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- Apr 7, 2011
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4987706/
Good N (66K) but it's an administrative, not clinical, data set and Fear-Avoidance/Catastrophizing don't have ICD-9/10 codes. The mean age for the groups was similar (range: 44.7–45.3 years) though statistically different (p<.0001).
"Four distinct groups of patients were identified and validated. One group (53.4%) of patients recovered immediately. One third of patients (31.7%) may appear to recover over 6 months, but maintain a 37–48% likelihood of receiving care for low back pain in every subsequent quarter, implying frequent relapse. Two remaining groups of patients each maintain very high probabilities of receiving care in every quarter (65–78% and 84–90%), predominantly utilizing therapeutic services and pain medication, respectively. Probabilistic grouping relative to alternatives was very high (89.6–99.3%). Grouping was not related to demographic or clinical characteristics."
The top red line, 7.4% received chronic opioids, at age 45 for back pain. Can we predict who they
are at inception?
Good N (66K) but it's an administrative, not clinical, data set and Fear-Avoidance/Catastrophizing don't have ICD-9/10 codes. The mean age for the groups was similar (range: 44.7–45.3 years) though statistically different (p<.0001).
"Four distinct groups of patients were identified and validated. One group (53.4%) of patients recovered immediately. One third of patients (31.7%) may appear to recover over 6 months, but maintain a 37–48% likelihood of receiving care for low back pain in every subsequent quarter, implying frequent relapse. Two remaining groups of patients each maintain very high probabilities of receiving care in every quarter (65–78% and 84–90%), predominantly utilizing therapeutic services and pain medication, respectively. Probabilistic grouping relative to alternatives was very high (89.6–99.3%). Grouping was not related to demographic or clinical characteristics."
The top red line, 7.4% received chronic opioids, at age 45 for back pain. Can we predict who they
are at inception?
