I did AF FAP for IM so your mileage may vary. The recruiter should have access to a list of how many slots are funded for each specialty per year. He also told me that time plays a role, so the faster you get in the better your chances as there is a rolling admit component after they start meeting. There is an interview which plays a big role, and that person has to sign off. At the end though, a significant number of FAP slots go unfilled, but are already funded, so they will shift slots to other specialties if the applicant pool doesn't match.
As far as the medical waiver, it really is black or white. If you get the waiver it doesn't affect anything. For the interview, when asked why I wanted to join, I mentioned the service aspect as part of it, and apparently that was his litmus test.
Overall, if you matched, you probably have a pretty decent chance. If FAP fails, just direct commission. They are hurting for doctors so badly as long as you're boarded you're golden from what I hear.
