1st to declare a Romney presidency

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Osteoimperfecta

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Obama has imploded and unravelled as a political gimmick. Romney will smash him this Tuesday and Libya will do him in down the stretch. Oh good times!:smuggrin:
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Osteoimperfecta said:
Obama has imploded and unravelled as a political gimmick. Romney will smash him this Tuesday and Libya will do him in down the stretch. Oh good times!:smuggrin:
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Hope you are right, but I would bet money that you are wrong.
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
Obama has imploded and unravelled as a political gimmick. Romney will smash him this Tuesday and Libya will do him in down the stretch. Oh good times!:smuggrin:
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... or maybe Obama will show up to the last debate NOT hungover or stoned or whatever, and maybe some Libyan terrorists will get bombed or shot up by Seal Team 6 and the President will suddenly look like he's in charge again.

All Obama has to do is not look completely helpless during the next debate and avoid dead-hooker/live-boy problems for a few more weeks.

There is a 0% chance of Obama stinking up the next debate like he did the first one. Whatever else he is, he's a gifted politician who's smart enough to do some objective self-assessment and improve. That grotesquely-unhealthy looking creature that calls itself Al Gore might blame the altitude :rolleyes: but Obama certainly knows it was all him - and he'll put up a better fight next time. Count on it.


But I'm a little more optimistic than I was two weeks ago, and I'm allowing myself to be a little hopeful for a Romney win. :)
 
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I am also more hopeful that Romney can pull an upset. Frankly, I am surprised he and Ryan have not addressed the job situation in more depth. Something along the lines of "Obama has had 4 years and employment is still unacceptably low"
 
pgg said:
... or maybe Obama will show up to the last debate NOT hungover or stoned or whatever, and maybe some Libyan terrorists will get bombed or shot up by Seal Team 6 and the President will suddenly look like he's in charge again.

All Obama has to do is not look completely helpless during the next debate and avoid dead-hooker/live-boy problems for a few more weeks.

There is a 0% chance of Obama stinking up the next debate like he did the first one. Whatever else he is, he's a gifted politician who's smart enough to do some objective self-assessment and improve. That grotesquely-unhealthy looking creature that calls itself Al Gore might blame the altitude :rolleyes: but Obama certainly knows it was all him - and he'll put up a better fight next time. Count on it.


But I'm a little more optimistic than I was two weeks ago, and I'm allowing myself to be a little hopeful for a Romney win. :)
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I think he will stink even worse. It's an empty barrel.
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
Obama has imploded and unravelled as a political gimmick. Romney will smash him this Tuesday and Libya will do him in down the stretch. Oh good times!:smuggrin:
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Obama wins the presidency - 100% chance of this happening. Dare to say he won't? No problem....see you November 7th.
 
most polls have to over sample democrats by amounts that exceed 2008 turnout numbers just to give obama a tie. I think we can all agree the democratic base excitement will not be as high as it was then. Listening to obama guarantees reminds me of the 2004 election when pompous liberals were more than certain kerry would landslide bush.
 
Consigliere said:
:confused: Have you been living in America lately?
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??? Are you implying that things have been good in America? Skyrocketing gas and food prices, high unemployment with a LARGE underemployment rate, massive deficit with multiple unsustainable entitlement programs, multiple scandals(fast and furious, solyndra, Libya) and the ever famous Obamacare. How does that equal a landslide victory for Obama? I'm an independent but think that Obama is in trouble. Given the mess that our past administrations have left us, I think that whoever is in the white house for the next four years is also in trouble.
 
Only by misapplying the polling data can you call it a close race at this point (granted that is exactly what the majority of the new organizations are doing). Viewed as an aggregate, it is neck and neck, but this is meaningless. In the end, only the electoral college numbers matters. Obama is still kicking ass in the electoral college when the polling data is used to predict how those numbers shake out.

Granted he is losing ground and fell below the 270 threshold late last week, but he still looks to have a solid lock on 250ish votes to Romney's 220 (This assumes Pennsylvania to Obama and Florida to Romney, states in which they each hold about a 4% lead). In the states where the candidates hold narrow leads, Romney's leads are narrower than Obama's.

This does not, of course, take into account the question of momentum. The momentum of the polls is clearly toward Romney, but I don't think that current momentum is a good predictor of the final result, it swings back and forth based on things like debate perception.

This election likely hinges on Ohio at this point, no real surprise there.

- pod
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
:confused: Have you been following the polls and debates lately.
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Ohio, ohio, ohio

There are some reasons to be encouraged
- Obama's base is less motivated this year, turnout may favor Romney.
- Romney is a better candidate than McCain was.
- Ryan is 1000x the VP candidate than Palin was.
- Romney seems to be a bit ahead in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado now.

But if you're going to compare Obama's current campaign momentum to 2008, you have to remember that Obama won by a LOT in 2008. He can seriously underperform 2008 and still win.

The unfortunate fact is that Obama has MANY more plausible electoral paths to 270 than Romney does.

And - tomorrow's debate we'll see the real Obama, smooth and confident. Even if it's all empty platitudes, smoothness and confidence matters (just ask Romney). A lot of people who were repelled by his half-ass tenth-ass performance in the first debate will reconsider and get back on board.

This is still Obama's election to lose. He made a nice start blowing it in the first debate, but it's a little bit too far on the naively hopeful side to count on him to blow it again.

My money's still on Obama, even though my vote went to Romney.
 
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pgg said:
... or maybe Obama will show up to the last debate NOT hungover or stoned or whatever, and maybe some Libyan terrorists will get bombed or shot up by Seal Team 6 and the President will suddenly look like he's in charge again.

All Obama has to do is not look completely helpless during the next debate and avoid dead-hooker/live-boy problems for a few more weeks.

There is a 0% chance of Obama stinking up the next debate like he did the first one. Whatever else he is, he's a gifted politician who's smart enough to do some objective self-assessment and improve. That grotesquely-unhealthy looking creature that calls itself Al Gore might blame the altitude :rolleyes: but Obama certainly knows it was all him - and he'll put up a better fight next time. Count on it.


But I'm a little more optimistic than I was two weeks ago, and I'm allowing myself to be a little hopeful for a Romney win. :)
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I have to disagree with the bold statement. I think there is a 0% chance he puts up a similar type of performance. However, if he comes out in Joe Biden form, then I think that could hurt him just as bad. The only reason he is anywhere near Romney given his record is that he has a likable personality. If he ruins that, then he is screwed. I fully expect an aggressive assault. We will see if Romney can use it to make him look like a fool.
 
Yo GabbaPentin said:
??? Are you implying that things have been good in America? Skyrocketing gas and food prices, high unemployment with a LARGE underemployment rate, massive deficit with multiple unsustainable entitlement programs, multiple scandals(fast and furious, solyndra, Libya) and the ever famous Obamacare. How does that equal a landslide victory for Obama? I'm an independent but think that Obama is in trouble. Given the mess that our past administrations have left us, I think that whoever is in the white house for the next four years is also in trouble.
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I think he was referring to the entitlement society element of America which has grown exponentially and doesn't really care about any of those numbers/ issues you mentioned. They only care about who is most likely to maintain and expand the government gravy train.

There are, of course, the honest, true believers who think that a utopian America is possible and will overlook the numbers, but they aren't a big enough group in and of themselves to ensure a victory.

- pod
 
pgg said:
Ohio, ohio, ohio
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Yep

pgg said:
The unfortunate fact is that Obama has MANY more plausible electoral paths to 270 than Romney does.
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Yep

pgg said:
This is still Obama's election to lose. He made a nice start blowing it in the first debate, but it's a little bit too far on the naively hopeful side to count on him to blow it again.
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This might actually be an interesting debate from a tactical standpoint. I bet Romney lets Obama set the tone early. If he is aggressive, Romney will back down and play the voice of reason, only taking shots that are gimmes. This leaves Obama blustering in the breeze and tilting at windmills ala Biden. If Obama is too passive, Romney will probably hit hard like his first debate. Obama will have to strike a very balanced tone to not be run over by Romney.

It's like a hockey game where one team (Romney) has the lead and can sit back and match their opponent strength for strength. If they want to come out on the attack, put in a good defensive performance to protect your lead and wait for the scoring opportunities to fall into your lap. If they play it safe, just stick to your game plan. If you get another goal, they will become desperate and then you can really take advantage of them. Just don't fall into a two-goal lead complacency.

- pod
 
periopdoc said:
I think he was referring to the entitlement society element of America which has grown exponentially and doesn't really care about any of those numbers/ issues you mentioned. They only care about who is most likely to maintain and expand the government gravy train.

There are, of course, the honest, true believers who think that a utopian America is possible and will overlook the numbers, but they aren't a big enough group in and of themselves to ensure a victory.

- pod
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Bingo. That and the general America populace is too stupid and will vote for Obama again hoping for more "change."
 
BLADEMDA said:
Outside shot. But I think Romney can win
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Romney cannot win without OHIO, unless he sweeps all swings states. The chance of him doing so is pretty slim if not impossible. Early voting in OHIO Obama is winning 2:1. I am from Richmond Virginia and don't even see how Romney can carry Virginia on Nov 6. You're betting on wrong guy who cannot even win his home state that just how bad Romney is as candidate. Just come back to this page on Nov 7, Obama will be reelected, I'm 95% sure if you want to bet 10 K.
 
ger8 said:
Romney cannot win without OHIO, unless he sweeps all swings states. The chance of him doing so is pretty slim if not impossible. Early voting in OHIO Obama is winning 2:1. I am from Richmond Virginia and don't even see how Romney can carry Virginia on Nov 6. You're betting on wrong guy who cannot even win his home state that just how bad Romney is as candidate. Just come back to this page on Nov 7, Obama will be reelected, I'm 95% sure if you want to bet 10 K.
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Do you even have $10k? I think Blade could cover his end. ;)
Though I think the smart money is on Obama, unless he chokes and looks weak again at the debate. Mitt has to heap 4 years of failures, missed opportunities, and empty promises on his plate and keep him dancing, and avoid the easy to spin attack lines. He also has to have his dodge and parry replies down cold for the issues that he knows are coming. He won't get off so easily this time. And for the love of all that is holy, please have a few specifics other than sesame street FFS. Selling hope and change won't work again, and if he comes through with some details, the smoke and mirrors malarkey defense won't hold up. I hope he gives him a stool sandwich and makes him choke on it.
 
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I don't want Obama to win, but he will win. Obama will win a landslide, make no mistake.

You guys should be more worried about Senate and House of Reps. I think the Repubs will retain control of House, so thats good. The Senate might tip towards the Dems though because of idiots like Todd Akin and also Scott Brown making one little slip up when he said, "Scalia is a great justice." (I do think Scalia is a great justice, but Brown should know the ppl of Mass are stupid and like justices who don't believe in the constiution).

Seriously hoping the Repubs get control of Senate. I don't want the DREAM act to pass and I don't want to pay more in taxes.
 
It must be a relief for several of you to know the results of the election already. Thank goodness for the polls because those are always so accurate.

My opinion is that Obama does not have a fired up base and has not been overly appealing to independents. Joe Bidens arrogant display did not help things. Obama also has a horrible record regardless of how he tries to spin it. He had two solid years with a solid democrat house and senate. Cant keep blaming everyone else for his failures. The hope and change nonsense is stale.

I will be voting for Romney regardless of polling data. I can not predict anything based on those useless polls. All I can do is hope FOR change. I really hope that there aren't too many of you who will be staying at home because you think that it will be a 'landslide'
 
I just recall the 2004 election when kerry was supposed to win by a landslide. Please go vote and convince as many people as you can to do so as well. I personally have gotten 4 people to enthusiastically agree to come with me to the polls on election day. :thumbup:
 
For sober analysis that's more than just biased conjecture, go to Nate Silver's blog fivethirtyeight. Has Obama as a 2:1 favorite right now.
 
You mean the unbiased NY Times?? For more unbiased reporting please tune to Rush or Hannity on the unbiased Fox news!!:) Who cares what these polls and "experts" think? Everyone should go out and vote for their candidate regardless of what the completely biased media (on both sides) says. Even if your candidate is Vermin Supreme.
 
Yo GabbaPentin said:
You mean the unbiased NY Times?? For more unbiased reporting please tune to Rush or Hannity on the unbiased Fox news!!:) Who cares what these polls and "experts" think? Everyone should go out and vote for their candidate regardless of what the completely biased media (on both sides) says. Even if your candidate is Vermin Supreme.
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The NYT might be what it is, but Silver, being a former poker player, is completely objective in his assessments

His job is to predict outcomes. If he's biased, his predictions fail, and he fails at his job. So he's not.

Look elsewhere for media bias. Silver's analysis is rock solid, as evidenced by his performance in past elections.
 
Hawaiian Bruin said:
For sober analysis that's more than just biased conjecture, go to Nate Silver's blog fivethirtyeight. Has Obama as a 2:1 favorite right now.
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Agreed, 538 is excellent.

Nate Silver is an Obama fan (and doesn't hide his personal preference), and the comments sections lean heavily Democrat, but the statistical work and projections are carefully objective and I think they're the best of any that are published, anywhere.

I've been following him since before the 2008 election, before the NYT picked up his web site. I just wish the data he presents would tell me what I want to hear more often.
 
What happens when people who make a living predicting things are wrong? For example, economists, financial experts, political experts, weathermen, etc. Well, the come back to work the next day and do it again.

Maybe Obama wins and maybe he doesn't, but everyone here should at least recognize how full of $hit all these 'experts' are and realize that there are no consequences for being wrong. Almost all of them have an agenda.
 
AngryBird69 said:
I just recall the 2004 election when kerry was supposed to win by a landslide. Please go vote and convince as many people as you can to do so as well. I personally have gotten 4 people to enthusiastically agree to come with me to the polls on election day. :thumbup:
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Let me tell you what's happening in Virginia. My Mom voted for Bush twice (2000 and 2004) and voted for McCain in 2008. She voted for GOP only because she was told so by her evangelical pastor. My mom is a Christian who can sit and watch Pat Robertson all day without complaining. When asked who she will vote this time around her response was I don't know and when asked about what the church is planning for the election she states the pastor is confused about this election and told the church goers to go with their guts. She is planning to stay home because she doesn't want to cast her ballot for non Christian candidates running for white house. Republicans might be energized by Obama, but there is small fringe of Christians like my mom who won't go out to vote for Romney. The press won't cover the Mormonism impact on evangelical Christians for simple reason that they don't want to make religion argument in politics. The enthusiasm Gap between Democrats and republicans will balance out. Don't count on evangelical Christians to go out knocking on doors for Romney. Remember when evangelical Christians are energized about a specific candidate (BUSH) the candidate wins most of time. Romney is not insulated from what happened to Bob Dole and McCain. Just be prepared to accept the winner of Nov 6th and most likely will be Obama.
 
Obama wins, thank god for the middle class. Romney's business dealings and closed door speeches betray his callousness for the common worker. Job creator? Wake up already.
 
Yo GabbaPentin said:
What happens when people who make a living predicting things are wrong? For example, economists, financial experts, political experts, weathermen, etc. Well, the come back to work the next day and do it again.
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Do you know what happens when people who make a living predicting elections are very accurate over a period of years? Even when what they predict is contrary to general consensus?

Their no-name independent blogs get picked up by the New York Times and become the centerpiece of their political poll tracking. ;)


Yo GabbaPentin said:
Maybe Obama wins and maybe he doesn't, but everyone here should at least recognize how full of $hit all these 'experts' are and realize that there are no consequences for being wrong. Almost all of them have an agenda.
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Fox News polls and Huffington Post polls are certainly full of it.

I can tell you haven't been reading 538 though.
 
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Pooh & Annie said:
Obama wins, thank god for the middle class. Romney's business dealings and closed door speeches betray his callousness for the common worker. Job creator? Wake up already.
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And Obama's closed door speeches betray his disregard for the Constitution and the transparency he said he'd bring to government.

Y'all know what I think; I think the middle class is boned whichever one of them gets the job. I'm voting for not-Kagan and not-Sotomayor on the Supreme Court.
 
I'm very impressed with Romneys performance in the debate so far. Obama looks tired and doesn't have the energy/enthusiasm of the 2008 race.
 
Well how was the debate? I am going on hour 12 of this minimally invasive spine and I watched the stream of the debate with no audio. Visually speaking, Romney looked more presidential. Obama looked like an uncomfortable actor in an ill fitting suit.

Oh, and from where did they dredge up that moderator?

- pod
 
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http://www.factcheck.org/2012/08/romneys-impossible-tax-promise/

Article came out on August 6, yet we're still entertaining this nonsense? It's simply not possible, you really think Romney will cut taxes on the middle class? ok. And I get all the "don't blame Bush errr I'll crush a beer can on yer head", last time I checked Bush got us into 2 wars that cost perhaps 4.4 trillion

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/58002.html

Romney wants to add 2 trillion to our military spending, I think we've spent enough..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Unreal, let alone all of his archaic social positions. All I have to say is, time to stock up on some ammo boys, Obama is personally coming to your homes to take your guns away, runnnnnn!
 
periopdoc said:
Well how was the debate? I am going on hour 12 of this minimally invasive spine and I watched the stream of the debate with no audio. Visually speaking, Romney looked more presidential. Obama looked like an uncomfortable actor in an ill fitting suit.

Oh, and from where did they dredge up that moderator?

- pod
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I think most of us are intelligent enough to temper the subjective impression from these debates/campaigns with objective data and candidate histories. I personally think each debate had a clear winner. Obama has not accomplished what he promised, but there's no doubt that is in part due to obstructionism. Romney is to me an empty suit. I disagree with him outright on most social issues, and he absolutely refuses to give specifics on any of his plans. In the same way people complain about Obama blaming Bush for many of his problems (which he certainly does), Romney spent much of his time diverting his questions to talking about Obama's perceived failures instead of discussing his plans.
 
periopdoc said:
Well how was the debate? I am going on hour 12 of this minimally invasive spine and I watched the stream of the debate with no audio. Visually speaking, Romney looked more presidential. Obama looked like an uncomfortable actor in an ill fitting suit.

Oh, and from where did they dredge up that moderator?

- pod
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I am not into self deceit, so I have to tell you Romney had his nose bloodied a bit. He lost the debate but I think that is all he lost. Btw, he held his own for the most part but made silly mistakes where he left his chin exposed. Liberal media are oing to declare Obama the king of comebacks, but I still stand by my assertion that this is going to be a Romney presidency when it is all said and done.
 
Osteoimperfecta said:
I am not into self deceit, so I have to tell you Romney had his nose bloodied a bit. He lost the debate but I think that is all he lost. Btw, he held his own for the most part but made silly mistakes where he left his chin exposed. Liberal media are oing to declare Obama the king of comebacks, but I still stand by my assertion that this is going to be a Romney presidency when it is all said and done.
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Romney Lost the debate tonight and won't come back on next debate for the simple reason that the format will be foreign policy, which is not his strong suit. He tumbled on Bengazi question, which made him look non presidential. President Obama came very strong on that question as commander in chief while he is currently vulnerable on that specific section. Republicans should start focusing in house and senate races as Romney did himself a big disservice to his candidacy tonight and made himself unacceptable commander in chief alternative. After watching the debate, there is no doubt in my mind that he will loose the race, unless something spectacular happens from now on to the election day.
 
ger8 said:
Romney Lost the debate tonight and won't come back on next debate for the simple reason that the format will be foreign policy, which is not his strong suit. He tumbled on Bengazi question, which made him look non presidential. President Obama came very strong on that question as commander in chief while he is currently vulnerable on that specific section. Republicans should start focusing in house and senate races as Romney did himself a big disservice to his candidacy tonight and made himself unacceptable commander in chief alternative. After watching the debate, there is no doubt in my mind that he will loose the race, unless something spectacular happens from now on to the election day.
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We shall see. Romney won the debate in my opinion and will win the election. The results will be in November 7th. Until then all of this is pure conjecture.
 
Theres no way romney came off weak in foreign policy. The moderator incorrectly fact checked romney in favor of obama. She was way out of line and the commision did a terrible job of selecting a biase moderator. Shes also the same person who said "romney ended his election when he chose ryan."
 
ger8 said:
Romney Lost the debate tonight and won't come back on next debate for the simple reason that the format will be foreign policy, which is not his strong suit. He tumbled on Bengazi question, which made him look non presidential. President Obama came very strong on that question as commander in chief while he is currently vulnerable on that specific section. Republicans should start focusing in house and senate races as Romney did himself a big disservice to his candidacy tonight and made himself unacceptable commander in chief alternative. After watching the debate, there is no doubt in my mind that he will loose the race, unless something spectacular happens from now on to the election day.
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I disagree, see you in November.
 
TRuSchool said:
Theres no way romney came off weak in foreign policy. The moderator incorrectly fact checked romney in favor of obama. She was way out of line and the commision did a terrible job of selecting a biase moderator. Shes also the same person who said "romney ended his election when he chose ryan."
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I prefer to blame Romney for the loss not the moderator. He knew coming in he was debating in newyork against obama and candy. The Benghazi thing was horrible for Romney. He tried to create real time drama off a press conference he obviously did not watch, and ended up embarrassing himself and making Obama look more presidential. Just calling a spade a spade, but Nov 7th Romney will be president because his economic plan makes way more sense.
 
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