As Per Usual, MCAT And GPA Means For Applicants/Matriculants Increased This Year

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tekkenman11

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From AAMC: https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/factstablea16.pdf

How much will this change by the end of this cycle? Interesingly, it doesn't seem like we will have a increase in applicants this year despite schools telling prospective candidates that they have received more applications than normal. Why is there this discrepancy between their word and the actual numbers? Also, this shows that there are already a couple hundred more matriculants this year than in 2016, despite having "fewer" applicants.

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More people applying to more schools than last year
 
More people applying to more schools than last year

That's what I thought this entire time but if you look at the numbers they've given to us that's not true. There's also like less than 3 weeks for deadlines (and AMCAS is closed) so unless there's 3000 people who will send applications in that time I think there's a discrepancy. You have some schools saying "we got thousands of more applicants this year" at interviews or in emails but where is that reflected?
 
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I like to think these tiny creep ups are negligible. Otherwise I'll just dissolve into tears at how I'm not applying for another year and a half and numbers might be even higher then.
 
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I wonder how this will change as the cycle winds down and we see end-of-cycle matriculant data incorporated into the set.
 
I dont get how they can find the matriculant average for the entire 2017-18 cycle since there are still 3 more months of interviews and waitlist acceptances can extend until orientation.... A ton more acceptances have yet to go out
 
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I like to think these tiny creep ups are negligible. Otherwise I'll just dissolve into tears at how I'm not applying for another year and a half and numbers might be even higher then.
I know right.. the average is gonna be like 512/3.75
 
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I know right.. the average is gonna be like 512/3.75
Its funny because the mean science GPA for matriculants is in the 3.6 range right now.....so there is hope if you applied this cycle with a 3.5 or 3.6. ( Even though people on here will say that's a low gpa for med school, it's actually just borderline).
 
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As someone who was trying to get into med school for years, tracking stats, etc I can totally admit that every year you see small increases in stats and they get significant overtime so a year may not make a GIANT difference but I guarantee you within a year or two the mean for matriculants will be between a 512 and 513 people are figuring out how to beat the MCAT like they did the old one
 
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It will go down, its only December.....some schools haven't even admitted anyone yet....my guess is the MCAT for actual matriculants will stay 507-509 range. There are plenty of high stat applicants that don't get accepted every year. The more I think about it the more I wonder if adcoms just want to see a >500 with each section balanced with atleast 125. Adcoms have said they want scores consistent with doing well on boards and after the balanced 500 mark the odds don't change all that much. A good motto is to not worry about impressing with a score, rather, make sure you meet thresholds so you aren't outright rejected based on a score.

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^^ I have to argue against that, I have seen countless people meet the threshold and not get accepted but I have never seen a person with a 514 or higher not get in SOMEWHERE.......that average will go up once the schools who haven't accepted anyone yet do so. Especially MD schools that are IVY league
 
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^^ I have to argue against that, I have seen countless people meet the threshold and not get accepted but I have never seen a person with a 514 or higher not get in SOMEWHERE.......that average will go up once the schools who haven't accepted anyone yet do so. Especially MD schools that are IVY league
I agree with you for IVY and research heavy schools. However, there are so many other dynamics that are essential to being a physician that are just not possible to assess based on one test score.

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I agree with you for IVY and research heavy schools. However, there are so many other dynamics that are essential to being a physician that are just not possible to assess based on one test score.

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I used to think that too! then I started the app cycle and while I agree the person themselves really indicates whether they will be a good physician or not I also learned that truthfully gpa and MCAT matter much more than anything else in admissions and just because you meet the screen means nothing the score and gpa have to be head turning first unless you have an INCREDIBLE backstory and even then you may get no love. If you know the mean work to be higher than it trust me it'll be to your benefit
 
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I used to think that too! then I started the app cycle and while I agree the person themselves really indicates whether they will be a good physician or not I also learned that truthfully gpa and MCAT matter much more than anything else in admissions and just because you meet the screen means nothing the score and gpa have to be head turning first unless you have an INCREDIBLE backstory and even then you may get no love. If you know the mean work to be higher than it trust me it'll be to your benefit
Schools get so many applicants that have higher numbers than their thresholds...they are looking for fit along with the basic numbers, thats how they can effectively narrow the pool of applicants who all have higher numbers than their thresholds. This is validated when you look at the wide range of the IQR of the MCAT accepted numbers by each school in MSAR. It is only not the case at IVYs and big research programs.

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Schools get so many applicants that have higher numbers than their thresholds...they are looking for fit along with the basic numbers, thats how they can effectively narrow the pool of applicants who all have higher numbers than their thresholds. This is validated when you look at the wide range of the IQR of the MCAT accepted numbers by each school in MSAR. It is only not the case at IVYs and big research programs.

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Did you take the MCAT yet and apply yet? it says pre-medical on your status....I'm guessing you haven't applied yet right?
 
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Did you take the MCAT yet and apply yet? it says pre-medical on your status....I'm guessing you haven't applied yet right?
It doesn't make statistical sense to make a judgement based on small sample size, whether that be me, you, individual adcom insights, or the whole SDN community. The only statistically significant non-biased sample size we have is the data from thousands of applicants in MSAR. The question is, how do we correctly interpet that together as a team?

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It doesn't make statistical sense to make a judgement based on small sample size, whether that be me, you, individual adcom insights, or the whole SDN community. The only statistically significant non-biased sample size we have is the data from thousands of applicants in MSAR. The question is, how do we correctly interpet that together as a team?

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You can believe what you want but I think any ADCOM will tell you that while these numbers aren't concrete as all acceptances haven't been given out, it does ride the current trend of MCAT and GPA increasing each year and to say that just meeting the threshold is good is not an option if one wants to get INTO med school. Most schools send a secondary because its easy $$ after that your app sits in the pile for months after an initial prescreen of "oh they meet the threshold, hold it for later" and the head turning MCAT and GPAs get the interviews. Sure you hear about some lower MCAT and GPAs getting in but theres usually extenuating circumstances so to say this data needs to be interpreted differently is something I can't agree on. Essentially think of it this way, mean for this year is around a 509-510 right? then you should be hoping for a 515 on the MCAT or higher for MD and the reason why I say that is because most people do slightly worse on the real thing so because of that you'll end up with a 512/513 and that is in range of acceptance.....all of this "what makes a good doctor" comes AFTER they look for the high MCAT and GPA.

Basically look at the numbers and aim for higher because if you don't apply this year rest assured the numbers will go up and you will want to be in the running regardless of when you apply. Don't get me wrong I love the whole pre-med enthusiasm but Im just saying what I wish someone had said to me. At the end of the day when you take the MCAT and apply you will see what Im talking about....most reapplicants can attest to what I've said
 
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The mean will go down a bit once the cycle is actually over. Most of the matriculants right now are the people with strong stats who applied early, wait for the people with average stats to get accepted off of the waitlist to see what the actual mean will be for the year.
 
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^^ I have to argue against that, I have seen countless people meet the threshold and not get accepted but I have never seen a person with a 514 or higher not get in SOMEWHERE.......that average will go up once the schools who haven't accepted anyone yet do so. Especially MD schools that are IVY league
Please do not engage in the sin of solipcism. Not too long ago we rejected two people with 514+ scores.

I think from the AAMC data sets here in SDN, that some 15-20% of very high MCAT scorers don't get into med school. Can someone dig up the numbers?
 
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These are not "incomplete" or "small sample" numbers from the current cycle. Per past AAMC stats, "2017-2018" refers to the first full year of matriculation for the class that applied spring 2017; entered fall 2017. The numbers in this table are the complete numbers from the last full cycle, so while there was a drop in apps from 2016 to 2017, there might well have been an increase in apps during the current cycle - as many schools like to tells us when they're giving us the big R.
 
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so basically the people who ask in the interview about how the local bar scene is.

idk why aamc would publish mid-cycle. going to drop, question is by how much.

also applications are down??? by 3%??? is this fewer marginal stat hail mary because of recovering economy?

Actually, average stats have simply returned closer to their pre 2015 MCAT levels. There was a drop in the average stats last cycle due to a very large number of people applying with non competitive scores (likely due to AAMCs insistence that 500 was indeed good enough to qualify for med school which —however true — does not represent the level of selectivity of many if not most MD programs). Haven’t had a chance to take a closer look at the numbers, but I bet that has something to do with it
 
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