The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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if you post about gold, he will come = * /
 
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$ONXX $120/share buyout rumor by $AMGN ... whhaaatttt
 
China's GDP will be released tomorrow! If it is bad, who is going to buy more emerging market funds?
 
PharmEcon said:
Lol, the Treasury is enjoying the cheapest borrowing it has ever had access to. I'd hardly say it's is a "bailout bubble".

Disclaimer: I did not watch the hour long video, I just read the description and decided against it because I am pretty sure I can guess what it says.
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The short of it is this: The government bails out banks/corporations/industries, but who will bail out the governments? Low interest rates cause the next bubble because if the interest rate doesn't remain low, the debt becomes impossible to pay.
 
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Ackj said:
The short of it is this: The government bails out banks/corporations/industries, but who will bail out the governments? Low interest rates cause the next bubble because if the interest rate doesn't remain low, the debt becomes impossible to pay.
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and to buy gold.
 
Momus said:
Open a taxable account and start contributing to emerging markets/international, better P/E. Historically, low P/E correlates to higher EXPECTED return. At this point, I am more leery of putting more money into US coz I know my expected return will be smaller than investing into emerging/international.
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I have been wondering why the chinese are buying U.S. real estate market. Do they know something?
 
Ackj said:
The short of it is this: The government bails out banks/corporations/industries, but who will bail out the governments? Low interest rates cause the next bubble because if the interest rate doesn't remain low, the debt becomes impossible to pay.
Click to expand...

No one needs to bail out the US Federal government anytime soon because it is no where near that point. Nothing indicates it. In fact, the way the market treats US debt, it is one of the last institutions on the planet that would need a bailout judging by how the market sees the debt.

Right now is actually the perfect time to spend on things like infrastructure that in the long run will be an investment with a positive ROI. Unfortunately, Congress is stuck playing silly political games.

The bailouts were done as a short-term measure- no one wants a long-term culture of bailouts if that is what is being implied and even Capitol Hill is trying to do something about it- whether or not what they are doing is good or bad is another story, but the point is no one wants a bailout culture except those getting bailed out. And that constant search for stability can be enough to keep us going in that regard.

One thing though- you said the low interest rates will cause the next bubble. Are you implying that Congress passes its spending bills based on the going rate of Treasuries? If only it were that effective/smart.
 
BMBiology said:
and to buy gold.
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After a few minutes of the video playing, I had to double check who posted it because it really seemed like a grumps story.
PharmEcon said:
No one needs to bail out the US Federal government anytime soon because it is no where near that point. Nothing indicates it. In fact, the way the market treats US debt, it is one of the last institutions on the planet that would need a bailout judging by how the market sees the debt.

Right now is actually the perfect time to spend on things like infrastructure that in the long run will be an investment with a positive ROI. Unfortunately, Congress is stuck playing silly political games.

The bailouts were done as a short-term measure- no one wants a long-term culture of bailouts if that is what is being implied and even Capitol Hill is trying to do something about it- whether or not what they are doing is good or bad is another story, but the point is no one wants a bailout culture except those getting bailed out. And that constant search for stability can be enough to keep us going in that regard.

One thing though- you said the low interest rates will cause the next bubble. Are you implying that Congress passes its spending bills based on the going rate of Treasuries? If only it were that effective/smart.
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I'm not implying anything, I'm just giving a 2-line synopsis of the video. They definitely did make the implication that bailouts are the new global craze and there will be bailouts to back bailouts, which is of course impossible to manage.
 
Ackj said:
I'm not implying anything, I'm just giving a 2-line synopsis of the video. They definitely did make the implication that bailouts are the new global craze and there will be bailouts to back bailouts, which is of course impossible to manage.
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It's a tough problem with bailouts, especially when it is the financial sector since that can spread to pretty much every other sector. Despite the bailouts though, one can reasonably argue that the Treasury is stronger than it has ever been. I think the whole "we are sinking in debt" and "hyperinflation is here!" message that is repeated ad nauseum in certain crowds is terribly misguided and more politically based than statistically or economically.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
PharmEcon reads a lot of Krugman.
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Nah... I prefer monetary stimulus (and really right now it isn't stimulus so much as keeping up with the inflation target) to fiscal but I realize that we need some fiscal spending at one point or another for things like infrastructure, so I'd rather do it on the cheap and then cut back on other things when rates are worse and we are out of recovery.
 
PharmEcon said:
Nah... I prefer monetary stimulus (and really right now it isn't stimulus so much as keeping up with the inflation target) to fiscal but I realize that we need some fiscal spending at one point or another for things like infrastructure, so I'd rather do it on the cheap and then cut back on other things when rates are worse and we are out of recovery.
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That's pretty much what Krugman has been saying since 2008. "Zero Lower Bound" comes out of his mouth about as much as the word "the".
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
That's pretty much what Krugman has been saying since 2008. "Zero Lower Bound" comes out of his mouth about as much as the word "the".
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How is that the same as what I'm saying if I prefer monetary solutions right now? I don't think the Fed is out of or limited with its options and I am not a huge proponent in the liquidity trap/ZLB that Krugman and Keynesians talk about. I am much more of the monetarist camp in that regard- I think there is plenty the Fed can and should do. I think a NGDP target would be a good idea that can have a strong effect, for example. Krugman would prefer more fiscal routes than I would.
 
PharmEcon said:
How is that the same as what I'm saying if I prefer monetary solutions right now? I don't think the Fed is out of or limited with its options and I am not a huge proponent in the liquidity trap/ZLB that Krugman and Keynesians talk about. I am much more of the monetarist camp in that regard- I think there is plenty the Fed can and should do. I think a NGDP target would be a good idea, for example. Krugman would prefer more fiscal routes than I would.
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Ok, I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying that interest rates can't help anything further, thus real stimulus is needed due to a lack of demand, etc.
 
I rolled over a CD today, and told the banker that the current interest rates are "anemic". She chuckled and said, "That's a diplomatic way to describe it."

They're great for people buying houses, etc. but not so great for the rest of us. Maybe this is why the credit union I use offers high-interest loans for weddings, vacations, and quinceaneras (my city has a sizable Hispanic population; they would probably offer them for bar and bat mitzvahs if we had a lot of Jews).
 
Turn the sound down when you have CNBC on. Stop reading the WSJ, Fortune, Barrons and the other Wall Street mouthpieces. Until you stop, you will be forever doomed into buying the top of every serial bubble.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/chinese-real-estate-buying-china-housing-california-purchases/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal+%28Dr.+Housing+Bubble+-+How+I+learned+to+Love+SoCal%29

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/renting-revolution-renting-rate-us-california-homeownership-rate-rental-rate/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal+%28Dr.+Housing+Bubble+-+How+I+learned+to+Love+SoCal%29

Fabian Calvo: Real Estate Pump and Dump Coming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=wbrVR0uL8Zo

Fabian Calvo-Real Estate, Dollar and Bond Collapse Simultaneously .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xHQkvEk0xGg
 
We have passed the 6 month mark. What is your best and worst move so far?

Best- sold off all my bonds
Worst- didn't max out my 401 k until June; put my roth ira money into emerging market.
 
BMBiology said:
We have passed the 6 month mark. What is your best and worst move so far?

Best- sold off all my bonds
Worst- didn't max out my 401 k until June; put my roth ira money into emerging market.
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besides the usual diversified 401k and roth.

best: paid my student loan down to $30K from $90K. Bought a house summer of last year.
worst: didn't have any money left over to invest. Might end up regretting not buying couple investment properties last year.
 
xiphoid2010 said:
besides the usual diversified 401k and roth.

best: paid my student loan down to $30K from $90K. Bought a house summer of last year.
worst: didn't have any money left over to invest. Might end up regretting not buying couple investment properties last year.
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This...
 
Temperature101 said:
Not in south FL... People are bidding on houses now like it was in 2005....
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This is when you don't want to touch it... I am kind of partial investing in property when everyone wants a piece. However, I can see the prices will slowly climb due to better trend in employment (going lower every year). When people are employed, they buy houses.
 
Glad I got that CVS stock and paid off a ton of student loan debt. If I keep at the current pace, I'll have it only few more years and its done.

Once I get that student loan debt paid off, I'm doing two things as a nontraditional investment. I'm buying the 2016 Tesla that's going to be coming out that will be in the $35,000 range and keeping it until it dies...and then I'm going to put solar panels all over my roof. I got an estimate done and my roof can generate about 1300kwhr of power a month...more than I currently use. The break even point for me would be about 7 years. After that I would get geothermal heating and cooling. Then I will heat, cool, and power my house for free and drive around for free. In fact, I could sell the excess power back to the grid and make a little money while I'm at it. That's 3-4 years ahead. But I'm excited about it.

Regret not having the money to buy more stock during the crash. Born just a taaaaaaad too late.
 
haha you are thrifty and good with your money WVU, hats off to you.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
Regret not having the money to buy more stock during the crash. Born just a taaaaaaad too late.
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Do that during the next crash. Trust me, there will be one.

Last night, I was watching a PBS show I had Tivo'd about the 1980s farm crisis, and 6-month CDs were earning (hang onto your seats) over 7%! Longer CDs were 7 1/2 to 9%. Nice! But do remember that mortgages were as high as 20% during this time. I was a young adult during the 1980s recession, and things were MUCH worse than they are now. Take my word for it.
 
So I'm just starting this 401k thing on my HR website. But I don't really know what the heck I'm doing. First page is "what % of your paycheck?" and there's a box for % pre tax and % after tax. Next page you pick how you want to spread the funds, entering a % into each field. There's a bunch of thinks to choose from such as: "retirement 2020" "retirement 2030" etc, then Bonds, S&P 500, US Large Cap Value Equity, US Large Cap growth, Small-Mid cap value Equity, Small-Mid Cap Index, Global Equity, International Equity.

I'd like to read up and figure out what I'm doing, but would like to just have something on there for now to get started.
 
Assuming you are young, I would put 25% international, 30% small caps 25% large and 20% mid caps. No bonds.

Look for vanguard funds.

Target retirement is fine but make sure you check the fee. It is usually higher and honestly, you don't need them to do it for you.

Check: http://www.bogleheads.org/
 
I have a feeling the "international" market might have a slowdown. BRIC and China don't have me as stoked as they used to. I'm up in small/mid caps with some large caps...5% bonds...thats it...
 
BMBiology said:
Assuming you are young, I would put 25% international, 30% small caps 25% large and 20% mid caps. No bonds.

Look for vanguard funds.

Target retirement is fine but make sure you check the fee. It is usually higher and honestly, you don't need them to do it for you.

Check: http://www.bogleheads.org/
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Mine has vanguard target funds, dirt cheap 0.18 expense ratio. Pretty good performance too, out performed S&P500 the last 5 years I looked at.
 
Yeah vanguard gives you the best deal!
 
xiphoid2010 said:
Mine has vanguard target funds, dirt cheap 0.18 expense ratio. Pretty good performance too, out performed S&P500 the last 5 years I looked at.
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my vanguard funds have been doing remarkably well this year :thumbup:
 
Anybody have thoughts on investing in any of the major/upcoming 3-D printing companies (XONE, DDD, SSYS, ONVO) out there? ONVO is particularly intriguing to me as far as biotech applications are concerned. They all seem pretty largely overvalued at the moment, but I can't help but think I'd be missing out once the technology really takes off.
 
homeslice said:
Anybody have thoughts on investing in any of the major/upcoming 3-D printing companies (XONE, DDD, SSYS, ONVO) out there? ONVO is particularly intriguing to me as far as biotech applications are concerned. They all seem pretty largely overvalued at the moment, but I can't help but think I'd be missing out once the technology really takes off.
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I consider myself a technical swing trader and normally don't put money on shares under $15 but I bought some ONVO because i really like its price action. Also made some $$$ on SSYS and loss some on DDD in the past. Mind you I'm just an amateur so take what I said with a grain of salt.

Sent from my AT100 using Tapatalk
 
Bought $4k emerging and $4k US Total market on Syria "fear". Felt good, hope for more weakness after fed meeting in Sept. I am guessing we will break down lower to DOW 14,500, which is good, but hope for a bit lower than that. I have some spare cash to invest.
 
Does anyone know anything about the housing market in Vegas? It seems like housing is not that bad of an investment... I bought an investment property in Sept 2011 in South FL for 150k and spent about15k to fix it and now this property worth 230k... I wanna to buy another one but they are getting expensive in South FL... I want to know if they still worth peanuts in Vegas...
 
Temperature101 said:
Does anyone know anything about the housing market in Vegas? It seems like housing is not that bad of an investment... I bought an investment property in Sept 2011 in South FL for 150k and spent about15k to fix it and now this property worth 230k... I wanna to buy another one but they are getting expensive in South FL... I want to know if they still worth peanuts in Vegas...
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Buying a house at this point is just plain irrational. It's too high right now. I call it BUBBLE 2.0. Wait for a few years, you will see a crash coming. Then buy.
 
How do you all do your investing? Through online trading sites? I'm new to all of this but would like to learn about different aspects of investment. I started a Roth IRA when I was 18 and contribute 50 dollars a month to it. im 21 now so its only been a few years of contribution. I also contribute to my 401k at work and they match up to six percent so I take advantage of that. But I am also a first year pharm student so I don't really have that much money to play with now. But I would like to learn for the future. If any of you know of any good sources it would be appriciated. Thanks!
 
Jibby321 said:
How do you all do your investing? Through online trading sites? I'm new to all of this but would like to learn about different aspects of investment. I started a Roth IRA when I was 18 and contribute 50 dollars a month to it. im 21 now so its only been a few years of contribution. I also contribute to my 401k at work and they match up to six percent so I take advantage of that. But I am also a first year pharm student so I don't really have that much money to play with now. But I would like to learn for the future. If any of you know of any good sources it would be appriciated. Thanks!
Click to expand...

401 k is the way to go, but be very careful here. 401K will get burnt if stock market crashes (which is very likely from now to next year). I maxed out my 401K since 2009. But recently, I decided to put in only 3% of my salary because I think we are due for a crash.

I also have a stock trading account with ETrade. I do mostly speculations but it's very risky. I lost almost 70K during my first 2-3 year daytrading but slowly got them all back. I am now mainly investing oil and gold stocks.
 
No one can predict when the market will crash. It will one day but if you are young, it can actually be a good thing because you will be buying stocks for a cheap price. Don't touch your 401 k or Roth IRA. Those are for your retirement.

I always have cash on the side so when the market goes down, I would be in the position to buy. This website has pretty good information on investing and planning for the future: http://www.bogleheads.org/

If you have some time, read a book or two about investing.
 
Awesome. Thanks for the advice. Just gotta get some extra cash which I don't see happening with in the next 4 years. Lol
 
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