This post brings up some general concerns (that I believe are now quite common amongst those "in the know" about GME), and some personal concerns, from the perspective of medical student. If you notice any misconceptions, incorrect statements or unfounded interpretations, I respectfully welcome you and ask you to shine your light into the matter. I'll give a tiny personal background and then jump into the main theme. Lastly, my goal is not to make anyone anxious. It is to create awareness.
I am an MS2 at a mid-tier U.S. M.D. school. I came to medical school to become a psychiatrist. One of the reasons why I was confident this was a good decision versus getting a PhD in Psych was how seemingly uncompetitive and guaranteed psych seemed. And I value a psychiatrist's job description more. I've tried, but I can't see myself being nearly as happy long-term in another specialty or a job outside of medicine. I have done well academically and will probably have ~225-239 for Step 1, and it will be obvious based on my CV that I was strongly committed to psych starting year 1. My kryptonite has been research. The field and process of research have crushed me and put me in my place thus far. The fruitlessness of my long-term (since summer before MS2) research efforts has been disheartening. I have grown from these challenges, but it doesn't change the fact that I am not yet published in any sense. In 2014, the average research # of abstracts/posters/pubs was 3.8. I have 0. Luckily the distribution shown was bimodal (i.e. many with 0, many with 5+). Other than research, I see myself being solid in most other facets.
It's just my luck (and many other's luck) that psychiatry as a specialty is going through such a rapid and unexpected change over such a short period of time. There are so many variables involved in this I sense, that nobody is clearly saying/or can clearly say what the reality is and what its consequences are for future applicants. The only people who talk about the increased #'s of U.S. M.D.'s applying and matching and apparent increased competitiveness (whether it is due to genuine passion or Psych as 2nd choice to ROADS) as if it's a good thing are those who are already comfortably in the field. From my perspective, it has me a bit scared, and it doesn't help that "something" about getting into psychiatry is changing so fast that there isn't enough time to accurately draw conclusions and make changes in my extracurriculars, research, study habits, etc. (if necessary) before it's time for me to apply for residency. I'm concerned that from starting medical school in 2014 to finishing in 2018, that psych will go from being competitively on par with family medicine to being equal with surgery by the time I apply. It feels surreal that it may be changing in ways that would have once been thought to be unlikely by most. In 2013, saying that this evolution could happen in the next 2 years, between 2014-2016, would have drawn chuckles.
I knew psych was growing more attractive, but in TWO years, 10% more of the total psych spots are being consumed by U.S. M.D.'s. From 2014 to 2016, we have gone from 51% of total matches being U.S. M.D. to 61% of the matches being U.S. M.D. It also happens to be that, on average, the #1 hallmark of a competitiveness is the exclusivity to U.S. M.D. students. With this trend, we'll be at 71% by 2018.
I have been following the NRMP's data and SDN's forums regarding the match this year, and it seems this year once again continued this increasingly competitive trend. For example, in 2016, roughly 61.4% of all medical students matching into psychiatry were U.S. M.D. students, compared to 2015 which was 57.2%, compared to 2014, which was 51.8%. The total absolute # of U.S. M.D. Students matching in 2016 went up by ~80 compared to 2015 and is up by ~170 since 2014. The total increase and psych residency spots across the country was ~30 from 2015-2016, which does not fully account for the ~80 total increased U.S. M.D. students that matched this match. Lastly, there were ~200 more TOTAL U.S. M.D seniors involved in the whole match compared to last year, which also doesn't fully account for the ~80 total increased U.S. M.D. students matching this year. Heck, from 2014 to 2015 unmatched U.S. M.D. rates went from ~3% to ~6%. NRMP hasn't said what it was for 2016, yet. And I don't know anything about how the average individual applicant's stats (e.g., step scores and research) has been changing since 2014's Charting Outcomes.
Can we have a frank discussion about what is specifically going on? If it's not just 1 thing, then what are the multiple powerful variables at work? What does it mean? Why? Is this trend likely to plateau anytime soon or regress (like it did from 2012-2014 w/ 55% to 51% U.S. M.D. match %)? What does a medical student need to do differently in today's medical education system if they are hellbent on matching somewhere decent in psychiatry? I would love to hear perspectives from people different than myself. The facetious old adage of "Got a pulse? No red flags? Then welcome to psychiatry!" seems like a sentiment that may no longer apply.