The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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SClENCE said:
I personally don't understand how only 0.6% of fund managers can "beat" the market... mathematically speaking you should be able to randomly choose stocks from the S&P 500 and have close to a 50% chance of beating the S&P 500 index over a given time span. Unless mean % gained and the median % gained of the S&P 500 are significantly different numbers which I don't believe is typical.

I only started buying stocks in February and have already yielded an 80% gain. To be fair I did gamble on some earnings dates and traded some futures but still the market movements seems quite predictable and basic in many cases.
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BMBiology said:
You have to take cost into consideration.

Sometimes it is just random luck. It is like you going to a casino and betting $100 on red and winning. But the longer you play and the more you play, it is harder to come out on top.

This year I started to buy individual stocks. My first two stocks were big winners. I am up 40% on these two stocks. I then purchased 8 other stocks. About even in 7 stocks. 7% down on 1 stock. So right now I am up 8-9% in my 10 stock portfolio not including dividends, which is still better than the S&P 500.

Who knows what is going to happen. If one of my big winners tanked then I am about even.
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Cool story brah... Everyone is a genius in a bull market. I can have my cat picks 100 stocks randomly using its paw and I will make money too LOL.
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Momus said:
Cool story brah... Everyone is a genius in a bull market. I can have my cat picks 100 stocks randomly using its paw and I will make money too LOL.
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0.6% of fund managers "beat" the market according the the previous post. In a bull market 10/10 fund managers can make money while at the same time under-preforming. We are taking about performance RELATIVE to the market... not profit/loss...

I can tell who isn't a genius...

That being said I made most of my money trading futures anyways.
 
Momus said:
Cool story brah... Everyone is a genius in a bull market. I can have my cat picks 100 stocks randomly using its paw and I will make money too LOL.
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It doesn't matter if it is a black or white cat, as long as it beats the S&P 500....LOL
 
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SClENCE said:
0.6% of fund managers "beat" the market according the the previous post. In a bull market 10/10 fund managers can make money while at the same time under-preforming. We are taking about performance RELATIVE to the market... not profit/loss...

I can tell who isn't a genius...

That being said I made most of my money trading futures anyways.
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"Most money" HAHAHA... very funny...

0.6% Beat the market... when? This year, genius!? Oh I picked 20 stock and it went up 30% last year, I must be a genius!!! I can repeat this for the next 40 years. I am the clairvoyant. I am sure you beat the market 20 years straight already. Please repeat that the next 20 years! WOOOT WOOT! I will see you on front page Forbes magazine smiling next to the Oprah and the Queen, pharmacy student.
 
Momus said:
"Most money" HAHAHA... very funny...

0.6% Beat the market... when? This year, genius!? Oh I picked 20 stock and it went up 30% last year, I must be a genius!!! I can repeat this for the next 40 years. I am the clairvoyant. I am sure you beat the market 20 years straight already. Please repeat that the next 20 years! WOOOT WOOT! I will see you on front page Forbes magazine smiling next to the Oprah and the Queen, pharmacy student.
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Stop spewing your ignorance. In reference to my performance I was not speculating, I was sating a fact. I did not claim that I could/would beat the market in the long term nor was I implying it. The intention of my original post was to inquire how only 0.6% of fund managers can beat the market when mathematically speaking picking random stocks from the index should yield a better result. Perhaps stock performance across a given index is significantly skewed or perhaps the low yields reflect the fees that are taken for fund management. Nobody here is claiming that they can/will beat the market consistently.... and I personally am only trying to rationalize the poor performance by fund managers.
 
Momus said:
I can have my cat picks 100 stocks randomly using its paw
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billion dollar youtube channel idea!

(people love watching cats doing anything on youtube) + (people think they can individual stock trade and make money) = gazillions of hits!!!
 
Someone is not planning to pay back what he owes. It is time to turn on the money printing machine.
 
BMBiology said:
Someone is not planning to pay back what he owes. It is time to turn on the money printing machine.
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If he defaults, then that will hurt the creditors too in the short term which no one wants to deal with, hence the perpetual lifeline.
 
stoichiometrist said:
If he defaults, then that will hurt the creditors too in the short term which no one wants to deal with, hence the perpetual lifeline.
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The money is already gone. There is no point in dumping good money into that money pit any longer.
 
stoichiometrist said:
If he defaults, then that will hurt the creditors too in the short term which no one wants to deal with, hence the perpetual lifeline.
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The money is already gone. There is no point in dumping good money into that money pit any longer.
 
BMBiology said:
The money is already gone. There is no point in dumping good money into that money pit any longer.
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I'm REALLY curious how Grexit would play out. The possibilities are almost endless. Technical default on June 30...but what if the referendum passes and all the creditor demands are met? Kind of like when the U.S. went into technical default a few years ago.

Or the Greeks can just say screw you, no more austerity...but then you get France saying that they CAN still stay in the Euro zone.

It's all sorts of crazy. Time to get the popcorn...I'm not even touching my European investments at this point.
 
Initially there will be some chaos of course. The problem with a Grexit is mostly psychological but after these 7 years, investors are somewhat immunize to this crap. It is not Greece that investors are worried about. It is Spain, Italy. If they elect a socialist party and demand their debt to be forgiven as well, then there will be a huge problem for Europe and for us. Let Greece leave and contain the fallout. Show Spain and Italy that they need to stick with their austerity or face a similar faith.
 
No one wants to deal with blood in the streets of Greece, possibly followed by Spain and Italy if Greece defaults. The easy short-term solution is to place the tax burden on German citizens.
 
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lol...my company's credit union offers a 2% checking account as long as I direct deposit, make 25 transactions/month, and use electronic statements

unfortunately since April, that 2% is better than the 0.0002% I've been getting in my 3-fund boglehead lazy portfolio...
 
So Greece banks will be closed for a week (at least). China stocks have been dropping like a rock even as its fed cuts interest rate. I can't wait until the stock market opens on Monday.
 
Oh and PR is broke and can't pay back its debt.
 
My investments are sitting 100% in inverse leveraged futures atm I think Monday will be fun
 
For a moment I had this desire to sell a couple of my stocks on Monday.

Is it time to take some profit off the table and hide the cash under your bed?
 
BMBiology said:
For a moment I had this desire to sell a couple of my stocks on Monday.

Is it time to take some profit off the table and hide the cash under your bed?
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I will be buying your shares, got $30-40k to waste :-D
 
Days like today, I am glad I am still cash heavy.
 
Greece has little to no impact on the material market in the US. I'd call this a buying opportunity... the time to sell would have been last week.
 
I slept in, went for a run, and checked my WSJ app exactly once today.
 
Greece deal rejected (again). Greece will likely default. Who would have thought right? We were all under the assumption something will be worked out.
 
BMBiology said:
Greece deal rejected (again). Greece will likely default. Who would have thought right? We were all under the assumption something will be worked out.
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There's a good WSJ post about the 4 scenarios that can happen (can't find the link right now, on my phone).

I think they will hoard Euros and pay out in IOU's with a potential drachma to come in later. Dual-currency system for the short term, continued Euro zone political membership.

But I might as well flip a coin...or 8 sided dice.
 
How did you guys do for the first half of the year?

My main 401(k) did just so so, 3.8%. It consists of S&P 500 index 52%, extended market index 28%, international stock index 20%.

Roth IRA and another 401(k) did a tiny bit better, around 5.5%. They have some individual stock, sector and broad index mutual funds.

ESPP/stock options did pretty well, around 11%.

In times like this with mediocre performance, maybe one should consider paying off debt instead? That's actually what I've been doing with my mortgage and it will be done in the next month or so. That's my dream to be debt free with no mortgage or anything, and with a big income that I can do anything I want with, rather than making payments to some bank. :)
 
My 401k is at - 2.28%, roth IRA is at 9.09%, and my brokerage account is at - 0.88%. Stock market sucks this year.
 
I think my 401 k is up 7.5% this year. I made some right moves like moving my large caps to mid caps. I also have a sizable shares of international stocks and that did well.

My Roth IRA has been flat to negative. Emerging market has not been doing well and will continue not do well. High risk and high rewards. Long term investment

Taxable account is up about 8% this year. Walgreens and Amazon skyrocketed but got rocked by Chipotle.
 
It is coming down to the wire! Greece may just have voted no and therefore, rejected austerity
 
If Greece leaves the Euro and grows, would that encourages Spain and Italy to also default on their loans and to also leave the Euro?
 
I'm 30% cash in my brokerage account right now. Think I should go all in or at least drop to 10% tomorrow?
 
BenJammin said:
I'm 30% cash in my brokerage account right now. Think I should go all in or at least drop to 10% tomorrow?
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Too soon. If things get worse, it is going to drop much more.

Look at China also. Lets see if the government is able to stabilize the stock market.
 
What is going on with China stock market?
 
All my stocks are down except for Chipotle! Get your burrito!
 
O yea! Dropped 11k total to emerging market and small cap. Please keep going down til I am broke, buying in trenches <3! $25k left to spend.
 
My Roth dropped 30% in a week. Luckily a) my roth is only worth 3.5k and b) I'm still at a profit relative to my contribution
 
Walgreens stocks jumped by 4% after their earning reports. I guess their plan to close 400 stores is paying off.

Chipotle stock also jumped. I am getting my money back! Remember to get a burrito today.
 
WBA hit $90 today, so I sold one of my lots that is eligible for 15% long-term capital gains tax. Then I started wondering, do you guys in California pay another 9.3% state income tax on top of that? What about capital gains on a house?

Anyway, I'm using the money to pay off my mortgage. I'm done :). 33 years old, and I'll probably think about semi-retirement if things get too stressful in pharmacy.
 
pezdispenser said:
WBA hit $90 today, so I sold one of my lots that is eligible for 15% long-term capital gains tax. Then I started wondering, do you guys in California pay another 9.3% state income tax on top of that? What about capital gains on a house?

Anyway, I'm using the money to pay off my mortgage. I'm done :). 33 years old, and I'll probably think about semi-retirement if things get too stressful in pharmacy.
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That is great that you have paid off your mortgage! Student loans, too?

Yeah we have to pay state income tax on capital gains. It is taxed as regular tax but since it is a state tax, we can write it off as a tax deduction.
 
BMBiology said:
That is great that you have paid off your mortgage! Student loans, too?
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Yup. $350k house, paid off. $50k in student loans were paid off in 2011. My monthly expenses are now almost nothing, so there's going to be a few thousand dollars in disposable income every month!
 
BMBiology said:
What is going on with China stock market?
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I think it had its best day ever...haha. I realized most of my China stocks in VINEX aren't traded on the mainland and weren't even really affected in the first place.

Buy and hold continues!
 
pezdispenser said:
Yup. $350k house, paid off. $50k in student loans were paid off in 2011. My monthly expenses are now almost nothing, so there's going to be a few thousand dollars in disposable income every month!
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That is awesome! I am done with my student loans. Just the mortgage.

It is still hard to really take it easy in California even if I had paid off the mortgage. Houses here are 600 k to 1 m in a good neighborhood. Property tax is 1.2%. If your house is 700 k then that is 8,400 a year in property tax. It is adjusted for inflation every year. Of course cost of living here is also high. High state tax and sale tax. It really adds up.
 
Thank you Wag pharmacists. Stock is at an all time high. More than 50% return in investment.
 
Momus said:
O yea! Dropped 11k total to emerging market and small cap. Please keep going down til I am broke, buying in trenches <3! $25k left to spend.
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I dont know about this. My roth ira money is in emerging market but all of this speculation and buying on margin is going back and bite them.
 
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