I thought of posting this in a new thread, but decided to do it here since this discussion already has a lot of useful info for folks who are considering getting into PT.
Many members of my extended family are pharmacists, and whenever we have family gatherings we end up discussing pharmacy and the future of pharmacists. According to them, there is now a mismatch between pharmacy grads and job openings. Sign-on bonuses are a thing of the past, starting salaries show sign of stagnation (and may even drift downwards soon) and working conditions are becoming more difficult.
This article, written in 2010, presciently foresaw what would happen:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3058448/
Cliff Notes version:
Long-held assumptions about the rate of pharmacist job growth are beginning to crumble amid the uncertain health care and economic realities of our times, and yet we, as an academy, continue to perpetrate a rate of unprecedented growth that has reached alarming proportions and shows no signs of abating.(...) One need not be a statistician to recognize the looming mismatch between the number of graduates and the number of vacant positions in the not-too-distant future.
You only need to browse the discussions in the Pharmacy or Optometry sections of SDN to get a feel for what's happening now in those fields.
IMO, we are starting to see the same situation with PT schools. I went onto the APTA site and counted all existing and accredited PT schools. There are 205 at this time. Assuming an average of 50 students in each graduating class, then 10,250 newly-minted PTs enter the workforce each year. On top of that, PT schools are sprouting up like mushrooms after a heavy rain. In my state alone (NC), I know of 2 new DPT programs opening up either this year or the next: High Point Univ., and Campbell Univ. I am sure the same happens in many other states. True, there will be PTs who retire, but injecting 10,000 new grads into the profession each year will inevitably cause a shift in the supply and demand curves.
So what are the implications?
- If you are considering going into this field, be mindful of the college costs, and keep in mind your future salary. There is a current discussion on this very board about a person who blithely applied to PT school without thinking of either. The wake-up was, shall I say, brutal.
- If you are interviewing, bring this up as a concern with the faculty members whom you talk to. Since every other applicant spouts the same threadbare items from Vision 2020, the interviewer will certainly remember you as someone who put in a little more thought when you considered the profession.
- If you are a current student -like me-, there is not a whole lot we can do... In for a penny, in for a pound. I'd seriously consider doing a residency to gain additional skills and differentiate myself from the other 10,000 grads.
Plan for the worst, and hope for the best.