Under what circumstances should a pre-med matriculate in the Caribbean?

[Officer Farva]

My mom's nephrologist went to Ross. My mom loves him. To be honest, I was shocked when I saw that he went to school there.

My primary care doctor went there as well! Very chill guy. My theory is that a lot of more high strung types might be getting into the US schools. I have relatives who went to school in their home country who practice in the states, and they always complain that even the lowliest US grad talks down to them, although they went to the top school in their country.

Cultural competence my *** lol

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Or DO Students who hate the idea of a carib graduate having the MD status while they walk around as DO's

At least that DO has a residency and sees patients

















PS no DO feels inferior to a Carib MD in fact as long as you don't kill patients pretty much no one cares what you have

 

[prehealthadvisor55]

I've recently been invited to take an "advisor trip" to Ross to learn more about their offerings. I'll be sure to report back after the sand is washed away & daiquiri-induced headaches have subsided.

 

[Mad Jack]

When they can't get in stateside and have enough extra cash lying around that they won't have any loans, and even then only if they are comfortable with the idea of never practicing in the United States.

 

[ChrisMack390]

Do any of the Carib schools give out scholarships?

Then again if you were going to get a huge scholarship you'd probably get into a US school.

 

[NotWayneBrady]

How can you be okay with this? It's a scam. They admit students they know won't make it, take hundreds of thousands of dollars from them, then kick them out. It's not that they can't handle living on an island, they can't handle med school, and the med school knew that when it admitted them.

Call it an idiot tax.

Unfortunate, yep. Ethically reprehensible, yep. Is it going to stop? As long as there are people naive and idealistic enough to consider it as a feasible alternative to a US MD, not likely.

 

[Lannister]

Call it an idiot tax.

Unfortunate, yep. Ethically reprehensible, yep. Is it going to stop? As long as there are people naive and idealistic enough to consider it as a feasible alternative to a US MD, not likely.

Yeah, I mean I feel a little bit bad, but at the same time people need to realize that there are no shortcuts in life.

 

[Premedgirl27]

So what about the University of Queensland School of Medicine? They are always emailing my post-bacc program encouraging students to apply. Is this a similar deal to the carribean schools where you get a substandard education and little opportunity for residency? Or is it more legit? I just think it's odd that they are so focused on recruiting US students...

 

[deleted731525]

Not going to lie, but I know SGU/Ross grads who matched better than US grads.

The reality is if you survive attrition without red flags from those schools(so called big 4) you will probably match somewhere. Matching better than US grads with a similar profile? Not likely. You also have to consider though that many people dont give a rat's ass about prestige or attending an academic program and will be content with a community program if it lets them be a physician in the end. Its always ideal to go to school in the US, but like with many things SDN can be hysterical on this topic. For those who are seriously considering this route, theArgus has a good thread in the Caribbean forum with all the relevant statistics and imo a balanced interpretation. Its also worth noting that even he(a Ross graduate) says its best to do everything you can to stay in the US.

 

[deleted731525]

So what about the University of Queensland School of Medicine? They are always emailing my post-bacc program encouraging students to apply. Is this a similar deal to the carribean schools where you get a substandard education and little opportunity for residency? Or is it more legit? I just think it's odd that they are so focused on recruiting US students...

Its definitely more legit. They have an affiliated health system in the US for the clinical years and match rates over 90% with most specialties represented. Its also expensive AF.

 

[terra330]

So what about the University of Queensland School of Medicine? They are always emailing my post-bacc program encouraging students to apply. Is this a similar deal to the carribean schools where you get a substandard education and little opportunity for residency? Or is it more legit? I just think it's odd that they are so focused on recruiting US students...

I haven't done a whole lot of research into it, but being affiliated with a US health system (Ochsner) might add some legitimacy. Their residency match rate seems decent, and they claim their attrition rate is only 2%

 

[Premedgirl27]

Its definitely more legit. They have an affiliated health system in the US for the clinical years and match rates over 90% with most specialties represented. Its also expensive AF.

Interesting.... Ok. I wasn't sure whether or not to believe them since the Carribean schools claim high match rates as well. Thanks

 

[NotWayneBrady]

Interesting.... Ok. I wasn't sure whether or not to believe them since the Carribean schools claim high match rates as well. Thanks

 

[DrPatriot]

Never. You're welcome.

Sent from my VS985 4G using SDN mobile app

 

[Mansamusa]

So what about the University of Queensland School of Medicine? They are always emailing my post-bacc program encouraging students to apply. Is this a similar deal to the carribean schools where you get a substandard education and little opportunity for residency? Or is it more legit? I just think it's odd that they are so focused on recruiting US students...

You definitely won't get a substandard education- UQ is a great school and trains Aussie physicians, whereas Caribs are only out for $. Butttt, going to UQ will still give you a lot of trouble with matching. As will Irish/British schools

 

[laricb]

Bruh you can't even read.

(More specifically, write or utilize grammar.)

Typical when they don't have a good answer out come the grammar responses

 

[TBV]

Typical when they don't have a good answer out come the grammar responses

Lmao I didn't feel the need to dignify your dribble with a good answer.

 

[laricb]

Lmao I didn't feel the need to dignify your dribble with a good answer.[/
Talk to me when you get wet behind your ears rookie

Talk to me when you get wet behind your ears rookie

 

[moisne]

When you meet these criteria:

1. You don't care about debt or your parents have loads of money.
2. You are ok with high chance of failing out... And changing careers.
3. You are ok with residency programs being biased against you.
4. You are ok with primary care (Bc specialities are just that much more harder).

Or
5. You have an abysmal numbers and you are desperate to get into a Med school despite everything points to the fact that your capabilities may or may now even allow you to be successful through the first 2 years (+step).

 

[wagonwheel23]

After being active on SDN for about a year, I feel stuck in a perpetual time loop. Does anyone use the search function anymore?!?

 

[p0gono]

I think you're onto something here...

If your family connections are strong enough to make you a LOCK for a residency program, and you have significant red flag that keeps you out of US MD or DO, and you have strong enough academic credentials to have been admitted except for that red flag --

In that particular case, it probably makes sense.

But if their family connex are THAT strong for a residency, couldn't they also reasonably use those connex to get into a USA MD or DO program?

 

[GrapesofRath]

But if their family connex are THAT strong for a residency, couldn't they also reasonably use those connex to get into a USA MD or DO program?

I agree with this. If we are truthfully answering the question, the only scenario I could ever even begin to consider something like this is for someone with a top academic mind/ability but who has some blemish on their record so bad(ie college expulsion, all kinds of IAs) that it is a hindrance for them to a) do any kind of professional school at all b) yet it would not bar them from being licensed in the US.

And this is only for people who are very well off financially amongst other factors. And even then, I would still at best be lukewarm to the idea of going off shore. There are just too many examples of top caribbean students who dominate Step 1 and still cant come out from their with a residency.

 

[deleted731525]

I agree with this. If we are truthfully answering the question, the only scenario I could ever even begin to consider something like this is for someone with a top academic mind/ability but who has some blemish on their record so bad(ie college expulsion, all kinds of IAs) that it is a hindrance for them to a) do any kind of professional school at all b) yet it would not bar them from being licensed in the US.

And this is only for people who are very well off financially amongst other factors. And even then, I would still at best be lukewarm to the idea of going off shore. There are just too many examples of top caribbean students who dominate Step 1 and still cant come out from their with a residency.

What examples?(genuinely curious). The one example I see posted all over is a guy from SGU who got a 260 and shot for ortho. Even then he still matched IM, if i recall correctly.

 

[the argus]

Caribbean has high attrition and low percentage residency placement. We are talking about 25 to 30% chance of becoming a doctor as compared to 98% from a US allo school. So that's not zero but it's not even as good as putting all your tuition money down on a hand at a casino. Which all of us would agree you should never do. Yes there are great doctors who have come out of offshore schools and some who have become quite rich but they are exceptions to the rule -- you won't be the exception, you will be the rule.

So that's why everyone is saying there really isn't a great reason to go this route other than as a last ditch Hail Mary chance of being a doctor after you have tried multiple times to fix your credentials for US. If that's you, good luck, but go into it knowing odds are you are going to come up short. If your eyes are open and you have money to burn, go for it.

75% after 50% attrition. And that's assuming the 75% isn't fudged, including "dead end" prelims and the like.

Your numbers are just patently false when talking about the big Caribbean schools, of which the vast majority of Caribbean students matriculate through. As someone who graduated from Ross in 2014 and followed my class numbers throughout, I can tell you attrition is ~25%, not 50%. And the match rate is 85-90%, a very small percentage of which are dead-end prelims. The final numbers come out to ~70% of those that start will eventually match, not 25-30%.

You can look at my posting history, I'm not some cheerleader for Caribbean schools. I always say people should do 2-3 cycles of US admissions before considering the Caribbean. I'm also very upfront about the realities of the residency match process (high number of applications, specialty limitations, etc). But it drives me absolutely crazy when people on this forum just make stuff up like you are doing here. The realities of Caribbean medical education are poor enough, there's no need for you to just completely fabricate numbers.

 

[the argus]

A decade or more ago, using the Caribbean mtedical schools was a reasonable path to a reasonable residency and thus a reasonable practice in medicine. However, as the number of US MD and DO graduates increases but the number of residency slots remains essentially stagnant, there are diminishing opportunities for graduates of the Caribbean medical schools to secure any placement (not just match) into a residency.

This is also just factually incorrect. The increase in USMD/DO matriculation numbers has basically just equalled the yearly increase in residency positions over the past 10 years, and the number of IMGs matching has been stable for the past 10 years. You can look at this document,
https://www.acgme.org/acgmeweb/tabi...GraduateMedicalEducationDataResourceBook.aspx
go to page 6 in the most recent handbook. The number of IMGs entering pipeline positions has stayed completely stable over the past 10 years with only minor yearly variations.

 

[GrapesofRath]

Your numbers are just patently false when talking about the big Caribbean schools, of which the vast majority of Caribbean students matriculate through. As someone who graduated from Ross in 2014 and followed my class numbers throughout, I can tell you attrition is ~25%, not 50%. And the match rate is 85-90%, a very small percentage of which are dead-end prelims. The final numbers come out to ~70% of those that start will eventually match, not 25-30%.

You can look at my posting history, I'm not some cheerleader for Caribbean schools. I always say people should do 2-3 cycles of US admissions before considering the Caribbean. I'm also very upfront about the realities of the residency match process (high number of applications, specialty limitations, etc). But it drives me absolutely crazy when people on this forum just make stuff up like you are doing here. The realities of Caribbean medical education are poor enough, there's no need for you to just completely fabricate numbers.

There are many Caribbean schools where the attrition rate is closer to 50% not 25%. Just because the class you were in was fortunate to have a lower attrition number does not mean that it will hold true for others. And this is especially true in coming years with the upcoming merger amongst other things. It's not so much about minor variations the past 10 years, it's about how things will look in coming years.

The thing is whether the rate is 70 vs 30%(and again the 70% is a very generous estimate especially considering the direction things are headed) it doesnt change the relevant point. Both odds are terrible and major major risks. What you said about people needing to realize the obstacles a Caribbean grad will face is the main take away point from all of this. That doesnt change regardless of whether 60% of your class that started from day 1 got a residency or 70% or 50% or 30%. Focus on the big picture which is not arguing about 70 vs 30%. Nobody should be basing a decision of this magnitude based off 30 vs 50 vs 70%. A large number of those who made it through the Caribbean could have gotten into a DO school had they simply been willing to take the time and effort to improve their app.

 

[Med Ed]

Your numbers are just patently false when talking about the big Caribbean schools, of which the vast majority of Caribbean students matriculate through. As someone who graduated from Ross in 2014 and followed my class numbers throughout, I can tell you attrition is ~25%, not 50%. And the match rate is 85-90%, a very small percentage of which are dead-end prelims. The final numbers come out to ~70% of those that start will eventually match, not 25-30%.

According to the NRMP match data (page 15) the overall match rate last cycle for US citizens from international medical schools was 53.1%.

Put another way, for every Ross with an "85-90%" match rate there must be a counterbalancing group of US-IMG applicants with a 16-21% match rate. That should not give anyone a warm, fuzzy feeling.

As for the last 10 years, you are correct, things have been fairly static. Between the all-in policy, state and private support for GME slots, and the opening of programs in new teaching hospitals (which gets around the cap), the match rates have managed to keep pace. The problem is the near future. If you check out the list of medical schools in the US there are over 20 schools with charter classes entering 2012 or later. Several more are advancing through the accreditation pipeline at the LCME. While the wave has not quite hit yet, the overall trend is unmistakable.

 

[Sailor Senshi Dermystify]

Life of a Carib student medical career in four frames.

 

[the argus]

According to the NRMP match data (page 15) the overall match rate last cycle for US citizens from international medical schools was 53.1%.

Put another way, for every Ross with an "85-90%" match rate there must be a counterbalancing group of US-IMG applicants with a 16-21% match rate. That should not give anyone a warm, fuzzy feeling.

Except this is a complete misinterpretation of what that data actually represents, because you haven't taken the time to actually read and analyze that document. I've talked about this multiple times in previous threads, I'll paste it below if you care to read it.

People like to say the match rate for US-IMGs is 53%, because that's what is listed in the NRMP reports. This number does not refer to first-time match rate (i.e. recent graduates applying to residency for the first time), which is what people are commonly referring to when saying "match rate." This is exemplified by the fact that the NRMP data reports actually breaks up US allopathic applicants into US seniors vs. US grad.

If you look at the ECFMG report from 2013, you will see that the average time since graduation for the unmatched cohort of US-IMGs is 5.7 years.

When quoting that 53% you are not actually describing US-IMGs in the match for the first time, you are describing all US-IMGs in the match regardless of how many times they have applied. The NRMP data reports don't differentiate US-IMG senior vs US-IMG grad. There is without a doubt a percentage (~10%) of US-IMGs that manage to graduate from school, but are poor applicants (semester failures, step failures, etc) and are not able to ever match. This small yearly cohort continues to apply every year, builds up over time (hence the 5.7 years above), and drastically skews the US-IMG "match rate".

If you want to include those reapplicants when describing true US-IMG "match rates", then you also have to include all the applicants from those previous years that did successfully match. If you don't do this (like the NRMP data reports), you are way oversampling the poor applicant/unmatched cohort. The NRMP does actually recognize this because they split US allopathic applicants into those 2 groups, they just don't do it for IMGs for some reason.

People try to say the US MD vs US-IMG match rates are 94% vs 53%, which is in fact comparing 2 completely different data sets. The yearly match rates for NRMP defined US grads (i.e. non-matched applicants from previous years) are actually 40-50%, showing that poor applicants, regardless of where they come from, do not do very well in the match.

The first-time match rate for all US-IMGs is ~75%, and from the big 3 caribbean medical schools is between 80-90%. Granted this does not take into account students lost to attrition before graduation, which is no doubt substantial.

But when people say caribbean grads have a ~50% chance of matching, they are grossly misinterpreting the data.

As for the last 10 years, you are correct, things have been fairly static. Between the all-in policy, state and private support for GME slots, and the opening of programs in new teaching hospitals (which gets around the cap), the match rates have managed to keep pace. The problem is the near future. If you check out the list of medical schools in the US there are over 20 schools with charter classes entering 2012 or later. Several more are advancing through the accreditation pipeline at the LCME. While the wave has not quite hit yet, the overall trend is unmistakable.

And the problem with this argument is people have been making it for the past 10-20 years, and somehow it has just never actually happened. Remember all that doom and gloom about the 2014/2015 matches, how did that turn out? Look, I have no stake in this argument anymore. I'm out of school and in residency. Every single caribbean school could close tomorrow and it wouldn't change my life one bit.

You're talking about trends, and the problem is there is no trend showing that the number of IMGs matching is significantly changing. If that's what the data eventually shows, I'll be on the front lines spreading the word.

 

[Law2Doc]

Except this is a complete misinterpretation of what that data actually represents, because you haven't taken the time to actually read and analyze that document. I've talked about this multiple times in previous threads, I'll paste it below if you care to read it.


And the problem with this argument is people have been making it for the past 10-20 years, and somehow it has just never actually happened. Remember all that doom and gloom about the 2014/2015 matches, how did that turn out? Look, I have no stake in this argument anymore. I'm out of school and in residency. Every single caribbean school could close tomorrow and it wouldn't change my life one bit.

You're talking about trends, and the problem is there is no trend showing that the number of IMGs matching is significantly changing. If that's what the data eventually shows, I'll be on the front lines spreading the word.

Part of the problem in seeing this trend is "match" data is not all the data. US enrollment has continued to go up faster than residency slots, and US match rates have stayed at 93-94%, which we know has to represent more people, yet non-US numbers have not changed much. So how can this be? (A) the end of pre match and (B) the move to SOAP. These used to be other avenues that offshore places placed people in spades, but not included in "match" percentages, but today not so much. For now this is where these losses sit, not accounted for in "match" data. But as US ranks continue to increase I am betting the losses expand to show up in the match data itself.

It's really just math -- nobody denies that the number of US allo students has been increasing faster than residency slots, or that US seniors fill 93-94% of the match, each and every year, for decades. So it's only a matter of time before offshore places can stop hiding the losses.

 

[mcloaf]

My primary care doctor went there as well! Very chill guy. My theory is that a lot of more high strung types might be getting into the US schools. I have relatives who went to school in their home country who practice in the states, and they always complain that even the lowliest US grad talks down to them, although they went to the top school in their country.

Cultural competence my *** lol

I feel like your desire to play devil's advocate has you approaching full troll at this point.

 

[Med Ed]

Except this is a complete misinterpretation of what that data actually represents, because you haven't taken the time to actually read and analyze that document. I've talked about this multiple times in previous threads, I'll paste it below if you care to read it.

Thank you, but this (re)post does not contradict what I wrote, which, if your match rate from Ross is accurate, stands as an unassailable arithmetic fact.

You are correct, though, there are many things we cannot see in the data. We cannot how many of the "previous graduates of US allopathic medical schools cohort" are individuals who failed to match/SOAP versus how many are attempting to change specialty. We cannot see why 27.5% of US-IMG's who registered for the match never made it into the final statistics because they withdrew or did not submit a rank order list.

To your point, we also have no good way of testing your hypothesis that the overall Caribbean match rate is dragged down by a cohort of repeat offenders who get interviews but fail to land anything on the deck. I have no doubt this is a factor, but we cannot quantitate it with the available information. All we can say is that 53.1% of US-IMG's who submitted a rank-order list in 2015 ended up matching, compared to 43.6% for previous US grads, 49.4% for FMG's, 79.3% for osteopathic applicants, and 93.9% for US seniors.

And the problem with this argument is people have been making it for the past 10-20 years, and somehow it has just never actually happened. Remember all that doom and gloom about the 2014/2015 matches, how did that turn out? Look, I have no stake in this argument anymore. I'm out of school and in residency. Every single caribbean school could close tomorrow and it wouldn't change my life one bit.

You're talking about trends, and the problem is there is no trend showing that the number of IMGs matching is significantly changing. If that's what the data eventually shows, I'll be on the front lines spreading the word.

Things have changed and will continue to do so. For example, thirty years ago, after the dust settled, the match rate for US-IMGs was lower than now (38.6%), but the 800 unmatched individuals were looking at a pool of 2,628 unfilled positions. Those were decent odds in the scramble. In 2015 the 2,354 unmatched US-IMG's were looking at 1,306 unfilled positions. The number of unfilled positions per unmatched US-IMG's has therefore changed from 3.29 to 0.55. D'oh.

I admit, it is hypothetically possible that enough public and private entities will grow GME slots at a rate that can absorb the impending crush of domestic medical school graduates. If this happens it will be because the crisis is averted, not because the crisis is illusory.

 

[the argus]

Part of the problem in seeing this trend is "match" data is not all the data. US enrollment has continued to go up faster than residency slots, and US match rates have stayed at 93-94%, which we know has to represent more people, yet non-US numbers have not changed much. So how can this be? (A) the end of pre match and (B) the move to SOAP. These used to be other avenues that offshore places placed people in spades, but not included in "match" percentages, but today not so much. For now this is where these losses sit, not accounted for in "match" data. But as US ranks continue to increase I am betting the losses expand to show up in the match data itself.

It's really just math -- nobody denies that the number of US allo students has been increasing faster than residency slots, or that US seniors fill 93-94% of the match, each and every year, for decades. So it's only a matter of time before offshore places can stop hiding the losses.

You're right it really is just math, but the problem is you don't seem capable of doing the math correctly. Yes, I do deny that the number of US allo students has been increasing faster than residency slots. You know who else denies this, the data. Lots of other people deny this as well, including anyone who has ever actually looked at the data. The link I posted before (which I'll post again because you obviously didn't read it based on this post you just made), isn't showing the NRMP vs SOAP vs prematch data, it is showing total ACGME residency positions and who is filling them. It isn't showing losses because these losses don't exist.
https://www.acgme.org/acgmeweb/tabi...GraduateMedicalEducationDataResourceBook.aspx
again, this link is for total ACGME residency position data, it has nothing to do with the NRMP, SOAP, etc. You can either choose to accept the data and stop posting incorrect statements or not, it doesn't really matter to me.

 

[the argus]

http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1475200

Please see linked JAMA article

Come on man, you can't be serious. Please actually read the "article." This isn't even an article, it's an editorial, and everyone has completely disregarded it for years now because of how inaccurate it is. I mean, all you have to do is read the first sentence to know that it's completely worthless.

"By 2015, the number of graduates from US medical schools is anticipated to surpass the number of positions in residency programs"

In 2015, >6300 IMGs matched through the NRMP.

Please read this NEJM piece from 12/2015 where the authors actually looked at the data before coming to conclusions.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1511707?query=TOC&&

 

[deleted731525]

The Caribbean topic on SDN is the perfect example of group think.

 

[Med Ed]

You're right it really is just math, but the problem is you don't seem capable of doing the math correctly. Yes, I do deny that the number of US allo students has been increasing faster than residency slots. You know who else denies this, the data. Lots of other people deny this as well, including anyone who has ever actually looked at the data. The link I posted before (which I'll post again because you obviously didn't read it based on this post you just made), isn't showing the NRMP vs SOAP vs prematch data, it is showing total ACGME residency positions and who is filling them. It isn't showing losses because these losses don't exist.
https://www.acgme.org/acgmeweb/tabi...GraduateMedicalEducationDataResourceBook.aspx
again, this link is for total ACGME residency position data, it has nothing to do with the NRMP, SOAP, etc. You can either choose to accept the data and stop posting incorrect statements or not, it doesn't really matter to me.

Perhaps we should frame this another way. Let's look at the number of new MD schools founded over the past few decades. Do you notice anything about the distribution?

1982: (1) Mercer
1983: 0
1984: 0
1985: 0
1986: 0
1987: 0
1988: 0
1989: 0
1990: 0
1991: 0
1992: 0
1993: 0
1994: 0
1995: 0
1996: 0
1997: 0
1998: 0
1999: 0
2000: (1) FSU
2001: 0
2002: (1) Cleveland Clinic - Lerner
2003: 0
2004: 0
2005: 0
2006: (2) FIU, UCF
2007: 0
2008: (3) UC - Riverside, Hofstra, Commonwealth
2009: (1) Cooper
2010: (3) FAU, Quinnipiac, Virginia Tech
2011: (1) William Beaumont
2012: (1) Western Michigan
2013: (3) Central Michigan, UT-Austin (Dell), UT-Rio Grande
2015: (4): California - Northstate, Roseman, UNLV, Washington State

 

[the argus]

To your point, we also have no good way of testing your hypothesis that the overall Caribbean match rate is dragged down by a cohort of repeat offenders who get interviews but fail to land anything on the deck. I have no doubt this is a factor, but we cannot quantitate it with the available information. All we can say is that 53.1% of US-IMG's who submitted a rank-order list in 2015 ended up matching, compared to 43.6% for previous US grads, 49.4% for FMG's, 79.3% for osteopathic applicants, and 93.9% for US seniors..

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...tional-Medical-Graduates-Revised.PDF-File.pdf
We can quantitate it with the data. Please look at the stats for the matched vs unmatched US-IMGs in this report. The unmatched cohort are a fundamentally different group of applicants. The average time since graduation for the matched US-IMGs is 1.7 years, for unmatched US-IMGs it is 5.7 years. These unmatched people aren't fresh graduates, they've been out of school on average for ~6 years.

Your comment about "all we can say..." is absolutely wrong. That's not all we can say. We can look deeper into the available data and see that the "first-time" match rate (i.e. recent grads attempting to match for the first time), which is what people generally mean when they say match rate, is significantly higher than 53% for US-IMGs. The 53% is way oversampling the yearly unmatched cohort which continues to apply year after year.

 

[the argus]

Perhaps we should frame this another way. Let's look at the number of new MD schools founded over the past few decades. Do you notice anything about the distribution?

1982: (1) Mercer
1983: 0
1984: 0
1985: 0
1986: 0
1987: 0
1988: 0
1989: 0
1990: 0
1991: 0
1992: 0
1993: 0
1994: 0
1995: 0
1996: 0
1997: 0
1998: 0
1999: 0
2000: (1) FSU
2001: 0
2002: (2) Cleveland Clinic - Lerner
2003: 0
2004: 0
2005: 0
2006: (2) FIU, UCF
2007: 0
2008: (3) UC - Riverside, Hofstra, Commonwealth
2009: (1) Copper
2010: (3) FAU, Quinnipiac, Virginia Tech
2011: (1) William Beaumont
2012: (1) Western Michigan
2013: (3) Central Michigan, UT-Austin (Dell), UT-Rio Grande
2015: (4): California - Northstate, Roseman, UNLV, Washington State

Dude, >6300 IMGs matched in 2015. All these new schools will add hundreds of new US grads, not thousands. Unless California-Northstate had an incoming class of 3,000 students, these new schools will not significantly impact the number of positions for IMGs in the next 5 years. Please read this NEJM piece from 12/2015 where the authors actually looked at the data.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1511707?query=TOC&&

I'll quote for you the take-away message,

"Given AAMC projections through 2021–2022 regarding newly opened M.D. and D.O. medical schools, schools that have been approved to open, and class expansions in current schools, and assuming a continuation of the 2.4% annual growth in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024, the number of graduates in the latter year would be slightly over 29,500. Under this likely scenario, there would still be about 4500 more available positions than U.S. graduates in 2023–2024."

 

[w0rldw3y3d]

Never. You should never go to a Carribean med school.

 

[Med Ed]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uplo...tional-Medical-Graduates-Revised.PDF-File.pdf
We can quantitate it with the data. Please look at the stats for the matched vs unmatched US-IMGs in this report. The unmatched cohort are a fundamentally different group of applicants. The average time since graduation for the matched US-IMGs is 1.7 years, for unmatched US-IMGs it is 5.7 years. These unmatched people aren't fresh graduates, they've been out of school on average for ~6 years.

Your comment about "all we can say..." is absolutely wrong. That's not all we can say. We can look deeper into the available data and see that the "first-time" match rate (i.e. recent grads attempting to match for the first time), which is what people generally mean when they say match rate, is significantly higher than 53% for US-IMGs. The 53% is way oversampling the yearly unmatched cohort which continues to apply year after year.

This does not really get at my question, so let me restate it. Of the 47% who did not match (and the 27.5% who did withdrew or did not submit a rank list) how many were:

- First-time applicants from a big 4
- First-time applicants from a non-big 4
- Reapplicants from a big 4
- Reapplicants from a non-big 4

Saying the match rate is "significantly higher than 53%" does not satisfy.

 

[Med Ed]

Dude, >6300 IMGs matched in 2015. All these new schools will add hundreds of new US grads, not thousands.

True, but the point being argued is that the number of domestic grads is outpacing the growth of residency positions, and I'm showing you why this assertion is being made.

Important note: I did not include the growth of osteopathic medical schools. They got your thousands right there...

 

[the argus]

This does not really get at my question, so let me restate it. Of the 47% who did not match (and the 27.5% who did withdrew or did not submit a rank list) how many were:

- First-time applicants from a big 4
- First-time applicants from a non-big 4
- Reapplicants from a big 4
- Reapplicants from a non-big 4

Saying the match rate is "significantly higher than 53%" does not satisfy.

Of course we don't know the numbers for each school. But you can easily surmise that the number of reapplicants is very high as the average time since graduation of the unmatched cohort is 5.7 years. Unless people are graduating and waiting half a decade to apply for the first time, its pretty safe to say they are reapplicants. I don't understand what's so hard to grasp about the 5.7 years since graduation...

 

[the argus]

True, but the point being argued is that the number of domestic grads is outpacing the growth of residency positions, and I'm showing you why this assertion is being made.

Important note: I did not include the growth of osteopathic medical schools. They got your thousands right there...

did you read the NEJM piece? They include osteopathic medical schools. You are acting like the numbers of matriculants doesn't exist and all we have are assertions. The numbers do exist, and they show it hasn't happened yet, and over the next 8-10 years it will happen at a very slow rate.

 

[Goro]

That's what we get for trying to use logic, reason, and actual data.

The Caribbean topic on SDN is the perfect example of group think.

To reiterate a point raised by my learned colleague, if a US medical school had a number like that it would be be shut down by LCME or COCA, and sued.

To your point, we also have no good way of testing your hypothesis that the overall Caribbean match rate is dragged down by a cohort of repeat offenders who get interviews but fail to land anything on the deck. I have no doubt this is a factor, but we cannot quantitate it with the available information. All we can say is that 53.1% of US-IMG's who submitted a rank-order list in 2015 ended up matching, compared to 43.6% for previous US grads, 49.4% for FMG's, 79.3% for osteopathic applicants, and 93.9% for US seniors.

 

[Lawpy]

The Caribbean topic on SDN is the perfect example of group think.

How is it a groupthink when there are no reasons for going into Caribbean in the first place?

 

[Glandzburg]

@the argus You seem confident in your interpretation of the data. But let's say you had a child of your own who, at this moment in time, couldn't get into a US school after several cycles. Would you honestly be OK with him/her going to a Caribbean school?

 

[the argus]

That's what we get for trying to use logic, reason, and actual data.

The fact that you believe that your opinions are based in these 3 things shows just how far off the deep end you are. The actual data argues against everything you consistently post on this topic. IMG match numbers are NOT decreasing. It is NOT getting more difficult to match as an IMG. US medical school enrollment is NOT increasing at a rate significantly greater than residency spot increases.

 

[Mansamusa]

There is a lot of group think and overly negative opinions on SDN, but I think SDN's view of Caribs is good even if it exaggerates the situation.

A large portion of people considering Caribs come from backgrounds where they wouldn't know that going abroad would be bad. My mom suggested going to Carib schools as a way of saving money and it could have saved money. I would have considered it as a valid option if it weren't for sites like this. Growing up, I saw random Carib physicians, so I never would have guessed that so many people don't sucessfully become doctors out of Carib schools. It's good that people are being warned

Yeah, maybe Caribs can match somewhere, but it won't likely be in their specialty of choice or the location of their choice. Going DO would be a significantly better option. If you can't get into a DO school, you aren't really trying (you can retake courses to improve your gpa) or you have such a large red flag that maybe medicine isn't a good path to follow. With the forgiveness offered by DO admissions there really is no justifiable reason to choose the Carib. Even if 70% of Caribs students graduate and match in some IM, psych, or family med residency, why take that risk when DO schools exist?

 

[the argus]

@the argus You seem confident in your interpretation of the data. But let's say you had a child of your own who, at this moment in time, couldn't get into a US school after several cycles. Would you honestly be OK with him/her going to a Caribbean school?

There is no cut and dry answer. I was that person 5 years ago, when all these same things were being said on this website, and now I'm in a university IM program. So depending on the reasons my child couldn't get into a US school, sure I would honestly be OK with them going to the Caribbean.

People act like everyone that goes down there are exactly the same and have an equal chance of failing out, which is obviously not the case. A nontraditional with poor undergrad degree performance but good MCAT scores/premed grades (which describes me) is different than a 22 year old recent graduate who "always knew they wanted to be a doctor" but just couldn't handle the workload.

 

[Mansamusa]

There is no cut and dry answer. I was that person 5 years ago, when all these same things were being said on this website, and now I'm in a university IM program. So depending on the reasons my child couldn't get into a US school, sure I would honestly be OK with them going to the Caribbean.

People act like everyone that goes down there are exactly the same and have an equal chance of failing out, which is obviously not the case. A nontraditional with poor undergrad degree performance but good MCAT scores/premed grades (which describes me) is different than a 22 year old recent graduate who "always knew they wanted to be a doctor" but just couldn't handle the workload.

But why Carib over grade replacement and DO? If you have a good MCAT, the grade replacement might not have even been necessary