applicant. Have you even met med students and residents?

There are actual, real data out there to help people determine their chances (Charting Outcomes).

 

[Phospholipid]

Have you even met med students and residents?

I am a high school student

 

[P Diddy]

I am a high school student

please, more.

p diddy

 

[gutonc]

I am a high school student

Really? You've been on SDN since you were in 4th grade?

Trollololol

 

[sacrament]

If you do the maths, 10 iv should increase your odds to 100%, therefore guarantee you the match.

This completely encapsulates how poorly we teach statistics in this country.

Maximus is correct in pointing out that if one gets 10 interviews then the probability of securing the position is 1 or 100%.

You people are killing me.

Just to point out how crazy this is, even within the context of this ultra-simplified model:
"When you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance that you'll get heads. ERGO, if you flip it twice, 2 * 0.5 = 1 therefore you have a 100% chance of getting heads within two flips!"

 

[Phospholipid]

This completely encapsulates how poorly we teach statistics in this country.


You people are killing me.

Just to point out how crazy this is, even within the context of this ultra-simplified model:
"When you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance that you'll get heads. ERGO, if you flip it twice, 2 * 0.5 = 1 therefore you have a 100% chance of getting heads within two flips!"

If you have for example, 5 interviews, and you believe yr chances of matching in each one is 50%, then the general model is
Chance of not matching = (0.5) ^ 5 = 3%, thus 97% chance of matching
You treat each interview as a separate event not linked to the other, similar to determining odds at gambling/casinos.
Any additional inside information you may know can be incorporated into your analysis as I outlined. Pretty straight forward statistics.

 

[gutonc]

You're really making a fool out of yourself now...please stop.

 

[femalecardiologist]

Please stop this nonsense. I posted this a few weeks ago. This is all you need

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/chartingoutcomessms2011.pdf

Page 20
Probability of Matching to Preferred Specialty by Number of Contiguous Ranks
Cardiovascular Disease

 

[Phospholipid]

You're really making a fool out of yourself now...please stop.

You must not be understanding the simple concept of what I am trying to get at, this must be why this is bothering you. I did not realize that it could be this hard for some people, especially a physician, including yourself. I am sorry.

 

[gutonc]

I don't understand crazy...that's true enough. And you clearly don't understand statistics. So I guess we're even then.

 

[future heart fixer]

It all depends on who you know man. I have no cardiology papers, I am on h1-visa, I have done only one interview and also 5 years out of residency working as hospitalist. And I matched to start cadiology fellowship in july, 2015. its all who you know man.

 

[desdinova]

It all depends on who you know man. I have no cardiology papers, I am on h1-visa, I have done only one interview and also 5 years out of residency working as hospitalist. And I matched to start cadiology fellowship in july, 2015. its all who you know man.

I second that. Connections are everything especially if resume is not impressive.