1st Time Applicant Success Rate

[pumpkinkitty]

What's the percentage of successful first time applicants to MD programs?
Thanks.

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[mwsapphire]

@gonnif

 

[CloverBale]

Well in 2015, your chances were 20,630/52,550

 

[Lardy Boy]

Amcas has a table that categorizes accepted applicants based off gpa (and others). You can try searching through those tables.


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[PreMedMissteps]

What do you really want to know and why?

This question seems to assume that each first-time applicant has an equal chance, but that's not true.

This question reminds me of the question, "what is the med school acceptance rate for this university," as if the number given tells a high school senior or his parent that student's chances of getting into med school if they go to that school.

 

[Goro]

Probably the GPA/MCAT grid by race/ethnicity for applicants/acceptees gives a more useful, if still crude, estimate of chances

Table A-24: MCAT and GPA Grid for Applicants and Acceptees by Selected Race and Ethnicity, 2013-2014 through 2015-2016 (Aggregated) - Applicants and Matriculants Data - FACTS: Applicants, Matriculants, Enrollment, Graduates, MD/PhD, and Residency Applicants Data - Data and Analysis - AAMC

Even this has to be taken with a grain of salt, because the weaker stat state schools (U KS/U AR class) skew the numbers because of their IS bias.

We also have to consider that when we look at stats it's one thing to garner interviews. Getting accepted is 100% on the candidate.

 

[Dr. Stalker]

The issue with obtaining a rate is the fact that there is no standard for applying, by that I mean, students are foolishly optimistic; it isn't uncommon to read on SDN students with a <500 MCAT and <3.0 GPA applying to only MD schools because he or she attended their undergrad and thinks that will get them admitted, volunteered at their hospital, or, my personal favorite, shadowed/did research with someone "on the admissions committee!!!" <-- None of those will overcome such poor numbers which leads to a depressing acceptance rate.

 

[fouracle]

The issue with obtaining a rate is the fact that there is no standard for applying, by that I mean, students are foolishly optimistic; it isn't uncommon to read on SDN students with a <500 MCAT and <3.0 GPA applying to only MD schools because he or she attended their undergrad and thinks that will get them admitted, volunteered at their hospital, or, my personal favorite, shadowed/did research with someone "on the admissions committee!!!" <-- None of those will overcome such poor numbers which leads to a depressing acceptance rate.

My parents and I were just discussing this the other day (to try to figure out a realistic percentage of my chance of getting into at least 1 medical school). Especially the MCAT part. The percentile of your score is very misleading. Even if you're in the top 5% of all test takers, your score really isn't as good as you think because realistically anyone with scores below maybe the 65-70th percentile probably won't apply (literally making arbitrary numbers up because I really have no idea due to the lack of data). Hence, someone with an MCAT score in the 95th percentile is actually only in around the top 20-25% of applicants and may overestimate how good their chances are, since only the top ~40% of applicants get in....

 

[Dr. Stalker]

My parents and I were just discussing this the other day (to try to figure out a realistic percentage of my chance of getting into at least 1 medical school). Especially the MCAT part. The percentile of your score is very misleading. Even if you're in the top 5% of all test takers, your score really isn't as good as you think because realistically anyone with scores below maybe the 65-70th percentile probably won't apply (literally making arbitrary numbers up because I really have no idea due to the lack of data). Hence, someone with an MCAT score in the 95th percentile is actually only in around the top 20-25% of applicants and may overestimate how good their chances are, since only the top ~40% of applicants get in....

I see what you're saying. However, if we're only considering 60th+ percentile scores applying, that's still a large amount. Many students do aim for the low tiers when they get a less than desirable MCAT score (I did that). However, if we see two identical applicants with respect to GPA and ECs (I'm making a few assumptions here in this hypothetical), 60th percentile vs. 95th percentile, a medical school will certainly look highly upon the 95th percentile applicant and potentially extend an II to that student. I do see your point, 95th percentile isn't as jawdropping once we remove anyone below 60th percentile, but its still a hella good score and applicants certainly easily/fairly get admitted with it. Ya feel me?