 Nov 2, 2019
 920
 3,271
 Status

 Resident [Any Field]
I figured this deserved its own thread, since I had faculty throw the "we don't know who's retiring" argument at me just last week (implying people are leaving the specialty fast enough to offset people joining the specialty).
A poster from ASTRO 2020 looked at patterns of retirement among Radiation Oncologists:
Salient points:
The worst part about this? The >64 year old workforce are all from the preexpansion years. The massive expansion in residency numbers are from the last 20 years, meaning, if they followed the traditional path, the earliest expansion doctors should be ~52 years old (enter medical school between 2224, graduate at 2628, finish RadOnc residency 3133, +20 years = 5153 years old). Even the nontrads are usually <40 when finishing residency.
So essentially we're now being squeezed from both ends? Since this data is from 20062017 it does not take into account the current COVID crisis, but it does catch the financial crisis of 2008, which might explain decreased retirement (otherwise, I'm not really sure why the Boomers are hanging on...other than greed).
I know I posted this in the Twitter thread, but here's a second poster which shows the number of RadOnc Fellows has increased from 20 to 42 per year:
So for those playing along at home, we have:
1) 127% increase in the number of RadOnc residencies
2) 110% increase in the number of RadOnc fellows
3) 5% increase in the number of practicing RadOncs delaying retirement
...and of course, decreased utilization (hypofrac), decreased supervision requirements, decreased reimbursement (Alternative Payment Model).
Let's see what the ARRO panels and Terry Wall data look like!
A poster from ASTRO 2020 looked at patterns of retirement among Radiation Oncologists:
Salient points:
The worst part about this? The >64 year old workforce are all from the preexpansion years. The massive expansion in residency numbers are from the last 20 years, meaning, if they followed the traditional path, the earliest expansion doctors should be ~52 years old (enter medical school between 2224, graduate at 2628, finish RadOnc residency 3133, +20 years = 5153 years old). Even the nontrads are usually <40 when finishing residency.
So essentially we're now being squeezed from both ends? Since this data is from 20062017 it does not take into account the current COVID crisis, but it does catch the financial crisis of 2008, which might explain decreased retirement (otherwise, I'm not really sure why the Boomers are hanging on...other than greed).
I know I posted this in the Twitter thread, but here's a second poster which shows the number of RadOnc Fellows has increased from 20 to 42 per year:
So for those playing along at home, we have:
1) 127% increase in the number of RadOnc residencies
2) 110% increase in the number of RadOnc fellows
3) 5% increase in the number of practicing RadOncs delaying retirement
...and of course, decreased utilization (hypofrac), decreased supervision requirements, decreased reimbursement (Alternative Payment Model).
Let's see what the ARRO panels and Terry Wall data look like!