D
deleted915203
Regarding stocks, what sectors will you avoid or invest your path savings in when the market bottoms?
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2010
- Messages
- 2,130
- Reaction score
- 1,032
Screw stocks. Buy rental properties, farms, start businesses. You are a 1 percenter, build an empire. Stocks are just a fun gamble. I used my Guardant stock earnings to buy more rentals.
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 539
- Reaction score
- 676
I like KO, AMEX, UPS, APPL, GOOGLE
Not all at once
Wondering if the some of the airlines that might be tempting to buy on the cheap may actually go bankrupt
Not all at once
Wondering if the some of the airlines that might be tempting to buy on the cheap may actually go bankrupt
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
I dont think we know which stocks will weather this and come out at the end a significant value vs. share price just yet.
I get text messages ALL day asking what I am buying at the bottom answer: ask me when the bottom finally arrives.
I get text messages ALL day asking what I am buying at the bottom answer: ask me when the bottom finally arrives.
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
- 2,801
- Reaction score
- 1,186
Here is how to maximize profits:
Step 1: build a time machine
Step 2: go back in time 3 weeks
Step 3: sell all your stocks
Step 4: hold cash
Step 5: wait for there to be signs that the quarantine is about to be lifted
Step 6: put all your cash back into the market
Step 1: build a time machine
Step 2: go back in time 3 weeks
Step 3: sell all your stocks
Step 4: hold cash
Step 5: wait for there to be signs that the quarantine is about to be lifted
Step 6: put all your cash back into the market
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
- 2,801
- Reaction score
- 1,186
I try not to look at my portfolio. XOM is down like 60%... I just bought some more last month as they were already at 10-year lows... ouch
- Joined
- Jun 20, 2011
- Messages
- 163
- Reaction score
- 111
Neogenomics
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 539
- Reaction score
- 676
Tough to be a landlord in most of New England. Tenant stops paying, 6 months at least to evict and landlord usually ends up paying tenant to move out while praying hey don’t trash the property during the process.
Also if you refuse to rent to someone based on past issues renting other properties you can get sued for discrimination.
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2010
- Messages
- 2,130
- Reaction score
- 1,032
6 months? That is insane. 10 days here.
If I were you, I'd move to the Midwest. Get away from the liberals.
If I were you, I'd move to the Midwest. Get away from the liberals.
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
- 2,801
- Reaction score
- 1,186
The problem is that maintaining property, buying and selling, are all WORK. I already have a job. As bad as the market is right now, I have no doubt a year from now we will be higher (DJIA) than we are now. If everyone dumped their stocks permanently and bout property, prices would skyrocket, and unlike stocks, real estate is pretty much a zero-sum game (relative to the population). Money is always created.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2008
- Messages
- 529
- Reaction score
- 524
I pay a management company to handle my rentals...and I get to write it off.
Agreed. Even if there's a management company involved, I still prefer the liquidity of stocks over real estate. I like owning real estate for myself and enjoying it. But being a landlord never interested me. If I get sick of dealing with a certain stock, in a couple clicks I'm out of it forever. Plus some dividend aristocrats/kings are paying dividends these days that rival typical rental returns. I have REITs for the real estate itch.
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
is anyone watching the TVIX? even intraday movements?? Its insane. Im making crazy crazy amounts of money. Im talking six figures while I make a bagel in the morning level of insanity.
- Joined
- May 6, 2016
- Messages
- 519
- Reaction score
- 608
don't have the stomach for speculation...though i don't have the stomach to look at my major portfolio either ...
D
deleted314957
I like REIT’s. Vanguard total U.S. index and total world ex-U.S. And then never think about it. Zero hassles.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2015
- Messages
- 418
- Reaction score
- 200
I have a bottom indicator of which i'm certain.When toilet paper remains on store shelves we have bottomed.
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 539
- Reaction score
- 676
It looks like the US will be at 20k positive tests by the weekend.
This is partly due to increase in the overall number of tests being run, I also think the tests coming back positive right now reflect social behavior from 5-7 days ago. Folks weren’t socially isolating even around me this past weekend. In the last day or so it has changed around me quite a bit.
Looks like the Brooklyn Nets randomly tested the entire team - 4 players came back positive. I think this speaks to enormous numbers of asymptotic cases / spreaders..but hopefully herd immunity is also building.
Anyhow I predict 10k cases possibly today and soon after 20 k will Further spook investors and be really bad for most stocks / equities for another month or two.
Stick with highly capitalized companies and consumer staples for now. APPL checks the first box and had some properties of a consumer staple these days with increasing subscription services.
This is partly due to increase in the overall number of tests being run, I also think the tests coming back positive right now reflect social behavior from 5-7 days ago. Folks weren’t socially isolating even around me this past weekend. In the last day or so it has changed around me quite a bit.
Looks like the Brooklyn Nets randomly tested the entire team - 4 players came back positive. I think this speaks to enormous numbers of asymptotic cases / spreaders..but hopefully herd immunity is also building.
Anyhow I predict 10k cases possibly today and soon after 20 k will Further spook investors and be really bad for most stocks / equities for another month or two.
Stick with highly capitalized companies and consumer staples for now. APPL checks the first box and had some properties of a consumer staple these days with increasing subscription services.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2015
- Messages
- 418
- Reaction score
- 200
What about BERKSHIRE ? p.s-How irresponsible is the behavior of the college spring breakers ?
D
deleted915203
2020 Spring Breakers are about to get the Darwin Award.
D
deleted314957
“screw stocks....... I used my Guardant stock.......”. Hmm?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
- Joined
- May 6, 2016
- Messages
- 519
- Reaction score
- 608
- Joined
- May 6, 2016
- Messages
- 519
- Reaction score
- 608
Don't be a Brady.
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2010
- Messages
- 2,130
- Reaction score
- 1,032
Older people are the ones not listening where I am at. There are "screeners" at all the doorways and they don't seem to be cooperating real well. An 80 year old came in for a thyroid biopsy yesterday. I think I would have stayed home if I was him. There is literally nothing to do with elective procedures ending. This could drag on for a LONG time. Sucks to be looking for a job right now. Many of us may find ourselves on the unemployment line as well.
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2007
- Messages
- 1,701
- Reaction score
- 722
I have a pending job contract that was not withdrawn luckily. I will sign it as soon as possible. I received the offer before all of this panic. I was also offered an interview for a small hospital job in the next week or so. I consider myself lucky.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2007
- Messages
- 1,701
- Reaction score
- 722
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
up now near 1m on the TVIX from March 2 to now. Going for 2-3 more before the I reverse the engines and go triple long crude.
Triple long crude oil folks...ETFs selling for 23 cents that will easily zoom to 40+ bucks when this unwinds....
156 to 1.....
Triple long crude oil folks...ETFs selling for 23 cents that will easily zoom to 40+ bucks when this unwinds....
156 to 1.....
D
deleted314957
You cannot be real. Your talk is a losers game. I have watched my financial life drop about 25% down to just below 8 figures. I am not going to do jack! At my age, i’ve seen similar ****. I have been a department head officer on a ballistic missile submarine squadron and this is mildly scary for 95% of the population.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 539
- Reaction score
- 676
LA sometimes I am sure your f’in around a bit, sometimes I think your serious, sometimes I have no idea if your serious or not!?
also wouldn’t surprise me if a few months from now you say “what’s up guys my teenager took over my account some time ago. He/she knows enough about path and life to be dangerous but now I amback!!!!!”
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2015
- Messages
- 418
- Reaction score
- 200
I didn't mean to hit the like button.You may be correct.I bought some ERX on THURSDAY;however,i'm not sure being macho when others are suffering is cool.
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 539
- Reaction score
- 676
Not a big fan of the levered index funds or levered reverse index funds b/c of the high fees and daily calculation. Unless your a day trader you really can’t make the 2x or 3x long term even if your right without a lot trades along the way. Prefer trading call and put options...
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
I am 100% not Fing around. I was in a small trade in CBOE Volatility when Ronin Capital was liquidated with a margin call in the same thing. TVIX dropped from 985 all the way down to 450 before popping back up to 620. I too got a margin call, but paid up and road it back into the black by the end of the day. This is literally a once in multiple lifetimes trading opportunity.
Had I stayed with my prior wealth manager Instead of firing them on Feb 23rd when it was apparent to me this was kicking off, I would be down 40%? I think that firm just laid off 75% of their staff too....foresight ladies and gentlemen
Had I stayed with my prior wealth manager Instead of firing them on Feb 23rd when it was apparent to me this was kicking off, I would be down 40%? I think that firm just laid off 75% of their staff too....foresight ladies and gentlemen
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2003
- Messages
- 183
- Reaction score
- 67
Although the last few weeks have put a big dent in the argument of the financial charlatans who advocated for a "lazy" stock/bond portfolio, I see no reason to change the approach in my 401ks -- cheap index funds bought with my regular contributions. Might rebalance at the end of the month just because it's been a while, and it's probably time to start deploying some of the cash position I built up throughout 2019 (since everyone should have known that valuations were stretched and a pullback was coming).
Volatility is my alt asset class of choice. TVIX is OK to hold in spurts, in case you get lucky to catch the annual VIX spike, but for those of us who remember February 2018 know the risks of holding the ETNs directly. The best way of trading volatility is options, for various reasons. I've been short volatility for a while, but hedged with 20 delta OTM UVXY calls. Now I'm essentially even with a massive cash cushion to deploy on what could be the greatest short vol trade ever. Might do some LEAP puts on SPXS and TQQQ as well.
Volatility is my alt asset class of choice. TVIX is OK to hold in spurts, in case you get lucky to catch the annual VIX spike, but for those of us who remember February 2018 know the risks of holding the ETNs directly. The best way of trading volatility is options, for various reasons. I've been short volatility for a while, but hedged with 20 delta OTM UVXY calls. Now I'm essentially even with a massive cash cushion to deploy on what could be the greatest short vol trade ever. Might do some LEAP puts on SPXS and TQQQ as well.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
I agree the only people who hold TVIX long term are people who will eventually lose 90%+ of their investment. It is a radioactive, highly unstable financial instrument that kicks off maybe once every few years.
Disclaimer: I have never traded in "CBOE VIX sphere" and my first inclination was to buy March 20 exp calls on VXX BUT I have never traded options in my life. I have ZERO finance background, although Im now spending around 2-4 hours a day reading and catching up.
I completely agree with options tho, a March 20th VXX long call bought in Feb for a mere 12 cents would have been in the money this Friday to such a tremendous amount I would absolutely not be posting here, I would be in Bora Bora for the rest of my life.
You maybe more educated on this than myself, but short VIX trade ummm...when? If you are buying options you will have to call the recovery and therefore the tamping down of the VIX, how could you possibly do that? I can see about 100+ scenarios where the VIX abates to sub 50 only to roar back when some movie star or athlete inevitably dies of this. And watch the VIX when the big politicians start dropping, Joe Biden? Trump himself? Many of these guys arent the healthiest.
I think long oil is far better because it is under "double tension" from Saudi/Russia AND demand evaporation.
NOTE: But I preface this by saying Im a pathologist not a hedge fund account manager at Bridgewater Capital and I am not trained/experienced to give financial advice so please consult an investment professional before any portfolio readjustments from SDN postings.
Disclaimer: I have never traded in "CBOE VIX sphere" and my first inclination was to buy March 20 exp calls on VXX BUT I have never traded options in my life. I have ZERO finance background, although Im now spending around 2-4 hours a day reading and catching up.
I completely agree with options tho, a March 20th VXX long call bought in Feb for a mere 12 cents would have been in the money this Friday to such a tremendous amount I would absolutely not be posting here, I would be in Bora Bora for the rest of my life.
You maybe more educated on this than myself, but short VIX trade ummm...when? If you are buying options you will have to call the recovery and therefore the tamping down of the VIX, how could you possibly do that? I can see about 100+ scenarios where the VIX abates to sub 50 only to roar back when some movie star or athlete inevitably dies of this. And watch the VIX when the big politicians start dropping, Joe Biden? Trump himself? Many of these guys arent the healthiest.
I think long oil is far better because it is under "double tension" from Saudi/Russia AND demand evaporation.
NOTE: But I preface this by saying Im a pathologist not a hedge fund account manager at Bridgewater Capital and I am not trained/experienced to give financial advice so please consult an investment professional before any portfolio readjustments from SDN postings.
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2003
- Messages
- 183
- Reaction score
- 67
Bridgewater is down across the board for the year after Dalio told everyone "cash is trash" back in January. Hedge fund folk are as fallible as the rest of us. But yes, disclaimer: This is not for everyone. If you don't have the time to practice or the income to pay the market's tuition fees, save yourself the trouble and stick with target date funds.
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
Forget the TVIX now, the Feds just stepped in to crush it completely. RIP VIX trading for the remainder of this "crisis".
Still waiting on the alleged epic death toll, sitting on a whopping 4 in all of California Im feeling insanely underwhelmed all things considered.
V shaped recovery for SURE now so I would start getting back into the market going long chunk by chunk.
Still waiting on the alleged epic death toll, sitting on a whopping 4 in all of California Im feeling insanely underwhelmed all things considered.
V shaped recovery for SURE now so I would start getting back into the market going long chunk by chunk.
I agree. Load up on tech stocks. Oil is a big gamble at this point IMO.
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
Im almost done with the stock market...the game is completely rigged by all sensible limits.
Bill Ackman was allowed to go onto CNBC financial news during prime time and give an interview where he literally gets up choked up and cries about impending apocalypse and how "Hell is coming" only to have made 2.4 billion dollars in a short position at the same time. His buddies at a different hedge fund/private equity did the same thing the following day only to one-up Ackman by claiming "Hell is already here!"
Both interviews obliterated HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS EVEN TRILLIONS of dollars of company value and wealth for average hard working Americans, including many actually battling this virus and sick/dying patients.
Bernie Sanders is an old tired Communist, but on some key things he is absolutely dead on. We need a revolution, not an election.
In full disclosure: I have the mother of all short positions on the S&P and tomorrow is the jobs report (3/26/20). If I have nailed it, I will be wealthy by any yardstick, if I failed I stand to lose a literal fortune (and my brother stands to lose his entire net worth).
Bill Ackman was allowed to go onto CNBC financial news during prime time and give an interview where he literally gets up choked up and cries about impending apocalypse and how "Hell is coming" only to have made 2.4 billion dollars in a short position at the same time. His buddies at a different hedge fund/private equity did the same thing the following day only to one-up Ackman by claiming "Hell is already here!"
Both interviews obliterated HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS EVEN TRILLIONS of dollars of company value and wealth for average hard working Americans, including many actually battling this virus and sick/dying patients.
Bernie Sanders is an old tired Communist, but on some key things he is absolutely dead on. We need a revolution, not an election.
In full disclosure: I have the mother of all short positions on the S&P and tomorrow is the jobs report (3/26/20). If I have nailed it, I will be wealthy by any yardstick, if I failed I stand to lose a literal fortune (and my brother stands to lose his entire net worth).
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2010
- Messages
- 2,130
- Reaction score
- 1,032
I hope you guys will finally just buy rental properties, farmland and start businesses. You are a 1 percenter, now act like it.
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2007
- Messages
- 1,701
- Reaction score
- 722
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
- 2,801
- Reaction score
- 1,186
Well, property values will come down dramatically and give us lots of opportunity to buy soon. Either COVID-19 cleans out a lot of owners directly, or there is a flood of forclosures.
I know a lot of people with businesses right now that are at risk of losing it all. Rental properties will likely hold up - although tenants are going to skip paying rent and you likely won't be able to evict them during this. And there's no valuable farmland anywhere near me, and what there is is likely owned by mega-farm corporations. Nothing is safe in this environment. Overall I'm fairly certain market indices will eventually come back up. Small businesses may go completely belly-up.
Not likely.
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2004
- Messages
- 7,132
- Reaction score
- 1,250
Getting killed atm, retirement is looking officially off the table for now....The Federal reserve is literally making the entire market, no fundamentals, no concern whatsoever consumer demand is going to zero and no clue that on the coastal areas the 1200 buck stimulus will eaten by just rent and food instantly.
Starbucks, leisure travel, new cars, upgraded homes are a thing of the past.
The thieves who engineered this crisis will remain wealthy, living on vast estates with income in tropical countries well hidden. No way to compete with mf'ers who have the power move a 50 trillion dollar capital market to be able to carve out $2.4 billion for themselves with just a 17 minute interview....
We are all suckers at the end of this. Going to get drunk. Peace out.
Starbucks, leisure travel, new cars, upgraded homes are a thing of the past.
The thieves who engineered this crisis will remain wealthy, living on vast estates with income in tropical countries well hidden. No way to compete with mf'ers who have the power move a 50 trillion dollar capital market to be able to carve out $2.4 billion for themselves with just a 17 minute interview....
We are all suckers at the end of this. Going to get drunk. Peace out.
PROPS to those who SHORTED THE MARKET IN LATE FEBRUARY. I SHOULD HAVE done this but didnt. HUGE MISTAKE!
I think the current rally is a RELIEF RALLY. THERE IS MORE PAIN TO COME.
The few weeks are can be summed up like this:
NEVER FIGHT THE FED.
SELL THE GOOD NEWS.
BUY THE BAD NEWS.
SELL THE BAD RUMOR.
BUY THE GOOD RUMOR.
If this turns out to be a 2 YEAR ORDEAL where we shut down almost all discretionary spending, the economy AND financial markets will GO TO HELL. COMPANIES ARE WAY OVERLEVERED AND HAVE TERRIBLE BALANCE SHEETS THANKS TO A DECADE OF CHEAP MONEY POLICY BY THE FED.
I think the current rally is a RELIEF RALLY. THERE IS MORE PAIN TO COME.
The few weeks are can be summed up like this:
NEVER FIGHT THE FED.
SELL THE GOOD NEWS.
BUY THE BAD NEWS.
SELL THE BAD RUMOR.
BUY THE GOOD RUMOR.
If this turns out to be a 2 YEAR ORDEAL where we shut down almost all discretionary spending, the economy AND financial markets will GO TO HELL. COMPANIES ARE WAY OVERLEVERED AND HAVE TERRIBLE BALANCE SHEETS THANKS TO A DECADE OF CHEAP MONEY POLICY BY THE FED.
D
deleted314957
What the f*** do you expect when you SPECULATE against a cohort of experts who do this all the time. I have not touched a dime of my investments and I have no more than a 20% loss. Maybe because I have seen this s*** more than most (my age).
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
In the valley of the blind, the one eyed man is king !
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2006
- Messages
- 2,801
- Reaction score
- 1,186
How dare the fed not consider your bet against the market?
My thinking is that the bad news was already priced in. I started buying in on Friday. I have been hit pretty badly overall, but if I hit the bottom, then I will be feeling pretty good again in a few months.
My thinking is your bet was bad to begin with. The market crashed on people staying home for 2 weeks? That was already an overreaction. The fundamentals of the economy are still there: the demands for goods and services did not dry up because of an internal market force but a temporary external one. If this continues indefinitely, then yes, our current system is hosed. But if life gets back to normal in a month? What happens then? If the companies who furlough their employees don't default on rent or loans because of government intervention, don't they rehire their workforce? I'm sure it won't be the same as before and will take time to return, but what is the outcome?
I'm sure the economy will recover. But I'm not sure at all we've hit bottom yet. Our infection/death curves are still in the exponential growth phase of the chart, and we've only just begun locking down a small percentage of counties/states. To me that implies we're just starting, and from what we've seen in countries that are in later phases this is a 2-3 month (at least) process. I still believe many smaller companies or even large companies with large debts are going to start defaulting and everything has further to fall. I'm still about half exposed to equities but took some big losses on the other half and holding in cash for now. I plan to revisit in a month or so, and will likely only buy very safe stocks/index ETFs for now or do some small day trades.
