Matching odds

[medstudent1096]

Hey all.

We're all stressing right now with the match decision coming on monday, myself especially, so I was looking for any potential support/information about my chances.

The interview season: 4 interviews- 2 IM, 2 FM. Two of the IVs went outstanding, with the PD from both programs saying they would like to see me there. The other two went well, but I received nowhere near the feedback from the first two.

Long story short is that this grey cloud of uncertainty is eating away at me and I wanted to know how likely it would be to match into my #1 program that ranked me well in their top 1/3 (I know where I stand on their end and its ~20 to 30 out of 150). This is a FM program

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[nVictus]

I went to med school to medicine, not maths. But, I majored in statistics and my professional opinion is that you'll match at your #1 100%.

 

[Tylermall1]

I went to med school to medicine, not maths. But, I majored in statistics and my professional opinion is that you'll match at your #1 100%.

What is best way to secure position during SOAP ? We are limited to 35 programs to apply in SOAP.
Do you apply first for program you went for interview ? or apply first you never got interview from previous application submitted ? or apply totally new programs you never applied ?. I got one answer. i am looking for my answers.

 

[shenanigi]

i am looking for my answers.

Meditation may be your friend

 

[shiftingmirage]

What is best way to secure position during SOAP ? We are limited to 35 programs to apply in SOAP.
Do you apply first for program you went for interview ? or apply first you never got interview from previous application submitted ? or apply totally new programs you never applied ?. I got one answer. i am looking for my answers.

Programs you never applied to.

 

[Tylermall1]

Programs you never applied to.

Hi Shiftingmirage


Thanks for quick reply to my question. Do you mind telling me your reason for " Program you never applied to " . Do you have any experience from your friends or PD ?
I will appreciate your quick reply before SOAP starts on Monday.

 

[Iamnotme]

Hi Shiftingmirage


Thanks for quick reply to my question. Do you mind telling me your reason for " Program you never applied to " . Do you have any experience from your friends or PD ?
I will appreciate your quick reply before SOAP starts on Monday.

Questions like these should really be answered by your dean's office. You should make an appointment with your dean's office sooner rather than later if you are concerned about SOAP.

 

[Raryn]

Two questions:
1) What makes you think we can tell you what your odds are?
2) How will knowing what your odds are affect where you go from here?

I could tell you that your odds are 99% of matching to your #1 choice or 1% and it can't affect anything whatsoever.

If I had to guess based on averages over hundreds of programs and thousands of applicants, most programs go 5-7 spots down their list for every spot that they have in the match. So if your top program has 10 spots and you're ranked higher than 50, chances are you'd match there. But your real chance is either 100% or 0%, and you'll find out in a week.

 

[Law2Doc]

Two questions:
1) What makes you think we can tell you what your odds are?
2) How will knowing what your odds are affect where you go from here?

I could tell you that your odds are 99% of matching to your #1 choice or 1% and it can't affect anything whatsoever.

If I had to guess based on averages over hundreds of programs and thousands of applicants, most programs go 5-7 spots down their list for every spot that they have in the match. So if your top program has 10 spots and you're ranked higher than 50, chances are you'd match there. But your real chance is either 100% or 0%, and you'll find out in a week.

Even then you have to be careful. I'm not sure "most programs" is necessarily true -- there's a continuum of programs with some that go deeper and others not, depending on relative competitiveness within their specialty. The average program in X field might go 50 deep to get 10, but that's too many unknowns and few are the average.

So basically you could interview at one program and if you are a superstar and the program tends to go deep in their list you have very good odds of matching. Conversely, you could interview at 25 programs and get none for a Variety of reasons. No way to give a useful statistical info, even if we knew everything about you (OP). If you think interviews went well, that's a good sign.

 

[Law2Doc]

Questions like these should really be answered by your dean's office. You should make an appointment with your dean's office sooner rather than later if you are concerned about SOAP.

Meh, as you know from the other threads about taking Monday off, there are so many neurotic seniors afraid they will have to soap, but the vast majority won't. There's plenty of time to meet with your dean Monday afternoon for the couple of people per school that need to soap. Best to be on/near campus Monday if you are worried.

 

[nshams]

Based on the # of IVs, you're probably an IMG. ECFMG has new data for IMGs (current as of 2013):

http://www.ecfmg.org/resources/NRMP...atch-International-Medical-Graduates-2014.pdf

It lets you look at a LOT of parameters like visa status, scores, US Clinical experience, etc. So if you're bored/terrified, you can look through the data & get a rough estimate of how candidates similar to you did in previous years.