Wow it really plays that big a factor just by applying a couple months after admissions window open? Maybe I will reconsider not applying at all and take a gap year to build my resume if thats the case.
It plays that big a factor no matter when you apply. Keep this in mind for the QR section of the DAT. And also in life, because nothing is more important than understanding probabilities.
Suppose you hit 18 on the DAT, with nothing below 17. Just a hair above average test-taker, and right where they start to give out interviews.
Okay, let's pair that with a 3.6sGPA. Assume you have average ECs since you only mentioned your shadowing.
That profile makes you an okay applicant for public IS admissions and privates. OOS publics and pickier schools are gonna be a struggle.
So let's say you're in-state for VCU and throw in a bunch of typical private schools.
So maybe you have a 1 in 8 chance of landing each interview. That would be 12.5 percent, and your chances of rejection given n comparable schools will be (1-.125)^n or .875^n.
Apply to:
1 school -> 12.5% chance of an interview
5 schools -> 49% chance of an interview
10 schools -> 74% chance of an interview
15 schools -> 86.5% chance of an interview
Obviously, this is just a model with arbitrary starting numbers (could be 1 in 8, 1 in 6, 1 in 10, etc), but the calculations reveal the issue with applying to just one.
That still applies even if you get a 20 on the DAT.