Ortho chances for a below average applicant?

[premedguyMD]

So I am an MS3 student and recently finished my surgery rotation. I always thought I would hate surgery, but ended up loving it. I recently spent some time shadowing an ortho surgeon, and realized this is what I want to do.
Here is my problem:
Step 1: 230
Preclinical Grades: No honors, all pass. Average student
Clinical grades so far: All pass, no honors.
I still have ob/gyn, pediatrics, neurology, and internal medicine left.

I have 2 publications in hem/onc
I go to a mid-tier school in Ohio

My 2 questions are:

1) What do you think my chances of matching are?

2) My school offers an annual 1 year ortho research fellowship position. Should I take a year off after 3rd year and apply for this?
I would prefer to not take a year off, however if my chances are minimal, then I would do whatever it takes.

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[Dr.Surgeon]

You should try and honor The rest of your rotations esp OB since it's kinda surgical and kill step 2. Another thing I would do is contact your school's ortho dept and try to do some research, get in with PD and review your CV/stats and get some feedback, hang around the dept/shadow/go to their lectures so they know who you are and that you want to be there and are willing to be there on your days off...hope this helps.