CA pharmacists: What's going to happen in the next three years?

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.

steveysmith54

Member
15+ Year Member
Joined
Dec 29, 2005
Messages
2,351
Reaction score
1,406
Chapman, KGI, and CHSU will graduate their first class in 2018.
WestCoast and Ketchum will graduate in 2019.

Please correct me if these dates are wrong. Main point is saturation got significantly worse when Loma Linda, UCSD, and Touro joined the party in 2008-2009. We have FIVE more schools knocking on the door.

I can guarantee that most of these graduates will desire to stay in CA (mostly LA/OC/Bay Area). Perhaps first couple of graduating classes can be stashed away in some rural areas. But, then what?

Members don't see this ad.
 
No OTs. No jobs... Look at job opening at retail level in SD, LA, OC, SF it's rather pathetic... They mostly hire their own interns now to replace turn over.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
No jobs. My hospital has 2 per diems open with already filled candidates and we received nearly 120 applications.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
Pay loan off before that. I should be clear by then. I won't care for OT with no loan payment. The money we make hourly is enough.
 
Pay loan off before that. I should be clear by then. I won't care for OT with no loan payment. The money we make hourly is enough.

I agree. OT and second jobs become old after 5 yrs of working or so. I am just wondering what the unemployment or failure to find full time work will be like for the new grads, if wages will be effected, and what the chains will do to their pharmacists (might be a scary thought for those of us who worked for chains)...
 
I agree. OT and second jobs become old after 5 yrs of working or so. I am just wondering what the unemployment or failure to find full time work will be like for the new grads, if wages will be effected, and what the chains will do to their pharmacists (might be a scary thought for those of us who worked for chains)...

My guess is it would be similar to what's happening in FL and now in GA, NC, SC, and TN -- the new grads will either have to move to wherever there are still jobs (the midwest, northern states like ND/SD, and the last few pockets of areas with pharmacist demand in rural AL, MS, LA), or they won't work. I wonder how many of them will end up returning to school to become PAs or NPs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
My guess is it would be similar to what's happening in FL and now in GA, NC, SC, and TN -- the new grads will either have to move to wherever there are still jobs (the midwest, northern states like ND/SD, and the last few pockets of areas with pharmacist demand in rural AL, MS, LA), or they won't work. I wonder how many of them will end up returning to school to become PAs or NPs.
Only one part of CA left where OT is all over the place. That'll get eaten up soon and i'm going to take it as long as I can before its gone. Last year I almost made 80K just in OT and with raises this year i'm going to pass that. Just eat it up while you can before there will be be 40 hour weeks and 8 hour shifts. Yuck
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Only one part of CA left where OT is all over the place. That'll get eaten up soon and i'm going to take it as long as I can before its gone. Last year I almost made 80K just in OT and with raises this year i'm going to pass that. Just eat it up while you can before there will be be 40 hour weeks and 8 hour shifts. Yuck

Even if I stay in pharmacy school, I will be far too late to the party to even have a chance of earning OT. 60-80% of pharmacists in my graduating class (2020) will be unemployed. Glad I won't have to worry about it. There just won't be enough spots for them all. It will be interesting to see how hard the job market tanks when the c/o 2017 graduates in a couple months.
 
Even if I stay in pharmacy school, I will be far too late to the party to even have a chance of earning OT. 60-80% of pharmacists in my graduating class (2020) will be unemployed. Glad I won't have to worry about it. There just won't be enough spots for them all. It will be interesting to see how hard the job market tanks when the c/o 2017 graduates in a couple months.
More grads, meanwhile CVS has closed some stores, Rite Aid is supposed to close some when they merger to Walgreens. We've been talking about it for years that Pharmacy is doomed. I think that time comes around 2019-2020 where it will be a huge struggle to find a job anywhere.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
The annoying part is that my company is somehow "short on pharmacists" in my area. I guess WM is seen as undesirable compared to Kaiser and/or WM is very picky on hiring (haha not true; they hired me). Most new hires are so-called experienced pharmacists.

In 2015 three new grads were hired, 2016 one (!), 2017 probably zero
 
You're not taking into consideration the out of state pharmacy students that were originally from CA that want to return back home to work here + the people that are out of state wanting to move to CA as vtrx stated ............................................................................... :boom:
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
You're not taking into consideration the out of state pharmacy students that were originally from CA that want to return back home to work here + the people that are out of state wanting to move to CA as vtrx stated ............................................................................... :boom:

a lot of students didn't not want to Move to out of state or take pcat... this is why we had students who had to reapply several time to get into a school in cali... this opened the gate to students who need to stay in California...these five new school took in less than stellar students... yeah you can also count the out of state students if you want, i focus on new schools bc it's more visible to the eye...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
The annoying part is that my company is somehow "short on pharmacists" in my area. I guess WM is seen as undesirable compared to Kaiser and/or WM is very picky on hiring (haha not true; they hired me). Most new hires are so-called experienced pharmacists.

In 2015 three new grads were hired, 2016 one (!), 2017 probably zero

I think they are just trying to keep their pay roll to a minimum
 
Members don't see this ad :)
The top 10% (like...8 graduates?) will match, displacing the marginal candidates from the established schools.

The remaining top quartile will do well in the job market. The bottom 75% will (with some exceptions) have to walk on water to displace others from established programs in the market.

Everyone else will be in underemployed purgatory.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile app
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
The top 10% (like...8 graduates?) will match, displacing the marginal candidates from the established schools.

The remaining top quartile will do well in the job market. The bottom 75% will (with some exceptions) have to walk on water to displace others from established programs in the market.

Everyone else will be in underemployed purgatory.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile app

So in general, you agree with the projections from the HRSA and BLS that ~65%-75% of pharmacy graduates will be unemployed (or stuck with PRN gigs at the most)?
 
So in general, you agree with the projections from the HRSA and BLS that ~65%-75% of pharmacy graduates will be unemployed (or stuck with PRN gigs at the most)?

It'll be a de facto residency...a year (or more) of underemployment, floating, and doing odd jobs until the stars align.

I think the five year trend for a cohort will trend toward a 5% unemployment rate/25% underemployment rate.

But what's underemployment? 39hrs/week is underemployment to me.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile app
 
It'll be a de facto residency...a year (or more) of underemployment, floating, and doing odd jobs until the stars align.

I think the five year trend for a cohort will trend toward a 5% unemployment rate/25% underemployment rate.

But what's underemployment? 39hrs/week is underemployment to me.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile app

I know that nobody can predict the future, but a 5% unemployment rate sounds a little optimistic. The HRSA predicts anywhere from 56k to almost 70k more pharmacists than jobs; I believe that will be close to half the workforce, unless there is a massive increase in the annual retirement rate or the job market expands (e.g., caused by provider status or something else that has no chance of ever becoming reality).
 
It'll be a de facto residency...a year (or more) of underemployment, floating, and doing odd jobs until the stars align.

I think the five year trend for a cohort will trend toward a 5% unemployment rate/25% underemployment rate.

But what's underemployment? 39hrs/week is underemployment to me.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile app

In LA, even most staff RPh are getting ~36 hrs at CVS, stores just aren't allocated full time hours anymore. I would consider underemployment at 36 hrs or less. Maybe even 32 hours.

I would predict 10% unemployment and 30 percent underemployed by 2020... Then for the rate to increase by 1-2 percent every year unless a significant event occurs to sway employment in either direction.
 
I would predict 10% unemployment and 30 percent underemployed by 2020... Then for the rate to increase by 1-2 percent every year unless a significant event occurs to sway employment in either direction.

I would assume that some people would retrain for different jobs or find a non-pharmacy job rather than the unemployment rate creeping up steadily - unless we're defining unemployment specifically in the context of new grad unemployment rather for the entire profession (e.g. along the lines of number of new pharmacy grads unable to find employment within one year of graduation).
 
I would assume that some people would retrain for different jobs or find a non-pharmacy job rather than the unemployment rate creeping up steadily - unless we're defining unemployment specifically in the context of new grad unemployment rather for the entire profession (e.g. along the lines of number of new pharmacy grads unable to find employment within one year of graduation).

That could be another way of looking at it -- what will the attrition rate be among established (I.e., non-new grads) pharmacists starting in a year or two? I wonder if we'll see more of them go back to school to become PAs or dentists.
 
No job mobility, no job, no OT or second job, stagnant wage, underemployment, terrible working condition. If you can't put up with the employer's demands, there are plenty of pharmacist who are hungrier to do the job for less.

My hospital job is union, but I've seen plenty of people trying to get in for benefits, pay, and job security. I think it's going to be harder to find a hospital job without residency. CVS is already cut pharmacist hours, giving more tasks to do, and with the increase saturation, I can see them make life miserable for all pharmacists just to increase their profits.
 
USC graduated pharmacists with PGY-3 and 400k in student loans will have to settle working as techs for pharmacists that didn't a residency and have no student loans.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
People will simply have to move out of state, there's just no other way around it. Nobody can afford to be unemployed/part-time with 6 figure debt, it'd just be financial suicide to not leave the state.

Sure some people will get hired through their internship connections, and the best students will get a nice residency, but there's no way around the fact that supply>demand.
 
That could be another way of looking at it -- what will the attrition rate be among established (I.e., non-new grads) pharmacists starting in a year or two? I wonder if we'll see more of them go back to school to become PAs or dentists.

Career retraining for licensed professions is not normative given the opportunity costs involved. If someone wanted to go to dental school, he/she should have figured it out in the first place.
 
Career retraining for licensed professions is not normative given the opportunity costs involved. If someone wanted to go to dental school, he/she should have figured it out in the first place.

Especially in California. Are these USC grads going to take out 400k in USC loans plus another 300-400k in dental school loans?
 
People will simply have to move out of state, there's just no other way around it. Nobody can afford to be unemployed/part-time with 6 figure debt, it'd just be financial suicide to not leave the state.

Sure some people will get hired through their internship connections, and the best students will get a nice residency, but there's no way around the fact that supply>demand.

I used to think so too, then I witnessed student going on loan forgiveness programs....
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I used to think so too, then I witnessed student going on loan forgiveness programs....

It seems to me that a lot of the students from CA would rather default on their loans than move out of state or even within 1 hour from the SF, LA, or OC areas.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
It seems to me that a lot of the students from CA would rather default on their loans than move out of state or even within 1 hour from the SF, LA, or OC areas.

Yes this is very true based on the California pharmacy school threads that I read. It is amazing how many people 'can't leave California due to family reasons.'
The solution to crushing USC debt is to work at Dairy Queen for 20 years while on loan forgiveness.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I thought you had to work for the government or something to get loans forgiven? Like become a teacher or something... plus if you let them default I don't think they will forgive it until you make the minimum number of payments, and as a teacher I literally don't even think you could make the minimum payment.

I don't know, it's just not something that I've researched because I'd rather just pay it off in 3-4 years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Yeah pretty much if I were a new grad and SHTF, I'd go find a clerical job in city/state government and PSLF my way out. Maybe pick up some per-diem work that I'd have to commute 2 hours to do every other weekend.
 
REPAYE and IBR are other types of repayment plans that are available and aren't restricted to those working in the "public sector" (or non-profits).
 
I can understand why people want to live in SF/LA/SD so much, but that area is too saturated. I live in central cal, make >$200k/year. We have tons of openings and no one wants to get that $$ here at all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I can understand why people want to live in SF/LA/SD so much, but that area is too saturated. I live in central cal, make >$200k/year. We have tons of openings and no one wants to get that $$ here at all.

Just curious what is your area of practice in pharmacy and what specific cities are you referencing to?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I can understand why people want to live in SF/LA/SD so much, but that area is too saturated. I live in central cal, make >$200k/year. We have tons of openings and no one wants to get that $$ here at all.
Just wait 2 yrs until the new schools come to you, I already made all the OTs I want :) been working 8.5 yrs OT, no more of that sh1t. You new grads can fight for OTs, I'll just get 40h and not an extra shift more LOL
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Yes this is very true based on the California pharmacy school threads that I read. It is amazing how many people 'can't leave California due to family reasons.'
The solution to crushing USC debt is to work at Dairy Queen for 20 years while on loan forgiveness.
Wow, I didn't know this. Which threads are they? I'm curious...
 
Just wait 2 yrs until the new schools come to you, I already made all the OTs I want :) been working 8.5 yrs OT, no more of that sh1t. You new grads can fight for OTs, I'll just get 40h and not an extra shift more LOL

I started pulling back on OT this year. The 1.5x/2x is nice for a while, but I think I'm good with my 40hrs and done.

But now I'm eyeing a vacation home so.... hmmm
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I started pulling back on OT this year. The 1.5x/2x is nice for a while, but I think I'm good with my 40hrs and done.

But now I'm eyeing a vacation home so.... hmmm
Yeah same here. Right now i'm pulling 55 hour week pretty much. Once loan is paid off i'm going to start to lean back. I've been doing 55-60 hour weeks consistently since I started. 40 will feel like part time lol I can't wait
 
I started pulling back on OT this year. The 1.5x/2x is nice for a while, but I think I'm good with my 40hrs and done.

But now I'm eyeing a vacation home so.... hmmm

I'm feeling that same itch. 20 hours/month at my side gig goes straight into the savings accounts and now I'm shaving a few hundred off of each regular paycheck as well. I want a new car and a beach condo... oh, just gotta wait.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Just curious what is your area of practice in pharmacy and what specific cities are you referencing to?

I work both retail and hospital per diem. There's so many openings that I worked 29 days straight. I missed the thirty bc it was a holiday haha. 200k since I graduated in 2012. I actually need more ppl to pick up my shifts bc it's getting exhausting.

Central Cal refers to Fresno area to Bakersfield.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Maybe grads from UCSF and USC are very spoiled and would never deign to go into retail. Most recent grads in retail I see are grads from Touro, CNSU, and exactly two from UoP. Retail is the bottom of the barrel though
 
I think the best thing to do is open some pharmacies and hire these new grads at 20 bucks an hour and you can make huge margins. Treat them like dogs and make them pay for taking huge loans.
 
First batch of new grads from KGI, WCU, and CHSU will be graduating soon and licensed around August-December (assuming they fail the NAPLEX or CPJE once at most). Will be interesting, yet horrifying to see how the job market turns out later this year.
 
Last edited:
Maybe grads from UCSF and USC are very spoiled and would never deign to go into retail. Most recent grads in retail I see are grads from Touro, CNSU, and exactly two from UoP. Retail is the bottom of the barrel though
My retail companies is littered with usc and ucsd grads because they fail to get into residency and can't get a job elsewhere.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I like how people think retail is for the misfits who cannot get into residency. Our classmate who was ranked #1 decided to go into retail. Could easily do residency. Many classmates got hospital positions without residency either, which is funny because some did residency just to do that same job. I love retail. I dont have to deal with big egos pharmacists in a small room. I can still make an impact with my fresh clinical knowledge to answer patient questions about their doctor treatments and what I think is best. I make recommendations that are cost-effective and accepted by doctors. And fun techs to work with. Retail is only bad if you have bad techs. Otherwise, it is WAY more enjoyable than my clinical rotations in hospitals.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
I like how people think retail is for the misfits who cannot get into residency. Our classmate who was ranked #1 decided to go into retail. Could easily do residency. Many classmates got hospital positions without residency either, which is funny because some did residency just to do that same job. I love retail. I dont have to deal with big egos pharmacists in a small room. I can still make an impact with my fresh clinical knowledge to answer patient questions about their doctor treatments and what I think is best. I make recommendations that are cost-effective and accepted by doctors. And fun techs to work with. Retail is only bad if you have bad techs. Otherwise, it is WAY more enjoyable than my clinical rotations in hospitals.

Retail is all fun until you get into a 24 hour cvs with two techs per shift, list of phone calls to make, DM telling you why flu shot numbers are low. Then try making recommendations and having fun with the techs
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I like how people think retail is for the misfits who cannot get into residency. Our classmate who was ranked #1 decided to go into retail. Could easily do residency. Many classmates got hospital positions without residency either, which is funny because some did residency just to do that same job. I love retail. I dont have to deal with big egos pharmacists in a small room. I can still make an impact with my fresh clinical knowledge to answer patient questions about their doctor treatments and what I think is best. I make recommendations that are cost-effective and accepted by doctors. And fun techs to work with. Retail is only bad if you have bad techs. Otherwise, it is WAY more enjoyable than my clinical rotations in hospitals.

Watch out there are too many miserable pharmacists here for you to be saying that. If they can't handle their job, no one can.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
Retail is all fun until you get into a 24 hour cvs with two techs per shift, list of phone calls to make, DM telling you why flu shot numbers are low. Then try making recommendations and having fun with the techs
You had 2 techs??? I had one tech at a 24 hour store the whole day except for maybe 1 hour in which I had 2 techs overlap.
 
In LA, even most staff RPh are getting ~36 hrs at CVS, stores just aren't allocated full time hours anymore. I would consider underemployment at 36 hrs or less. Maybe even 32 hours.

I would predict 10% unemployment and 30 percent underemployed by 2020... Then for the rate to increase by 1-2 percent every year unless a significant event occurs to sway employment in either direction.
If this is correct, it's not bad at all
 
Top