It's a definition, so what would have been studied other than physiology? It isn't even universally defined as 500, with some authors choosing 400 and others, 0.5mL/kg/hr.
Physiologically, the minimum urine output in 24hrs, assuming 600mOsm of obligatory solute excretion and maximum 1200mOsm/L of concentrating capacity, is 500mL.
On PubMed,
the oldest accessible paper on oliguria reports that solute concentration is maximal at 0.35-0.5mL/hr, which is about 800mL/24hrs.
The RIFLE guideline for AKI states that an output < 0.5mL/kg/hr for more than 6 hours (~800mL/24hrs for 70kg BW) meets criteria for oliguric AKI which generally portends poor outcomes.
A more recent paper challenged this definition saying that < 0.3mL/kg/hr (~500mL/24hrs for 70kg BW) was more indicative of poor outcomes.
It's an old and somewhat arbitrary definition, and is only a marker to alert you to be more vigilant of the causes (hypotension, ischemia, obstruction, i.e. indications for intervention) and consequences of renal dysfunction (i.e. indications for dialysis).