How much better is a 39 vs. a 37?

[MassFX]

tl;dr - An MCAT score of 39 is obviously somewhat better than a 37, in terms of getting accepted to a good med school. But how much better?

Input from admissions officers would be greatly appreciated. Calling @Goro @gyngyn @LizzyM and anyone I have forgotten. Input from all others is also sought and graciously accepted.

Please don't tell me "stop dwelling on it" or "you can't change the past", I already know all that and I have resolved that posting this thread is the last self-indulgent wallowing I will do on this topic.

I got a 37 on the December 6th 2014 MCAT, but I was disappointed because my practice average was 39 or 40, with an upward trend. My final practice score was a 42. I didn't study very much for the MCAT because I was busy with other things. I blame myself for not scoring higher.

I am trying not to beat myself up about it. The test is over and done, I cannot change the past. I made a deal with myself: I will create this thread, read the replies, and then just move on. There is nothing else I can do. I certainly shouldn't retake the MCAT.

37 is the median score at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale. 38 is the median score at just two schools, UPenn and Washington University in Saint Louis.

Looking at the AAMC table for all applicants combined, the chance of receiving at least one acceptance with my GPA and an MCAT of 36 to 38 is 89.5%. The chance with an MCAT of 39 to 45 is 91.6%. However, looking at the table for just white applicants (I am white), the figures are about 89.5% for my score and 93.5% for a 39-45. The size of the difference is about twice as large for whites, I am guessing that is just a coincidence, but I don't know.

How big is the difference between 37 and 39 at a top-tier school? What about at a mid-tier school?

Academics are probably the strongest part of my application. However, I finished undergrad several years ago, and I wanted to really blast the MCAT out of the water to show that I had not forgotten my prerequisite course work.

I am now focusing on the weakest parts of my application: physician shadowing and patient contact.

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[Goro]

As you yourself point out, 39 is above avg for the top schools, vs a 37 being avg.

For the mid tier schools, like, say, Mt Sinai or Pitt, a 37 is still at or above avg. But stats get you to the door; ECs get you through the door.
At some point top end scores becoming dfiminishing returns. Is there really a difference between a 98 on a test and a 95? At some point, it's healthy to say "who cares?"
How big is the difference between 37 and 39 at a top-tier school? What about at a mid-tier school?

It's OK to strove for perfection, however, being a perfectionist is not healthy. if you try to learn everything, you'll end up learning nothing.

Academics are probably the strongest part of my application. However, I finished undergrad several years ago, and I wanted to really blast the MCAT out of the water to show that I had not forgotten my prerequisite course work.

This is good, because 4.0 automatons are a dime a dozen.
I am now focusing on the weakest parts of my application: physician shadowing and patient contact.

 

[IslandStyle808]

You would be surprised how often this question is actually asked. I recall LizzyM stating at anything after a 35 is diminishing returns. There are several people like yourself that get 42 MCAT practice averages and end up with scores in the mid 30s on the real thing. There are so little gains to be made in MCAT score at this point that could be made in other areas of your application such as clinical experience, volunteer experience, and research. The advice that Goro has given you is golden.

 

[efle]

I've heard that those couple extra points in that range can make you significantly more attractive to schools currently trying to climb by boosting their average stats (seems like Vandy might be doing this) and obviously MCAT gets a heavier focus at wustl/penn than say Hopkins. your answer probably varies by school