there are 86 members in the class of 2023 FB group.. and I assume some of these are current students or faculty. how the heck are they going to fill the class before the 15...? it seems like barely anybody has heard back post-II
Two things that tell you basically nothing about the inner working of the admissions office and your personal chances are the number of FB group members and the number of SDN posts.
While invites to the FB group have been sent to all those who put down a deposit, most people will not join until late spring/summer, when they're certain other offers won't pan out.
SDN posts are also only indicative of SDN members who have heard back AND choose to share that info. There are
maybe 300 folks posting in this thread (haven't counted, just a guess) and possibly another couple hundred lurkers. Out of the >14k applicants this year...
So while its not necessarily representative of the whole applicant pool - because it's a random sampling, it may be more realistic than you think.
14 k apps, 195 M1s --> 1.4% will matriculate.
Say double that for admissions offers...
14 k apps, 400 acceptances --> 2.8%
If you're post interview, about 1000 II go out each year. So...
1000 interviews, 195 matriculants --> 19.5%
1000 interviews, 400 acceptances -->40%
If we guess 500 applicants on this thread who would share if they got in, then at a rate of 0.028%, that would be 14 people.
More than that have already responded here saying they were accepted, so I'd guess they're not going to have any problems filling up the class at this point (not that they ever do)
So, the point being, just because you haven't heard back or "a lot" of people haven't posted about acceptances here, doesn't mean that things aren't on schedule in the admissions office. It just means, most likely, that most of you are in the 98.6% of the applicant pool, or 60% of interviewees, that will not get accepted.
The cycle's not over here and more people will be accepted, but if you don't have an acceptance in hand somewhere by now, then you should already be making alternate plans and taking a hard look at your app if you want to reapply.
Best of luck to everyone still waiting for their first!
