I think you will do well in this cycle and I think your list is good. Just one minor point, I don't really think your "reaches" and "matches" categories are all that well defined. For example, UWashington is an incredibly competitive program to get into (I would argue more competitive than some of the schools on your reach list, such as WashU and Chicago). There are also some other schools I can say the same thing about. Anyhow, this is not a major point, as long as you apply broadly, which it seems like you are doing. Just don't think very rigidly about matches/reaches/safeties/etc. This cycle surprised the heck out of me.