getfat

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I would rather have a job than no even if it means having the least desirable residency program ever. This is good news no two ways about it.
Agreed I just wish they would tell us which of these are categorical vs preliminary. Having a job for a year is better than nothing though.
 
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DrStephenStrange

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Really wish they would have divided out the Match and the SOAP into different categories. But it's hopeful information if you do have to SOAP next year that there is likely a spot for you
I think 90.7% matched, so that leaves 8.5% using the soap.
 

Neopolymath

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Where are they anyway? Too embarrassed to make any comments about their past arguments?
Bad dig. Neither of them said anything particularly wrong/controversial and are certainly no worse posters than the head in the sand types that frequent here until they get curb stomped by their school/the match.
 
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Spectreman

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So frustrating that DOs completely obliterate the merger doom and gloom thats been touted here the last 5 years only to be hit with COVID and now Step 1 p/f doom and gloom lol. Maybe this is just proof that we likely find away around those upcoming struggle just like always.
Almost like anal retentive med students are always going to be moaning over something...
 

sumtimesuwonder

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I wish there was a way to separate how many students match to a preliminary without a categorical match from everyone else. It is awesome that the 8.5% that don't match are getting jobs in the SOAP, but what happens a year later to those who are only doing TRIs and have to match again?
 

Chibucks15

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Also I'm interested to see what this COVID bomb does to our matching stats. I'm not even going for a competitive field (neuro) and I literally cannot find a rotation right now. I've been neuro since day 1 and my school it isn't a core which is fine that isn't unusual. But COVID has completely blown up every rotation I have worked my ass off to set up. I cannot even imagine the people in fields where aways matter a hell of a lot more than neuro. Yeah I know that programs are aware of the situation but it is going to be anything but usual and I honestly think most of our match lists will be useless to younger med students. Maybe I'm just frustrated but holy hell make up your mind away rotation sites. I have no home program, have pity on me haha
 

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This kind of data release is similar to me as the schools board pass rates. They often share pass rates as "we have a 98% pass rate for level 1!", but in the small print in the appendix of the document/presentation, it says that the pass rate is two-time pass rate, essentially 98% of students pass level 1 on their first two attempts. My school did that and it took a while for our class to realize that it wasn't a first-time pass rate.

Similar to this, sharing the placement rate, but not really being clear with how many had to SOAP, or even how many were placed in something other than their top speciality.

Okay okay, enough with the doom and gloom. This is good news and I'm really crossing my fingers that DO's have another successful match this upcoming March. Regardless of the COVID mess.
 

Dr.Bruh

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The 2016 entering class was 6995 (AACOM) + 230 (TCOM) = 7225 students
This report indicates 6886 graduates in 2020.
This puts attrition at 339/7225= 4.7%
I though attrition rate was "true" non-completion rate? ie the people who start medical school and never finish. Most schools calculate a 4,5and, 6 year graduation rate and anything after that is attrition or if they leave on their own and don't come back. 4.7% just indicates a 95.3% 4 year graduation rate right? BC some of those people may be repeating a year so graduating next year or took a fellow/research year?
 

jkdoctor

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I though attrition rate was "true" non-completion rate? ie the people who start medical school and never finish. Most schools calculate a 4,5and, 6 year graduation rate and anything after that is attrition or if they leave on their own and don't come back. 4.7% just indicates a 95.3% 4 year graduation rate right? BC some of those people may be repeating a year so graduating next year or took a fellow/research year?
Yes. But if you think about it the attrition rate over time is the rate of non-completion over time. If ever year you have 7225 new matriculants and 6995 graduates then your average attrition is 4.7% no matter how you compute it.
 
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AnatomyGrey12

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Really wish they would have divided out the Match and the SOAP into different categories. But it's hopeful information if you do have to SOAP next year that there is likely a spot for you
True DO Senior match rate this year was 91.7%.

Credit to @hallowmann for their annual analysis

 

DrStephenStrange

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True DO Senior match rate this year was 91.7%.

Credit to @hallowmann for their annual analysis

Match rate for DO seniors is 90.7%. I think he made a mistake there.
 

hallowmann

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Also I'm interested to see what this COVID bomb does to our matching stats. I'm not even going for a competitive field (neuro) and I literally cannot find a rotation right now. I've been neuro since day 1 and my school it isn't a core which is fine that isn't unusual. But COVID has completely blown up every rotation I have worked my ass off to set up. I cannot even imagine the people in fields where aways matter a hell of a lot more than neuro. Yeah I know that programs are aware of the situation but it is going to be anything but usual and I honestly think most of our match lists will be useless to younger med students. Maybe I'm just frustrated but holy hell make up your mind away rotation sites. I have no home program, have pity on me haha
I wasn't worried about the merger, and even I am impressed with how well things have gone. This is basically among the best possible outcomes. That said, I'm worried about this year. Too many unpredictable barriers. It may be fine, but I don't blame anyone for being nervous.

The 2016 entering class was 6995 (AACOM) + 230 (TCOM) = 7225 students
This report indicates 6886 graduates in 2020.
This puts attrition at 339/7225= 4.7%
Its probably higher than this. I suspect there's some other variables not accounted for.

Match rate for DO seniors is 90.7%. I think he made a mistake there.
Mentioned this in the other thread, but for people's info here, the actual match rate is 91.7%. This incorporates the military and other matches. The NRMP match rate was 90.7% for those that participated, but only constituted 86.9% of graduates..
 
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zero0

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Am I the only one who finds this data kinda useless? I totally get it, it's fun for neurotic med students to speculate, but without accounting for things like people who matched categorical vs a dead end prelim this just doesn't tell me much. The charting outcomes are probably the only semi useful piece of data the NRMP puts out and even that has serious limitations.
 

DrStephenStrange

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Am I the only one who finds this data kinda useless? I totally get it, it's fun for neurotic med students to speculate, but without accounting for things like people who matched categorical vs a dead end prelim this just doesn't tell me much. The charting outcomes are probably the only semi useful piece of data the NRMP puts out and even that has serious limitations.
Not all prelim matches are bad matches. Some people are just doing their intern year, so they can move into an advanced program for pgy2. Also a prelim is better than nothing, in 30 states right now you can still get a license after completing only an internship.
 

FutureDoctor5000

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Not all prelim matches are bad matches. Some people are just doing their intern year, so they can move into an advanced program for pgy2. Also a prelim is better than nothing, in 30 states right now you can still get a license after completing only an internship.
Also I know several people from my school who were in these "dead end prelim" spots and eventually matched into their #1 specialty, so its not the end of the world
 

Rekt

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Also I know several people from my school who were in these "dead end prelim" spots and eventually matched into their #1 specialty, so its not the end of the world
I also know many who did not. No idea what they're doing now. Anecdotes work both ways. Prelims without a definitive PGY2 placement are almost as bad as not matching. That's the data that needs published.
 
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FutureDoctor5000

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I also know many who did not. No idea what they're doing now. Anecdotes work both ways. Prelims without a definitive PGY2 placement are almost as bad as not matching. That's the data that needs published.
They can obtain a license and practice in primary care/urgent care in like 30-35 states if I am correct.
 

Rekt

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They can obtain a license and practice in primary care/urgent care in like 30-35 states if I am correct.
Ten years ago maybe. Now you're competing with all the pretend-level providers and noctors. If you get a gig it'll probably be 70 an hour. Which it'll come out to barely more than minimum wage after the average DO students debt.
 

ERK123

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I also know many who did not. No idea what they're doing now. Anecdotes work both ways. Prelims without a definitive PGY2 placement are almost as bad as not matching. That's the data that needs published.
Just looking at individual school match lists, it seems like there are far far fewer people matching into prelim positions than there were several years ago. It used to be a pretty common route for DO’s to take.
 
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BorntobeDO?

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I miss both of them, frankly.
Busy getting stuff done brother, you guys may be off, but I’m already rolling. Also, I have made an effort to disengage from some negativity as I move on to new stage, so I am not coming on here near as much. Someone else can balance the discussion here. I am happy if the 99% is true. I am sure that someone else can verify the qualifiers and asterisks that the NBOME will have associated.
I though attrition rate was "true" non-completion rate? ie the people who start medical school and never finish. Most schools calculate a 4,5and, 6 year graduation rate and anything after that is attrition or if they leave on their own and don't come back. 4.7% just indicates a 95.3% 4 year graduation rate right? BC some of those people may be repeating a year so graduating next year or took a fellow/research year?
No, the 95 is the 6 year rate overall cause you are just comparing total matched/graduated which includes people that where held back for w/e reason. It’s actually encouraging, but this is one of the numbers I think will decrease in the future.
 

BorntobeDO?

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Looks like we're back in the 99% club baby. Please come make Doom and Gloom great again @sab3156 and @BorntobeDO? .
I guess I should address this even tho it’s in jest: 2020 as I have stated before, went much much better than I thought it would overall.

However, that does not change my overall sentiments towards the future of DO students matching. We are nearing saturation and with step going pass/fail that will come sooner rather than later IMO.

I would not advise anyone to go DO who has a realistic shot of going MD at this point. I still think that by 2027 or 28 the placement rate will drop below 95% and/or the attrition will go way up. We have added 3k more students since 2020 started and add more every year. That stuff isn’t happening in a vacuum, and I don’t see lots of legislation pushing for new residency slots right now after COVID. Heck, I am reading the AMA talking about the job market getting worse (hopefully temporary: Pandemic significantly alters job market for residents, fellows). That shouldn’t be your focus in school, you just need to survive, but to say medicines outlook is better than ever would be false.

Rather than worrying/arguing about what Sab or I say, the biggest takeaway from our posts should be to make yourself the most competitive applicant you can, so you can match the best program you can (long-standing, preferably university, not for profit etc). It’s not getting easier out here. I just had a classmate of mine whose rural FM residency hospital got bought out and they decided to shutter his program after the match. So he matched but is already a orphan resident before he even started and so is everyone else in his program. They are part of that placement rate, but obviously it isn’t real for him or his cohort.

Be very careful with your rank list and apply to 100+ programs minimum( and this year I would do even more since in person interviews aren’t happening). Be wary of new residency’s or hospitals with very poor benefits/for profit status.

Anyway, hope that met your need for gloom. You guys think we get some sort of joy out of this, but at least for me, I am merely trying to warn what I think will happen, especially as I have been on the wrong side of a saturated market in the past and wished someone had said something. I can be wrong, and I definitely was this year, but I think long term, without major changes to the status quo, the situation will get bad for DO students and really all medical students that have any flags.

My silver lining is that students have more influence thru social media than they ever had in the past. As our efforts for getting PE removed as a requirement showed, we can make a difference (and yes I did fill out the survey and sign my support). Anyway, this is more than I intended to post. Keep going guys, you can do this.
 

hallowmann

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...I would not advise anyone to go DO who has a realistic shot of going MD at this point.
To be fair this has basically always been true.

...I still think that by 2027 or 28 the placement rate will drop below 95% and/or the attrition will go way up. We have added 3k more students since 2020 started and add more every year. That stuff isn’t happening in a vacuum, and I don’t see lots of legislation pushing for new residency slots right now after COVID. Heck, I am reading the AMA talking about the job market getting worse (hopefully temporary: Pandemic significantly alters job market for residents, fellows). That shouldn’t be your focus in school, you just need to survive, but to say medicines outlook is better than ever would be false.

Rather than worrying/arguing about what Sab or I say, the biggest takeaway from our posts should be to make yourself the most competitive applicant you can, so you can match the best program you can (long-standing, preferably university, not for profit etc). It’s not getting easier out here. I just had a classmate of mine whose rural FM residency hospital got bought out and they decided to shutter his program after the match. So he matched but is already a orphan resident before he even started and so is everyone else in his program. They are part of that placement rate, but obviously it isn’t real for him or his cohort.

Be very careful with your rank list and apply to 100+ programs minimum( and this year I would do even more since in person interviews aren’t happening). Be wary of new residency’s or hospitals with very poor benefits/for profit status.

Anyway, hope that met your need for gloom. You guys think we get some sort of joy out of this, but at least for me, I am merely trying to warn what I think will happen, especially as I have been on the wrong side of a saturated market in the past and wished someone had said something. I can be wrong, and I definitely was this year, but I think long term, without major changes to the status quo, the situation will get bad for DO students and really all medical students that have any flags.

My silver lining is that students have more influence thru social media than they ever had in the past. As our efforts for getting PE removed as a requirement showed, we can make a difference (and yes I did fill out the survey and sign my support). Anyway, this is more than I intended to post. Keep going guys, you can do this.
2028, may be a reasonable prediction.

Unfortunately the programs randomly shutting down is just another example of how crappy it is to be a resident and have 0 control in your track or environment. We all know what happened to Hahnemann, and I've spoken before about a local program that shuttered and how outrageous it was, and essentially how they lied, gave little warning to residents, and ultimately did it to save money and hire a bunch of NPs. Its a mess. The fact that the ACGME has minimal safe guards for this is horrible.

100+ programs seems a bit extreme, but for some people, especially DOs with red flags that is probably reasonable.
 

BlueBleck

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I still think that by 2027 or 28 the placement rate will drop below 95% and/or the attrition will go way up. We have added 3k more students since 2020 started and add more every year. That stuff isn’t happening in a vacuum, and I don’t see lots of legislation pushing for new residency slots right now after COVID.
History doesn't predict the future, but it's one of the best ways to prognosticate. And to date, all warnings about the dilution and devaluation of the degree have fizzled nearly completely out. This might be the final straw. It could very well not be. As goro likes to say, there's a surplus of like 3k residency slots that are being eaten up by FMGs. When that buffer frays, i would personally start to worry.

To be fair this has basically always been true.
Even amidst all of this craziness as a member of c/o 2021, I'd still rather go to my rinky dink DO school over harvard, solely for location. I think some people value prestige way too highly. Just adding a word against the sea of self-abasement that is our board. I really like my classmates. My upperclassmen are awesome. I'm having a great time. I'm learning lots. I had great board scores (so clearly something was sufficient). I have no concerns about matching even now (though preferred location might be an issue). Nothing harvard could have offered me would have been worth my leaving my family, SO, and friends. I'm really glad there was a DO school nearby that admitted me.

If some of you would have had your way, I would be miserable in some other state. And evidently, I would be better off for it.
 

texan2016

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Agreed I just wish they would tell us which of these are categorical vs preliminary. Having a job for a year is better than nothing though.
Would that still yield a medical license after the 1 year ? Like does that count as an internship for license purposes ?
 

getfat

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Would that still yield a medical license after the 1 year ? Like does that count as an internship for license purposes ?
I'm just a med student so thats a better question for somebody that has graduated.

I only know one person (in GA) that is in this scenario and she is working at an urgent care clinic.
 

DameJulie

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Side question, so if you apply to 100+ program, how many interviews can you realistically attend without your M4 rotations?
 
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Neopolymath

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Side question, so if you apply to 100+ program, how many interviews can you realistically attend without your M4 rotations?
Depends completely on your attendings. DO schools have notoriously bad policies regarding missing rotations for interviews so you must essentially tell your attending you need to interview but not to tell the school or report the absences.
 

hallowmann

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Side question, so if you apply to 100+ program, how many interviews can you realistically attend without your M4 rotations?
It varies, but the most I've ever heard of a current student attending is 25. Realistically more than 20 will be very difficult and most people attend ~15. That was under normal circumstances though, so who knows where that number will be with virtual interviews. It may be much higher if people don't have to worry about traveling.
 
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mathnerd88

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It varies, but the most I've ever heard of a current student attending is 25. Realistically more than 20 will be very difficult and most people attend ~15. That was under normal circumstances though, so who knows where that number will be with virtual interviews. It may be much higher if people don't have to worry about traveling.
This past cycle I went on 30 interviews. My SO went to 35 interviews. It was honestly very difficult and I wouldn't recommend doing this. I was a neurotic med student who was scared of not matching and went to almost every interview invite I got. Lots of money wasted on travel. However, this year will be different, and it would be drastically cheaper for interviews.

In retrospect I wouldn't recommend going on more than 20 interviews if you're just applying to one specialty.
 
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Dr. Death

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I had 31 invites and had every intention of attending 20+ interviews. It would have been possible but at a certain point you will 100% burn out and not be as sharp or motivated. I ended up going to 18 and wish I would have gone to more like 14
 
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