- Joined
- May 23, 2003
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I was saying that there is indeed a problem that has been getting worse, but that each year for nearly a decade the alarmism has been exaggerated (premature, and in the end I believe anti-climactic). For predictable reasons.
There is not some unending swelling of students heading towards a fixed number of training spots. We are now very close to the peak of graduate numbers. This past year saw the last of the large (~500) annual increases in graduates, with that number only realized again over the next four years combined. Further, this slowdown is accompanied by increasing numbers of int'ls leaving Australia. Some of this has to do with every int'l (there are more SE Asians here than N. Americans, mind you) having ground into them that they shouldn't be optimistic about staying here (and so they prepare earlier and more earnestly to leave), and some to do with programs like Ochsner (which will be placing an additional 100 grads annually within a few years). In other words, in terms of accommodating increases in graduates, we are past the worst of it, and the peak should occur within the next 2-3 years.
If sufficient funding continues as it did this year (and if the feds want a national allocation system, they will be pressured to continue funding), then all domestic students will get internship along with most international students who really want one. Keep in mind that with the extra spots created, there ended up being spots that were not taken (with at least three in Qld).
I would disagree with 20 people missing out being a problem (assuming they were all wanting to stay but some for reason didn't put their hand up for where there were spots remaining!). No int'l now in med school can reasonably argue that they expected an internship, while as far as oversupply of grads goes, that would be a pretty small one. It means that at worst, you need to be at the 10th percentile. In so far as there aren't quite enough spots, that would also be a *real* incentive to motivate int'ls to prepare for the possibility of having to go home (or elsewhere -- NZ and Singapore both badly want Australian grads, and they have only recently begun to tap the well).
This is not to say that trends can't change for the worse, like funding (the only persisting issue for gaining internship here); or those external to Australia, though I don't have a handle on data-driven predictions (future grad numbers vs. residency, along with recent trends in residency numbers) for the US or Canadia; or on how many grads NZ and Singapore are willing to take (certainly more than 20). Further, after internship, big problems remain. However, if the annual exaggerations over internship are anything to go by, the impending RMO problems here should not be seen as insurmountable.
There is not some unending swelling of students heading towards a fixed number of training spots. We are now very close to the peak of graduate numbers. This past year saw the last of the large (~500) annual increases in graduates, with that number only realized again over the next four years combined. Further, this slowdown is accompanied by increasing numbers of int'ls leaving Australia. Some of this has to do with every int'l (there are more SE Asians here than N. Americans, mind you) having ground into them that they shouldn't be optimistic about staying here (and so they prepare earlier and more earnestly to leave), and some to do with programs like Ochsner (which will be placing an additional 100 grads annually within a few years). In other words, in terms of accommodating increases in graduates, we are past the worst of it, and the peak should occur within the next 2-3 years.
If sufficient funding continues as it did this year (and if the feds want a national allocation system, they will be pressured to continue funding), then all domestic students will get internship along with most international students who really want one. Keep in mind that with the extra spots created, there ended up being spots that were not taken (with at least three in Qld).
I would disagree with 20 people missing out being a problem (assuming they were all wanting to stay but some for reason didn't put their hand up for where there were spots remaining!). No int'l now in med school can reasonably argue that they expected an internship, while as far as oversupply of grads goes, that would be a pretty small one. It means that at worst, you need to be at the 10th percentile. In so far as there aren't quite enough spots, that would also be a *real* incentive to motivate int'ls to prepare for the possibility of having to go home (or elsewhere -- NZ and Singapore both badly want Australian grads, and they have only recently begun to tap the well).
This is not to say that trends can't change for the worse, like funding (the only persisting issue for gaining internship here); or those external to Australia, though I don't have a handle on data-driven predictions (future grad numbers vs. residency, along with recent trends in residency numbers) for the US or Canadia; or on how many grads NZ and Singapore are willing to take (certainly more than 20). Further, after internship, big problems remain. However, if the annual exaggerations over internship are anything to go by, the impending RMO problems here should not be seen as insurmountable.
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