If a program switches from the traditional route to the I6 it would take at least 3-4 years for them to completely eliminate the traditional route after starting the I6 because the new trainees starting the I6 program would have to be in general surgery training for 3-4 years. It may be a while longer before the traditional route is eliminated if at all. There seems to be a lot of push back against the I6.
I'm not saying it will be eliminated entirely, but this is already happening now...this isn't theory. My friends interviewing this year are bummed that some traditional powerhouses didn't enter the match, and several programs they did interview at are dropping next year.
If you're at the medical student phase and serious about CT I'd 110% advise to go the integrated route.
I just got back from SCVS, there were multiple presentations on the trends in integrated vascular (IVS), this was followed by discussion by some of the biggest names in Vascular regarding their programs (Dan Claire (CCF), Makaroun (UPMC) etc.). This is what I gleaned and has been confirmed being on the residency side of 3 matches now.
#1 There is always push back from the older surgeons when you change things. It will never change.
#2 IVS and I6 CT are here to stay. You can not compare the traditional GS+fellowship applicants with the integrated applicants. Completely different board scores, completely different research profiles, completely different drive. Yes, the top fellowships have amazing fellows, but there simply aren't enough quality people finishing 5 years of GS and saying, "Lets do 2 more years of vascular".
#3 Not everywhere is ready for integrated residents. You have to be skeptical about brand new programs. There is a HUGE mentality shift from, "We need to polish someone with 5 years of surgical experience." to "We need to turn an MS4 into a vascular surgeon." People drastically under estimate what this means in terms of dedication to residents and their education.
#4 Traditional pathway will always exist. Big programs like CCF, UPMC, Houston Methodist, Wash U. will keep their fellowships along side their integrated residencies. Some will run parallel, some will fill in gaps created by people spending differing amounts of time in the lab, but spots are always going to exist. The number of spots will gradually decrease, but if the demand exists, fellowship spots will exist.
It's much harder to hide than you'd think. You can't hide your research. And a lot of LOR writers will inadvertently give it away.
That's why as he said the stronger your CT app, the weaker your GS - because you can't hide the obvious interest in CT
With proper planning, you can minimize this. It requires foresight and the buy-in of your letter writers. While it would be difficult to have an extremely strong GS application, there is no reason a strong student shouldn't have a very competitive application. But yes, it does put you in an awkward spot.
I have heard conflicting messages about the wisdom of applying to both integrated CT and general at the same institution. Is this considered poor form? General surgery residency is (for now) a possible pathway into CT surg, but I also understand that the general application would in this case scream "backup." I guess the more important question is, would it help a little, not help at all, or hurt?
Do not apply to both. If GS is paying attention at all, they will ask I6 if they got an application and just toss yours out. After the last couple of seasons, it is extremely rare for someone to get interviews with both programs.