- Joined
- Dec 18, 2015
- Messages
- 3,216
- Reaction score
- 4,930
Here is the most thorough rundown of "The Numbers" I have yet seen for U.S. radiation oncology. In red I am citing approximate numbers I have seen cited, and I have previously cited, by other reliable sources previously published (on web or in journals etc).
Number of patients getting XRT in 2020:
1,062,600
Rate of increase of new patients getting XRT/year since 2006: 1%
Rate of increase of new doctors treating w/ XRT/year since 2006: ~4%
Number of NEWLY dx patients getting XRT in 2020:
~580,000
Number of new dx ca patients in 2020:
~1,800,000
Estimated incidence of treatment by rad onc on non-newly dx patients on average in 2020: ((1062600-580000)/1062600) = 45%
Average length of treatment in 2010: 4.5 weeks
Average length of treatment in 2020: 3.2 weeks
Number of external beam units in the U.S.: 3770
Number of radiation therapy centers/sites in U.S.: 2280
Sites with IGRT in 2004 vs 2020: 15% vs 90%
The narrative here that the impact of COVID on departments' volumes or $capital$ seems to contradict the story ASTRO has been telling CMS. (The truth is often in the middle!) Also note for the first time I have seen officially documented the drop in fractions and average treatment time over the last 10 years. Unless there's some magic at play that I don't understand (the rate of increase of patients treated with XRT only increasing 1%/year), this would have to mean linacs are less busy (in pure patients/day) in 2020 vs 2010; with more complex/longer treatments, it may or may not mean they're actually less utilized on a pure time basis.
Finally, with ~1 million patients/year getting XRT, and ~5200 rad oncs, would estimate the average TOTAL new starts/year/rad onc in the U.S. to be ~200 (of which ~120 would be newly dx for the year patients).
Number of patients getting XRT in 2020:
1,062,600
Rate of increase of new patients getting XRT/year since 2006: 1%
Rate of increase of new doctors treating w/ XRT/year since 2006: ~4%
Number of NEWLY dx patients getting XRT in 2020:
~580,000
Number of new dx ca patients in 2020:
~1,800,000
Estimated incidence of treatment by rad onc on non-newly dx patients on average in 2020: ((1062600-580000)/1062600) = 45%
Average length of treatment in 2010: 4.5 weeks
Average length of treatment in 2020: 3.2 weeks
Number of external beam units in the U.S.: 3770
Number of radiation therapy centers/sites in U.S.: 2280
Sites with IGRT in 2004 vs 2020: 15% vs 90%
The narrative here that the impact of COVID on departments' volumes or $capital$ seems to contradict the story ASTRO has been telling CMS. (The truth is often in the middle!) Also note for the first time I have seen officially documented the drop in fractions and average treatment time over the last 10 years. Unless there's some magic at play that I don't understand (the rate of increase of patients treated with XRT only increasing 1%/year), this would have to mean linacs are less busy (in pure patients/day) in 2020 vs 2010; with more complex/longer treatments, it may or may not mean they're actually less utilized on a pure time basis.
Finally, with ~1 million patients/year getting XRT, and ~5200 rad oncs, would estimate the average TOTAL new starts/year/rad onc in the U.S. to be ~200 (of which ~120 would be newly dx for the year patients).
