95% of 2016 CWRU graduates matched to their first choice residency?!

[scienceguy95]

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I stumbled across this US News article, and it claims 95% of CWRU grads got their first choice for residency in 2016. Could this possibly be true? Because given the large class size, that’s absolutely insane. Or is it an anomaly?

https://www.usnews.com/education/be...re-likely-to-get-their-first-choice-residency

 

[PhilzCoffeeAddict]

Is this based off word of mouth or the actual match? Seems absurdly high.

 

[scienceguy95]

Is this based off word of mouth or the actual match? Seems absurdly high.

I don’t think the article specifies. However, Mayo has reported that 70% of their students get their first choice, which is consistent with the linked article.

 

[efle]

Yeah this is misleading. You have to remember it means they matched to their first ranked residency.

In order to rank a residency, you have to be invited to interview there. And to be invited to interview, you have to apply.

So let's say someone with an average step scores, average grades, average everything decides they want to match to their home program in something that isn't very competitive there. They'll apply, get interviewed, rank it first and match. Boom, another person matching their first choice!

But they didn't apply to super competitive residencies and even if they did, they wouldn't have gotten interviewed and wouldn't have the chance to rank them. So this number does not mean that going to Case gives you a 95% success rate for matching MGH, or derm, or whatever.

Edit: Also should be a big red flag that the article is BS when Columbia's placement puts it next to a bottom-end DO school

 

[scienceguy95]

Yeah this is misleading. You have to remember it means they matched to their first ranked residency.

In order to rank a residency, you have to be invited to interview there. And to be invited to interview, you have to apply.

So let's say someone with an average step scores, average grades, average everything decides they want to match to their home program in something that isn't very competitive there. They'll apply, get interviewed, rank it first and match. Boom, another person matching their first choice!

But they didn't apply to super competitive residencies and even if they did, they wouldn't have gotten interviewed and wouldn't have the chance to rank them. So this number does not mean that going to Case gives you a 95% success rate for matching MGH, or derm, or whatever.

Edit: Also should be a big red flag that the article is BS when Columbia's placement puts it next to a bottom-end DO school

Sure, but this is a caveat for every school, not just Case. And I think it should be noted that Case's average Step 1 score is quite high (mid 240s -- on par with Penn and Mayo). Assuming the average Case student does well academically, it seems they would have their choice of residency (they may not be Harvard, but it's also not a no-name state school).

Looking at their 2016 match list, it definitely looks like a lot of students matched to their home program (as with any school), but there are a decent number of top academic centers included on the list as well (Cleveland Clinic, MGH, Penn).

Also, I'm not sure whether this includes the match results for the CCLCM students. Their match list is even more impressive (almost all top academic centers).

Anyways, I just brought this up because I found it interesting (and to see if anyone has any insights).

http://www.casemed.org/uploads/2/1/6/3/21638048/2016-cwru-match-list.pdf

 

[efle]

In theory you’re correct, but not for this particular school. Case students generally

Sure, but this is a caveat for every school, not just Case. And I think it should be noted that Case's average Step 1 score is quite high (mid 240s -- on par with Penn and Mayo). Assuming the average Case student does well academically, it seems they would have their choice of residency (they may not be Harvard, but it's also not a no-name state school).

Looking at their 2016 match list, it definitely looks like a lot of students matched to their home program (as with any school), but there are a decent number of top academic centers included on the list as well (Cleveland Clinic, MGH, Penn).

Also, I'm not sure whether this includes the match results for the CCLCM students. Their match list is even more impressive (almost all top academic centers).

Anyways, I just brought this up because I found it interesting (and to see if anyone has any insights).

http://www.casemed.org/uploads/2/1/6/3/21638048/2016-cwru-match-list.pdf

A 240 step does not get you your choice of residency to this kind of extreme. You're right that it's true for all schools though. All places reporting these very high match rates to top choices (commonly "top 3 choices") are giving a misleading number if you don't interpret it with the context of the residency app/ranking process. When the place coming in at #2 (ahead of Stanford) is a DO program, then the numbers are not actually telling the story that the headline implies. High values show that people are usually competitive for their favorite among the places that interviewed them, not that people can aim at the top and get interviewed and ranked highly by PDs all but 2% of the time. If you really want to read into this number in the latter way, you'd need to make an argument that Edward College of Osteopathy is beating out Columbia and Stanford in the match.

The 98% number is pretty absurd even with this context though, I suspect it's an error since these are self-reported values and it's more like 98% match to a top ranked choice (like top 3-5) rather than their #1 rank.

 

[scienceguy95]

A 240 step does not get you your choice of residency to this kind of extreme. You're right that it's true for all schools though. All places reporting these very high match rates to top choices (commonly "top 3 choices") are giving a misleading number if you don't interpret it with the context of the residency app/ranking process. When the place coming in at #2 (ahead of Stanford) is a DO program, then the numbers are not actually telling the story that the headline implies. High values show that people are usually competitive for their favorite among the places that interviewed them, not that people can aim at the top and get interviewed and ranked highly by PDs all but 2% of the time. If you really want to read into this number in the latter way, you'd need to make an argument that Edward College of Osteopathy is beating out Columbia and Stanford in the match.

The 98% number is pretty absurd even with this context though, I suspect it's an error since these are self-reported values and it's more like 98% match to a top ranked choice (like top 3-5) rather than their #1 rank.

I certainly agree with you that it's fishy. At the very least, it sounds like a statistic Case would plaster all over its own website if it were true. But I think this also brings to light the issue of "reading" Match Lists. It doesn't seem like there's a good way to do so. There are a two ways that come to mind, but both have limitations.

1) Look at the number of top academic programs and/or competitive specialties in the match list. However, this can be misleading because not everyone wants to go to MGH or JHU. Furthermore, not everyone wants to specialize in something competitive for personal interest reasons.

2) Look at the % of students who get their top choice(s). You already pointed out the limitation with this (don't know if a true top choice was excluded because they weren't interviewed).

 

[efle]

I certainly agree with you that it's fishy. At the very least, it sounds like a statistic Case would plaster all over its own website if it were true. But I think this also brings to light the issue of "reading" Match Lists. It doesn't seem like there's a good way to do so. There are a two ways that come to mind, but both have limitations.

1) Look at the number of top academic programs and/or competitive specialties in the match list. However, this can be misleading because not everyone wants to go to MGH or JHU. Furthermore, not everyone wants to specialize in something competitive for personal interest reasons.

2) Look at the % of students who get their top choice(s). You already pointed out the limitation with this (don't know if a true top choice was excluded because they weren't interviewed).

For reference, 80% of matched MS4s overall get a top 3 match. I think people should completely ignore the numbers schools tell them on websites/interview days about percent matching top choices. It's just not a meaningful number when the process blocks you from ranking places that are out of your league.

It's true that reading match lists isn't straightforward. There can be huge fluctuations between years in the numbers going for particular specialties, and the places that are or aren't big names for a specialty can be surprising (for example JHU is big for a bunch of surgical stuff like ENT, plastics, neurosurg, urology but then not for ortho). If you expect you'll be gunning for a competitive spot at a major center you can get a gist of how much of the class does that successfully every year, but I would never try to read into details of a match list to decide where to attend between similar schools.

And I definitely wouldn't factor in the self-reported % matching high on their rank list (especially considering the 15% response rate this survey had!)

 

[calivianya]

A 240 step does not get you your choice of residency to this kind of extreme. You're right that it's true for all schools though. All places reporting these very high match rates to top choices (commonly "top 3 choices") are giving a misleading number if you don't interpret it with the context of the residency app/ranking process. When the place coming in at #2 (ahead of Stanford) is a DO program, then the numbers are not actually telling the story that the headline implies. High values show that people are usually competitive for their favorite among the places that interviewed them, not that people can aim at the top and get interviewed and ranked highly by PDs all but 2% of the time. If you really want to read into this number in the latter way, you'd need to make an argument that Edward College of Osteopathy is beating out Columbia and Stanford in the match.

The 98% number is pretty absurd even with this context though, I suspect it's an error since these are self-reported values and it's more like 98% match to a top ranked choice (like top 3-5) rather than their #1 rank.

As a VCOM acceptee, I took a look at their most recent match list for the campus I've been accepted at... and it's not great. I live three hours away from this campus, so I'm familiar with a good bit of the hospitals people matched at. I've worked at several of them. Naturally, they are teaching hospitals, but very few of them have an attached medical school. You are really looking at community hospitals that happen to have residency programs, for the ones I was familiar enough with to recognize.

IMO, it's entirely possible that the reason VCOM's match rates to first choice residencies is so high is that students from VCOM know their limitations as a 500-average-MCAT DO school. Maybe the school even encourages them to pick residency programs that have taken their own graduates in the past and not to reach for the moon when it comes to looking for a residency. It would make sense for students to match at a very high rate to their first choice residencies if they are coached into hoping for a certain type/tier of residency, and mostly apply to those.

On the flip side, it would also make sense for top school first choice matches to be lower with that same logic - nobody at Columbia or Stanford is going to tell their grads to reach for low tier non-academic residencies. It would be the best students fighting over the best residencies at those places.

 

[KdotLB]

I stumbled across this US News article, and it claims 95% of CWRU grads got their first choice for residency in 2016. Could this possibly be true? Because given the large class size, that’s absolutely insane. Or is it an anomaly?

https://www.usnews.com/education/be...re-likely-to-get-their-first-choice-residency

I have seen this before and what it tells me is that their career advising probably does a good job of networking and/or providing REALISTIC services tailored to EACH student. Just a premed here tho, so idk.


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[Dwan]

It's self reported and the response rate is really low so it's definitely selection bias (people who got their #1 are happy to say so). No school has an overall rate that high, even accounting for the fact that you can only get places you interviewed at. Case isn't special in their ability to match and definitely doesn't compare to the boost that applicants from HMS and top 10 schools get when applying to residencies, which apparently fall below it in this metric. Students interviewing at places in the most competitive residencies (top field + top program) see mostly others from those schools and not Case. Case matches well, but similarly to any other school in their ranking range, and considering their very high average step, nothing unusually amazing.