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I did some number crunching based on AAMC's data:
https://members.aamc.org/eweb/Dynam..._prd_key=41FEE42C-6D95-4E8D-AC8A-1173945902A4
In 2013 there were 37,000 active EM physicians as per table 1.4 in the above PDF. I'm not sure whether this means EM boarded docs or simply docs working in the ED regardless of training, and I'm also not sure what if any impact this distinction would have on the following calculations.
Per that same PDF, there were 1763 EM PGY1 spots in 2013, compared to 1620 in 2010 and ~1320 in 2005. Let's be optimistic and assume the growth in spots levels out at an average of ~1800 for the foreseeable future.
Assuming an average career length of 30 years, the EM workforce at 1800/year would reach a steady state size of 54,000 compared to today's 37,000. Of course, it's very unlikely residency spots will stop at 1800, which is why I used 20k as a nice round number for the net increase in my thread title.
Is this sustainable? Obviously nobody can answer that question, but what is the "gut feel" from you attendings out in the workforce already? I'm a bit concerned because I feel like EM is particularly vulnerable to oversaturation, for the following reasons:
*There are only so many shifts to go around, and EM docs don't create their own demand the way surgeons, derms, etc do.
*EM docs don't own patients. They get paid a lot only because they are in demand and they are scarce. Remove the scarcity and you remove the high compensation as well. A surgeon can thrive by distinguishing himself and drawing in patients even in saturated areas where other less established surgeons struggle. An EM doc's fate is tied inextricably to the calculus of bodies vs shifts, which is entirely beyond his individual control.
* The possibility of a death spiral: as supply rises, hourly rates fall. Unlike surgeons operating 12+hrs on OR days, most EM docs are not maxed out and so take on more shifts to compensate for the lower per shift income to maintain lifestyle. As a result, supply rises still more, hourly rates fall more, more shifts to compensate, and so on.
I realize I am being neurotic, but that's just my personality to be honest, and since I haven't yet pulled the trigger on the $300k tuition and 7+ years of my life, I see this as doing due diligence on various specialties I am interested in. EM is one of those specialties, and one of the things I'd like to be able to do is have the flexibility to work blocks of highly paid contract/locums work with extended breaks to enjoy that income. Easy to do with lots of shifts chasing few bodies, not so easy in the inverse situation.
Any thoughts appreciated!
https://members.aamc.org/eweb/Dynam..._prd_key=41FEE42C-6D95-4E8D-AC8A-1173945902A4
In 2013 there were 37,000 active EM physicians as per table 1.4 in the above PDF. I'm not sure whether this means EM boarded docs or simply docs working in the ED regardless of training, and I'm also not sure what if any impact this distinction would have on the following calculations.
Per that same PDF, there were 1763 EM PGY1 spots in 2013, compared to 1620 in 2010 and ~1320 in 2005. Let's be optimistic and assume the growth in spots levels out at an average of ~1800 for the foreseeable future.
Assuming an average career length of 30 years, the EM workforce at 1800/year would reach a steady state size of 54,000 compared to today's 37,000. Of course, it's very unlikely residency spots will stop at 1800, which is why I used 20k as a nice round number for the net increase in my thread title.
Is this sustainable? Obviously nobody can answer that question, but what is the "gut feel" from you attendings out in the workforce already? I'm a bit concerned because I feel like EM is particularly vulnerable to oversaturation, for the following reasons:
*There are only so many shifts to go around, and EM docs don't create their own demand the way surgeons, derms, etc do.
*EM docs don't own patients. They get paid a lot only because they are in demand and they are scarce. Remove the scarcity and you remove the high compensation as well. A surgeon can thrive by distinguishing himself and drawing in patients even in saturated areas where other less established surgeons struggle. An EM doc's fate is tied inextricably to the calculus of bodies vs shifts, which is entirely beyond his individual control.
* The possibility of a death spiral: as supply rises, hourly rates fall. Unlike surgeons operating 12+hrs on OR days, most EM docs are not maxed out and so take on more shifts to compensate for the lower per shift income to maintain lifestyle. As a result, supply rises still more, hourly rates fall more, more shifts to compensate, and so on.
I realize I am being neurotic, but that's just my personality to be honest, and since I haven't yet pulled the trigger on the $300k tuition and 7+ years of my life, I see this as doing due diligence on various specialties I am interested in. EM is one of those specialties, and one of the things I'd like to be able to do is have the flexibility to work blocks of highly paid contract/locums work with extended breaks to enjoy that income. Easy to do with lots of shifts chasing few bodies, not so easy in the inverse situation.
Any thoughts appreciated!
