The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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I know everyone is always talking about Obamacare but I think he will be remembered for the North America energy revolution. That would be his legacy.
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BMBiology said:
I know everyone is always talking about Obamacare but I think he will be remembered for the North America energy revolution. That would be his legacy.
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LOL. You must be kidding. Obamacare will be repealed in part or in whole in a few years when everyone realizes how bad it was. He will be remembered for further bankrupting the country and trampling as many Constitutional Amendments as possible. Watch how many more scandals are actually reported on now that his administration went after the AP. They are no longer treating him as a celebrity.
 
Unchained said:
LOL. You must be kidding. Obamacare will be repealed in part or in whole in a few years when everyone realizes how bad it was. He will be remembered for further bankrupting the country and trampling as many Constitutional Amendments as possible. Watch how many more scandals are actually reported on now that his administration went after the AP. They are no longer treating him as a celebrity.
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Meh, I doubt it. He's certainly no worse than Bush, Clinton, or Reagan in the "trample constitution" department. Hell, Bush II made up a reason to go to war with a sovereign country because he felt like it, literally bankrupting the country by not raising taxes to do it. Not so sure it gets worse than that. Obama is just the poor schmuck whose had his had his hands tied with bipartisan pissing matches o do anything real. If the Affordable Care Act fails, it will be because it had no public option on the exchanges and because there were no price controls on pharma.
 
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what is your plan on bonds? keep buying? dump them?
 
BMBiology said:
what is your plan on bonds? keep buying? dump them?
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Unless the economy booms from the standpoint of the average American, demand will stay depressed. Less people spending less money lends to deflation. Bonds will be crap on the returns side, but should stay safe havens. No idea where the stock market is going long term.
 
Investing in bonds must consider the inflationary risk. With current high prices and low yield, buying bonds now run the risk of both (1) selling at a loss if price drops, and (2) loss to an increase in inflation if hold until maturity. You can short sell bonds. However unless you can anticipate when, its risky in its own way.

If you don't think the current bond market is the new norm, and it will eventually trend towards historical average, then holding off on bond purchases for now and rebalance once the market get closer to the historical average would make sense.
 
How much do you guys put in a taxable account per year? I have maxed out my 401 k and ROTH IRA. I don't want my hard cold cash just sitting there.
 
BMBiology said:
How much do you guys put in a taxable account per year? I have maxed out my 401 k and ROTH IRA. I don't want my hard cold cash just sitting there.
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I just match. Which I wish I didn't given where the stock market has gone...but I've been taking the guaranteed 6.5% on my student loans. Down to under $60,000 from over $200,000 a few years ago. Going to continue because I don't see where enough aggregate demand to grow the economy is coming from. The world is depressed and nobody wants to spend anywhere. Now I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop...watch the Dow get to 20,000 now...
 
That is great with the student loans. We are hurting but companies are seriously making a good profit, often at cost of their employees.

Don't you work at CVS? They offer employee stock discount I believe. I think CVS is in a strong position with its retail and mail order. They are going to do well in 2014 with Obamacare
 
BMBiology said:
That is great with the student loans. We are hurting but companies are seriously making a good profit, often at cost of their employees.

Don't you work at CVS? They offer employee stock discount I believe. I think CVS is in a strong position with its retail and mail order. They are going to do well in 2014 with Obamacare
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They do, and I partake.
 
BMBiology said:
How much do you guys put in a taxable account per year? I have maxed out my 401 k and ROTH IRA. I don't want my hard cold cash just sitting there.
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Open a taxable account and start contributing to emerging markets/international, better P/E. Historically, low P/E correlates to higher EXPECTED return. At this point, I am more leery of putting more money into US coz I know my expected return will be smaller than investing into emerging/international.
 
Yup, I recently put a sizable amount in emerging markets.
 
Is it just me or guys in general are not as ambitious as a generation ago? I hang out with a relatively successful crowd and we think we are more ambitious than most people but even then, we are like whatever.

That being said, I am hoping the investment I make today will pay off 20 years from now. I am still hoping to be able to retire at 55.
 
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BMBiology said:
Is it just me or guys in general are not as ambitious as a generation ago? I hang out with a relatively successful crowd and we think we are more ambitious than most people but even then, we are like whatever.

That being said, I am hoping the investment I make today will pay off 20 years from now. I am still hoping to be able to retire at 55.
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A generation ago? It was a lot easier to be ambitious in the 90s. The economy actually worked.
 
I actually think it is easier today to make it big. With social media, you can start a business with minimal cost. The question now is how good is your idea.

But, it is not just about starting a business, it is also about finding opportunities and the best time to do that is when the economy is down.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
A generation ago? It was a lot easier to be ambitious in the 90s. The economy actually worked.
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I was about to say the same thing. The main thing lacking today that was in the 90's was the correlation between effort and reward. When the economy is weak, and when efforts produces little or no reward, it tends to erode ambition and change focus towards near term security (aka just get a job and keep it).
 
What is going on with FB stock? I know there is some issue with its phone. It is dropping like a rock.
 
BMBiology said:
What is going on with FB stock? I know there is some issue with its phone. It is dropping like a rock.
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I certainly hope Facebook is finally dying. As is common with most things, everyone is 4-5 years behind me. I stopped using Facebook in like 2008 or 2009. It should be time soon for its popularity as something "cool" to go away.

I think everyone is finally just getting sick of the overt narcissism required to maintain a Facebook page and patience to maintain everyone else's narcissism. That's what made me stop using it. It's really only useful for stalkers and idiots that think people care about their mundane lives these days.
 
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Look at FNMA... 500%+ up due to housing recovery. One of my coworker is so happy because she has been holding this at pennies/share.
 
BMBiology said:
How much do you guys put in a taxable account per year? I have maxed out my 401 k and ROTH IRA. I don't want my hard cold cash just sitting there.
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Put in:

  • Mutual Funds
  • Pick your own stocks
  • Real Estate.
  • Bonds

There is no end to what you can invest it in. Screw the tax liability. Grow your money....
 
Unchained said:
It's a pump and dump. They just hope they can get out before Bernanke pulls the plug.
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They are not going to pull the plug. At some point they will gradually back off the free money. Not all at once......
 
I dropped another 10k into VEMAX yesterday XD. When one of my allocation in a free fall like this, I am smiling and buying more! I hope market drops more. I am glad DOW touched 15,000, will wait for it to fall to 14,500 before I buy more.
 
Emerging market has been dropping like a rock.
 
Gold vs. the U.S. dollar. If the economy keeps on improving, even slowly then the dollar will win.
 
Emerging markets down -2%. China PMI <50. I will be buying VEMAX again when it hits the next support level at $31.50, and a major support at $29.
 
BMBiology said:
Fed is tapering off QE. Everything is down except the U.S dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100829518
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They must think aggregate demand is coming back. A total demand vacuum is why QE hasn't resulted in inflation. If they can dial back as the economy heats up, Bernanke might come out of this smelling like roses. Somehow. I still have no idea where demand will come from to support a boom cycle. All that's happened in the last 6 years is seeing the rich get richer and the middle class lose real purchasing power.
 
Rite aid is down almost 8%.
 
Meh, I'm not worried. It's a temporary correction. Some overreaction to the Feds, but at the same time, everyone knows that all that has to end eventually and it's the right thing to do.

People have been taking money out of bonds for a while now, with bond yield/interest rate kept down by the Feds. Now with ending of QE, you can expect a reverse of money flow from stock back into bonds as the bond yield rise.

Same for emerging market. It's doing poorly partly because US economy is showing stronger signs of life. With investment being a finite amount, more money flowing into the safer and reviving US economy will naturally come at expense of the emergent markets.

A little more on China. While more western-savy Xi jingping is probably not going to make many major changes to the long term plan of shift from export to domestic consumption, china right now is like a whack-a-mole, with real estate experiencing inflation while manufacturing sector in a deflation. Hard to fix opposing issues at the same time. In the long run, manufacturing is not the China's future, but in the short run, that's a lot of jobs. China will experience a lower growth rate as leadership has to balance the two, and just due to principle of large numbers. So if I wouldn't hold China to be more than 10% of your portfolio in the short term until there are clearer indications.
 
China is a weird ass place I would never trust with my money. No offense to you personally.

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Watch Tesla jump up after tonight's unveiling of their 45 second swappable battery. They might have finally done it. Given the world a proof of concept that will pave the way to a post-fossil fuel world of automobiles.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
China is a weird ass place I would never trust with my money. No offense to you personally.

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Watch Tesla jump up after tonight's unveiling of their 45 second swappable battery. They might have finally done it. Given the world a proof of concept that will pave the way to a post-fossil fuel world of automobiles.
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no offence taken. I don't even understand it fully myself, even as my relatives tries to explain it to me. It has changed so much since I left as a child, although I hope I still have a better understanding than most.

Just to show how weird thing got, my cousin and his wife is in the US to circumvent the 1 child policy. For him, it is cheaper to pay a quarter mil cash to have a baby here (as a US citizen) than pay the fine for having a second child in China (fine = 3x annual income). US is turning a blind eye to wealth folks basically buying US citizenship. From a logical stand point, I can see why it benefits both countries. So apparently, the motto for both US and China is in money we trust.
 
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WVUPharm2007 said:
Watch Tesla jump up after tonight's unveiling of their 45 second swappable battery. They might have finally done it. Given the world a proof of concept that will pave the way to a post-fossil fuel world of automobiles.
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Their current power-up station model can be overhauled in a lot of ways to make the spread faster. But that's a good thing for the company- a lot of options to make lots of money still. Hopefully it works out.
 
Bonds is getting killed 10 year treasuries at 2.54%. My portfolio allocation to CA intermediate municipal bonds suffer heavy losses. Mortgage rates shot up the past 3 days... 4.4% for a 30 year fixed it's crazy. I locked in in 3.125% for 30 years back in 1/28/13. It now costs more to get a 15 year fixed vs 30 years than it was 5 months ago. My house value per Zillow already went up 100k in 6 months, it's BS lol. A house down the road was sold for 475k in December 2012 and now it is in escrow again for 678k (investor flips house).

General rule of thumb applies, for every 1% increase in rates, you will need to see the value of the house drop 10% in order to afford the same payment. Rate increases 1% AND value increases 10% due to end of QE and inventory squeeze, this translates to 20% pricier house now than it was 6 months ago, it will be very difficult to afford a house in metro CA for an average Joe.
 
I wonder what is going to happen to the housing market 6 months from now.
 
Momus said:
Bonds is getting killed 10 year treasuries at 2.54%.
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I started to get out of bonds last year which has been a positive move so far. However, my emerging market fund is getting killed.

I was actually planning to buy more emerging market fund last week but I had problems with my account. I lucked out since the fund lost another 5% last week.
 
Why has REIT done so poorly lately? I thought real estate is booming
 
BMBiology said:
Why has REIT done so poorly lately? I thought real estate is booming
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Interest rate goes up, REIT goes down. Raising interest rates impact their bottom line and its price, kinda like bonds.
 
Today they found that housing prices up 11.5%, consumer confidence at 5 year high...I assume this sequester **** is going to show itself eventually....right?
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
Today they found that housing prices up 11.5%, consumer confidence at 5 year high...I assume this sequester **** is going to show itself eventually....right?
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Well, some rebound is good, but let's see if it becomes bubbly again. Kind of sad that we are missing out on the chance to buy up investment/rental properties on the cheap during the worst of it. If those who graduated in 2006, with less student loans and 2-3% rates, paid off by 2008-10ish could have really capitalized on this opportunity.
 
xiphoid2010 said:
Well, some rebound is good, but let's see if it becomes bubbly again. Kind of sad that we are missing out on the chance to buy up investment/rental properties on the cheap during the worst of it. If those who graduated in 2006, with less student loans and 2-3% rates, paid off by 2008-10ish could have really capitalized on this opportunity.
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Did I mention my house is under contract? :smuggrin: We bought in 2009 and are walking away with a substantial amount
 
xiphoid2010 said:
Well, some rebound is good, but let's see if it becomes bubbly again. Kind of sad that we are missing out on the chance to buy up investment/rental properties on the cheap during the worst of it. If those who graduated in 2006, with less student loans and 2-3% rates, paid off by 2008-10ish could have really capitalized on this opportunity.
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I have friends who graduated in 2004-2006 and made the mistake of buying a house at its peak. Very unfortunate.
 
joetrisman said:
Did I mention my house is under contract? :smuggrin: We bought in 2009 and are walking away with a substantial amount
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I kinda remember you mentioning somewhere that you sold it for $30k profit, right. Did you look into maybe rent it out instead? If you bought it cheap, it would be easier to generate a net positive cash flow on it.
 
xiphoid2010 said:
I kinda remember you mentioning somewhere that you sold it for $30k profit, right. Did you look into maybe rent it out instead? If you bought it cheap, it would be easier to generate a net positive cash flow on it.
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Yeah, but we really want out. Too much going on with residency and my wife traveling for her job to keep up with renters. After I am settled and get my student loans paid off, I plan to invest in rentals though.
 
Apple stocks are now <400$ a share
 
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