Internal Medicine applicants on track to break previous year records

[IMPD]

At an event this week to advise medical students about the upcoming application season I realized that there is no hope in the AAIM's attempt to reduce numbers of IM applications. http://www.im.org/inflation

In 1987, 94% of US Seniors Matched.
In 2016, 93.8% of US Seniors Matched.

In 1997, 84.4% US Seniors Matched at one of their top 4 programs.
In 2016, 80.5% US Seniors Matched at one of their top 4 programs.

And, looking at the surgical subs, we can see that the risk of going unmatched is not insignificant in certain situations:

For those who ONLY ranked the specialty on their rank list and went unmatched (no back up specialty):

Derm 18.9%
Neuro Surg 19.7%
Ortho 20.8%
Plastic 10%
Vascular 13%


So, there are dynamics at play that create a perception of "increasing" competitiveness. I think this arises from those unfortunate souls who are going without backup and the increasingly nationalization of recruitment.

Is there a path back to 15 applications and 12 interviews, at least for Medicine?

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[AdmiralChz]

I think the 15 applications is still very plausible, but honestly probably only for senior US MDs that aren't in the bottom 1/4 of their class. For DOs and MDs on the bottom end, their applications will and probably should increase to broaden their matching chances. I see no foul there at all.

That being said, the applicant numbers (especially number of programs per applicant) in primary care (and subspecialty) are likely inflated by IMGs (some who are very qualified, but many who are not at all) who apply to almost every program under the sun as a total scattershot. And like you just alluded, with more and more programs looking less favorably on IMGs (fair or unfair is not a disctinction I am making, just a fact) will probably keep that trend alive.