Average MCAT scores on the rise?

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Twiigg

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Well, I can't seem to find any information on such a trend just by doing a few google searches, so I was wondering if any of you have an idea. My premed office informed me that the average MCAT scores are continually rising, especially in the last few years.

This scares me a bit... is a 35 soon to be referred to merely as "pretty good"? :scared:

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it looks like it is, i doubt they will rise that high. i dont think applicant #'s are going to keep rising, plus more schools are opening, and osteo seems to be gaining ground.
 
I think it can be quite debatable. In one hand, the rise of new schools across the nation gives the opportunity for more applicants to be admitted. With more seats available, the less competition there is to get in. However, IMO with the change from paper-based to CBT MCAT, the scores will start to rise a little before it falls. With 22 administered tests per year vs. the old 2, more people have the opportunity to take, re-take, or re-re-take the medical college admissions test. In an ideal normal distribution group, this would not matter but as this is not the case the average matriculate stats can sway either way. However, there are also other factors to consider. There is fear of socialized medicine, pressure on well-rounded applicants, new field opportunities opening in every direction, and lower physicians salaries that can change this recent trend in matriculation. I don't think it will ever go as far as 35+, but I could see it go as high as 32.5 before it drops down to say 28.5 (when we will start saying, remember the time when it was actually hard to get into med school). But I think it's good to some degree. I would not want to see medical schools becoming more like law schools.
 
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i got something else on the rise, you know what i'm saying?

that was a sexual reference.
 
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Is it even possible for MCAT scores to rise? I'm pretty sure the MCAT scores are percentile based.
The true average for MCAT takers is static. Its defined to be (about) 25 and can never really move from that.

But, the number of people taking it every year is increasing. Therefore, if you have more people taking it, you have more people scoring high. If the number of spots in medical schools is not increasing faster than the number of people taking the MCAT, the average MCAT score of *matriculants* is going to go up, just because theres more high scorers going around...
 
The true average for MCAT takers is static. Its defined to be (about) 25 and can never really move from that.

But, the number of people taking it every year is increasing. Therefore, if you have more people taking it, you have more people scoring high. If the number of spots in medical schools is not increasing faster than the number of people taking the MCAT, the average MCAT score of *matriculants* is going to go up, just because theres more high scorers going around...

this is right. The average MCAT score is not going up, but it is getting more competitive because of the increase in applicants, though with the new schools that are opening, it may help a little.
 
I think it can be quite debatable. In one hand, the rise of new schools across the nation gives the opportunity for more applicants to be admitted. With more seats available, the less competition there is to get in. However, IMO with the change from paper-based to CBT MCAT, the scores will start to rise a little before it falls. With 22 administered tests per year vs. the old 2, more people have the opportunity to take, re-take, or re-re-take the medical college admissions test. In an ideal normal distribution group, this would not matter but as this is not the case the average matriculate stats can sway either way. However, there are also other factors to consider. There is fear of socialized medicine, pressure on well-rounded applicants, new field opportunities opening in every direction, and lower physicians salaries that can change this recent trend in matriculation. I don't think it will ever go as far as 35+, but I could see it go as high as 32.5 before it drops down to say 28.5 (when we will start saying, remember the time when it was actually hard to get into med school). But I think it's good to some degree. I would not want to see medical schools becoming more like law schools.

I doubt the number of applications each year will fall in the next couple years.
The number of kids in college is increasing alot, and more kids in college means more potential medical school applicants. Also this generation of kids grew up with TV shows that glamorized the medical profession, and I don't think the effect of this on medical school applicant numbers can be understated.
 
The true average for MCAT takers is static. Its defined to be (about) 25 and can never really move from that.

But, the number of people taking it every year is increasing. Therefore, if you have more people taking it, you have more people scoring high. If the number of spots in medical schools is not increasing faster than the number of people taking the MCAT, the average MCAT score of *matriculants* is going to go up, just because theres more high scorers going around...

I think this is the key to what is important. Average mcat scores will never go up, as someone else pointed out it's percentile based. Though I agree more seats will allow more people to take the test, I think a lot of people are just taking the test more times. I've seen a bunch of people take it once, not do well, and turn around and take it again the following month. So I'm not sure if all these extra mcat dates will coincide with a great deal more applicants. Eitherway medical schools are going to be greatly increasing their admittance rates over the next ten years or so, which should even things out.
 
The true average for MCAT takers is static. Its defined to be (about) 25 and can never really move from that.

That's correct. The MCAT is scored intentionally so that a score of 25 or 26 is the average score ~= 50th percentile. The scaled scores are given out based on the percentile rank of each test taker. Thus, a 25 or 26 will always be approximately 50th percentile and a 40 will always be approximately 99.5-99.8 percentile.

But, the number of people taking it every year is increasing. Therefore, if you have more people taking it, you have more people scoring high. If the number of spots in medical schools is not increasing faster than the number of people taking the MCAT, the average MCAT score of *matriculants* is going to go up, just because theres more high scorers going around...

Exactly right again. Since more people are taking the MCAT, there are more people per each scaled score percentile rank.

You can look at the average MCAT score for matriculants over the past few years directly from the AAMC website, found here:

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007mcatgpa.htm

You can see that the average MCAT score for matriculants since 1996 is:

1996: 29.4P
1997: 29.5P
1998: 29.6P
1999: 29.7P
2000: 29.7P
2001: 29.6P
2002: 29.7P
2003: 29.6P
2004: 29.9P
2005: 30.1P
2006: 30.4P
2007: 30.8P

So yeah, MCAT scores for matriculants have been going up lately...In addition, GPAs have also gone up steadily from 3.54 in 1996 to 3.65 in 2007. :(
 
I don't think that MCAT scores are on the rise steadily. But, if what you meant is admissions' statistics are constantly on the rise for each school, that may or may not be true. It appears as though there usually is a trend where average accepted scores rise steadily for a few years then dip again and so on.

This is based on UofT's statistical data online. So I'm guilty of generalizing but I really do feel that this is the case with most schools.
 
but aren't medical schools also increasing their class sizes in a few years or planning on doing it in the next 5 years?
 
but aren't medical schools also increasing their class sizes in a few years or planning on doing it in the next 5 years?

Yes. There is a push lately to increase the number of seats in medical schools across the US. Hopefully that will help quell the ridiculousness that was (and is) the 2007 and 2008 application seasons.
 
I think it can be quite debatable. In one hand, the rise of new schools across the nation gives the opportunity for more applicants to be admitted. With more seats available, the less competition there is to get in. However, IMO with the change from paper-based to CBT MCAT, the scores will start to rise a little before it falls. With 22 administered tests per year vs. the old 2, more people have the opportunity to take, re-take, or re-re-take the medical college admissions test. In an ideal normal distribution group, this would not matter but as this is not the case the average matriculate stats can sway either way. However, there are also other factors to consider. There is fear of socialized medicine, pressure on well-rounded applicants, new field opportunities opening in every direction, and lower physicians salaries that can change this recent trend in matriculation. I don't think it will ever go as far as 35+, but I could see it go as high as 32.5 before it drops down to say 28.5 (when we will start saying, remember the time when it was actually hard to get into med school). But I think it's good to some degree. I would not want to see medical schools becoming more like law schools.

You make an excellent point about law school. It seems that I have countless friends, who cannot figure out what to so with their lives, and almost without exception, at the age of 25, they are heading off to law school. I wish a few of them would get an MBA, or try to save the Amazon rain forest, but everyone is starting law school. Weird.
 
http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007mcatgpa.htm

You can see that the average MCAT score for matriculants since 1996 is:

1996: 29.4P
1997: 29.5P
1998: 29.6P
1999: 29.7P
2000: 29.7P
2001: 29.6P
2002: 29.7P
2003: 29.6P
2004: 29.9P
2005: 30.1P
2006: 30.4P
2007: 30.8P

So yeah, MCAT scores for matriculants have been going up lately...In addition, GPAs have also gone up steadily from 3.54 in 1996 to 3.65 in 2007. :(

This is exactly what I was worried about.. Although, I did think the GPAs would be higher. Ugh... well I'm hoping like many of you that the new medical schools will help out with getting in somewhere.
 
this is right. The average MCAT score is not going up, but it is getting more competitive because of the increase in applicants, though with the new schools that are opening, it may help a little.
This is purely hypothetical, but this is how I reason it:

I personally think that if the number of matriculants is going up (the most recent "spike" being largely associated with the change in the economy), that means that pool of matriculants is probably less well prepared than the traditional die-hards. I think with a huge spike in the number of applicants / test takers, it may work in the favor of the more prepared b/c the curve may shift to compensate. I just can't imagine that these people who have decided to randomly "go back to school" b/c the economy is hitting the crapper are going to be as well prepared for the MCAT as some of the more traditional pre-meds.

Well, it may just be a "glass half full" and totaly boloney way to look at things, but it makes me feel better about my chances of getting a good MCAT so I'm going to tell myself that's the case :p
 
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