Kaplan FL vs. MCAT 2015

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aldol16

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Hi guys,

There have been a lot of posts recently about mapping FLs from test prep companies to the real deal and people have been struggling with reconciling their scores during practice to what to expect on the real thing. In particular, it may be hard to decide whether to reschedule if you have no idea if your practice scores actually reflect your preparation for the real deal. To help a little with this, I looked at the SDN data on Kaplan FLs from users who took the MCAT 2015 and tried to see how they all performed on each exam. Using this data, I generated the attached plot of Kaplan FL scores vs. MCAT 2015 for people who took the exam in January 2016. In this sample, n ~ 40, so it's still pretty small, but you might find it useful. In preparing this graph, people who took multiple Kaplan FLs had each score reported and mapped to their actual MCAT score so it's basically a weighted average of the exams.

MCAT.png


As you can see, there is a rough correlation (albeit not a particularly statistically strong one) between how well you do on the Kaplan FLs and how well you do on the actual thing. I would use it as a rough estimate of where you are in your studies.

This is intended to provide a rough measure of how you stand relative to others who have already taken the exam recently and it is not meant to predict your score in any way. Additionally, I would not recommend ceasing your practice after doing one FL and seeing that people who scored in a similar range as you all performed at your target score on the real thing. This is because most people took more than several FLs, from several companies including the AAMC ones, and so their actual score reflects the sum of their studying and progress over many FLs. I hope this will help guide your studies.

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Can you drop a y=x line on the graph and match the x and y axis ranges? The linear fit doesn't tell us a whole lot about accuracy, but if they're all clustered north of the y=x line it tells quite a bit more about the difficulty of the Kaplan MCAT.

I can and have on my own version of this but I didn't do that here because I don't want people using a fit to try to predict their own scores because as I said, this is not meant to hold any predictive power whatsoever. But from my own visual of the line, I can tell you that the data points are fairly evenly distributed about the line of best fit. The r^2 value is 0.36, so the correlation is not great, but the way I would use the graph is to get a rough range of what scores you're looking at (e.g. if you're in the 505 range for the Kaplan, then others who have scored similarly to you have been in the 508-523 range). In general, you can see that the graph is shifted upwards from a 1:1 relationship, meaning that the Kaplan FLs are, on average, more difficult than the real thing.
 
Oh, I see what you mean. You can clearly tell from the graph itself that the data points are shifted up relative to a 1:1 relationship.
 
In preparing this graph, people who took multiple Kaplan FLs had each score reported and mapped to their actual MCAT score so it's basically a weighted average of the exams.

So it seems like your graph is showing that the Kaplan exam is pretty similar to the real thing? At least, score wise...
 
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Also for that person who got a 494 on the Kaplan FL and then 516 on AAMC test, was the 494 the Kaplan diagnostic before studying or their actual FL score...:bored:
 
Also for that person who got a 494 on the Kaplan FL and then 516 on AAMC test, was the 494 the Kaplan diagnostic before studying or their actual FL score...:bored:

That was not specified in their post. For all those who specified that a score was from a diagnostic test, their statistics were omitted. Another thing to note is that if someone scored 499, 500, 505 and then scored 515 on the real thing, each of their practice FL scores were matched to their actual score. So the graph really represents an average of the entire period people spend studying.
 
Ah, this is somewhat reassuring to see... I've been scoring just shy of 500 on Kaplan FL's and it's been very discouraging lately. I've been studying via Kaplan for over two months now and genuinely feel a lot better prepared, but my scores haven't improved as much as I would have hoped. All I want is a 508+ on May 20th.
 
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I don't know what to think about this data. I want to believe it, but how can there be so many scores above 515? That's the 93rd percentile. Are we to believe that everyone taking the Kaplan tests is scoring near the 90th percentile? That obviously can't be the case.

My scores have been:
Diagnostic: 500
FL2: 506
FL1: 500

I took FL2 before FL1 on accident. I was very discouraged when I saw a 6 point drop after another 3 weeks of studying.
 
I don't know what to think about this data. I want to believe it, but how can there be so many scores above 515? That's the 93rd percentile. Are we to believe that everyone taking the Kaplan tests is scoring near the 90th percentile? That obviously can't be the case.

People who score high are more likely to report so you are likely to see somewhat skewed results. These again are not meant to predict but rather to serve as rough guidance.
 
People who score high are more likely to report so you are likely to see somewhat skewed results. These again are not meant to predict but rather to serve as rough guidance.
That's a good point, but it begs the question of how skewed the results are. Not everybody is going to take a Kap prep course or any MCAT prep course. In fact, there's probably a few hundred people that do not study at all or do minimal studying who throw the curve off. Not to mention the thousands of people that study, but not with the same kind of material as Kaplan provides. I mean, 11 practice tests and a question bank! That's a gold mine. Maybe people who take Kaplan and make use of their resources generally just score better and that's what we tend to see. Then again, this could be me trying to reassure my MCAT neurosis...
 
That's a good point, but it begs the question of how skewed the results are. Not everybody is going to take a Kap prep course or any MCAT prep course. In fact, there's probably a few hundred people that do not study at all or do minimal studying who throw the curve off. Not to mention the thousands of people that study, but not with the same kind of material as Kaplan provides. I mean, 11 practice tests and a question bank! That's a gold mine. Maybe people who take Kaplan and make use of their resources generally just score better and that's what we tend to see. Then again, this could be me trying to reassure my MCAT neurosis...

One can interpret the data in many ways. The one thing I ask of everybody on here is to not use this as a predictive tool because it serves no predictive purpose. If people continue to use it in a predictive manner, I will remove the chart. That said, the data is likely skewed but perhaps not as much as you think. Many of those data points were just from the FLs 1-3, meaning that many people only studied from the books and not through a prep course. Sure, there is a bias towards people who do well to report but then again, the fact that you are on this forum means that you care enough to look at the data and thus are likely similar to the people who reported their scores. Therefore, while these data points may not be representative of the general population, they might be representative of the people who come on here. Again, this is pure speculation, but so is any other interpretation of the data. The only thing the data tells you is what the data tells you.
 
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Well this is reassuring. I haven't broken a 500 on my Kaplan FLs yet. I've taken 3 FLs so far (495, 497, 494).

Kaplan's tests are hard man..
 
Well this is reassuring. I haven't broken a 500 on my Kaplan FLs yet. I've taken 3 FLs so far (495, 497, 494).

Kaplan's tests are hard man..
Story of my life... 494/498/497 and I'm exactly three weeks til test day. Gonna pop in another 3 FL's after final exams but it's hard staying motivated when these FL's and practice questions are RKO'ing me back to back.
 
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Story of my life... 494/498/497 and I'm exactly three weeks til test day. Gonna pop in another 3 FL's after final exams but it's hard staying motivated when these FL's and practice questions are RKO'ing me back to back.

Ah good luck...at least you can get your application ready and apply early. I have to wait til August to get my score back. (Testing on July 9th)
 
Ah good luck...at least you can get your application ready and apply early. I have to wait til August to get my score back. (Testing on July 9th)
Yeah... assuming my score is satisfactory when I get it back (-fingers crossed-). While this data doesn't prove we'll do well, it's enough to confirm my doubts about Kaplan FL's ability to predict real MCAT scores.

Good luck to you too!
 
Ah, this is somewhat reassuring to see... I've been scoring just shy of 500 on Kaplan FL's and it's been very discouraging lately. I've been studying via Kaplan for over two months now and genuinely feel a lot better prepared, but my scores haven't improved as much as I would have hoped. All I want is a 508+ on May 20th.
Hey! If you don't mind me asking, how did you do on the real MCAT in May? I have also been using Kaplan to prepare and am taking the test next week. Just want to get an idea of what to expect!
 
Ah, this is somewhat reassuring to see... I've been scoring just shy of 500 on Kaplan FL's and it's been very discouraging lately. I've been studying via Kaplan for over two months now and genuinely feel a lot better prepared, but my scores haven't improved as much as I would have hoped. All I want is a 508+ on May 20th.

Hey! If you don't mind me asking, how did you score on the real MCAT in May? I am also using Kaplan to prep and am taking the test next week. Just want to see what to expect!
 
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Hey! If you don't mind me asking, how did you do on the real MCAT in May? I have also been using Kaplan to prepare and am taking the test next week. Just want to get an idea of what to expect!
Funny that you ask... Here's my 5/20 MCAT Horror Story :bang:

They rescheduled me (at the same site) for 6/02 as well. I got through about half of it and it was going pretty smoothly. The Chem/Phys section was a bit tricky, but I got through it just in time. The CARS was going really well- many of my passages were regarding fields I was familiar with, though I think I was a bit crunched on time. I can't discuss any specifics regarding my exam though, per AAMC guidelines (not like I remember many specifics anyways, ha). Kaplan had some obscurities and seems to deflate scores, but I still felt well-prepared (if not over-prepared) from going through Kaplan's course and their Q-Bank.

Best of luck next week! :)
 
Funny that you ask... Here's my 5/20 MCAT Horror Story :bang:

They rescheduled me (at the same site) for 6/02 as well. I got through about half of it and it was going pretty smoothly. The Chem/Phys section was a bit tricky, but I got through it just in time. The CARS was going really well- many of my passages were regarding fields I was familiar with, though I think I was a bit crunched on time. I can't discuss any specifics regarding my exam though, per AAMC guidelines (not like I remember many specifics anyways, ha). Kaplan had some obscurities and seems to deflate scores, but I still felt well-prepared (if not over-prepared) from going through Kaplan's course and their Q-Bank.

Best of luck next week! :)

Oh my God! I am so sorry that that happened to you :( How have you been doing on the Kaplan FLs? Also, where are you taking your test?!
 
Oh my God! I am so sorry that that happened to you :( How have you been doing on the Kaplan FLs? Also, where are you taking your test?!

Kaplan diagnostic: 494 (January)
FL1: 499 (February)
FL2: 497 (March)
FL3: 503 (April)
AAMC Scored Practice: 512 (May)

note: I'm only doing section-lengths now for chem/phys and psyc/soc since they're my weakest and I don't want to burnout from a FL so close to test day.

The FL's are good to practice your endurance and gauge improvement, but the actual scores seem super deflated. How have yours been?

And my test location is New Horizon Computer Learning Center in St. Louis. I live hundreds of miles away from there though, unfortunately, and it was my nearest option for both 5/20 and my rescheduled 6/02 date...
 
I shout sampling bias

I could take it down, if you like. This isn't a scientific study nor did it purport to be one. Data is data and each data set has its implicit biases. It is assumed that the reader will take these into account when using it.
 
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Im not against the chart lol im just noticing that majority of data pts are above 510 Im sure some ppl will find this data useful :)


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Story of my life... 494/498/497 and I'm exactly three weeks til test day. Gonna pop in another 3 FL's after final exams but it's hard staying motivated when these FL's and practice questions are RKO'ing me back to back.
Just curious for comparison to your FL scores-what was your diagnostic score?
 
Just curious for comparison to your FL scores-what was your diagnostic score?
Sorry for the confusion, but I just merged my diagnostic into that dataset. The 494 was my diagnostic, and my subsequent Kaplan FL's were 498, 497, 503, and then a 512 on AAMC scored (all in that order). Real deal is in two days :/
 
My kaplan full lengths have been 501. 503, and then back down to 501. Should I be worried? I'm scared that I dropped 2 points on my last full length.

My test is August 5th:0
 
So how did you all do on your actual exam???
I swung an 84th percentile total (510; 130/126/126/128). Nothing amazing, but good enough to be competitive at many places. I'll take it.

Edit: I'd recommend changing username if that's your real name
 
^ None of the test prep companies tests are good indicators of an actual score. Just use them for pacing and passage practice.

Rely on AAMC1 & 2 to gauge your readiness. I found TPR to be pretty bad though, worse than Kaplan's tests.
 
I have done a couple of Kaplan and TPR exams. I believe both are similar in terms of difficulty, as evidence of my consistency on the scores (although I was expecting improvement).

I noticed that TPR has longer CARS passages...wondering if that's representative on the MCAT? Occasionally I would get a passage that might have over 750 words.
 
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