Can We Share this on SDN or are They in Cahoots with Public Health Establishment?

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.

Chartreuse Wombat

Full Member
7+ Year Member
Joined
May 7, 2014
Messages
1,647
Reaction score
3,447
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
1674447646898.png
 
Members don't see this ad :)
"FDA Commissioner Robert Califf tweeted on Jan. 11 that “COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with a significant reduction in hospitalization and death” (my emphasis)."

You lost me there. Questioning that COVID vaccines prevented millions (probably) of deaths is simply illusional.


"He should know that correlation doesn’t prove causation. A study found the unvaccinated were significantly more likely to get into car accidents, but that doesn’t mean vaccines prevent crashes."

Smart people get the vaccine, stupid people don't.
Stupid people don't drive well.
:lol:


I understand the point that randomized trials are lacking, but we have a serious problem now.
How to conduct these trials?
Established immunity aganst the virus through prior infection or vaccination differs a lot from person to person, both due to time issues (when did you last get infected/vaccinated, how are your antibody levels) and T-cell response, which can vary from person to person and is not easy to measure. The endpoints will also be difficult to measure. Τhe early COVID trials managed to show a drop in hospitalization rates, but because of the growing immunity in the community (and the fact that some of the "vulnerable" are dead or fully immune by now), it is difficult to show a drop in hospitalizations due to the vaccines now. The "number needed to vaccinate" to prevent a hospitalization is simply higher now than in December 2020.
Thus, conducting randomized trials to test the bivalent boosters would require a lot of volunteers, mutliple times more than the previous trials. Additionally, I suspect that the willingness of people to undergo randomization will have considerably dropped, simply because many no longer care, are already boosted or do not want to get vaccinated (or even go into a trial).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Let the stupids die off by touting their pure blood idiocy. Or letting fear of myocarditis override common sense of avoiding death.

Whatever. Public health is a joke here in the USA. It should have been enforced to get the vaccine. Instead, grandma (and grandpa and auntie) died. Oh well, who won the playoff games again?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Let the stupids die off by touting their pure blood idiocy. Or letting fear of myocarditis override common sense of avoiding death.

Whatever. Public health is a joke here in the USA. It should have been enforced to get the vaccine. Instead, grandma (and grandpa and auntie) died. Oh well, who won the playoff games again?
Yep. Apparently it was fine to mandate MMR and polio vaccines back in the day. But definitely not now, makes total sense obviously.

By the way i think many antivax parts of the country are making measles great again?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
I think there is now healthy skepticism regarding the incremental benefits of 4 shots over say 2 or especially 3, and for those who have experienced a toxicity from one of their previous shots (rare but does happen), certainly reasonable to hold off on additional shots, especially if otherwise healthy.

Hospitals nationwide are not in perpetual fear of collapse. Well - they are, but not because of COVID.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
I think there is now healthy skepticism regarding the incremental benefits of 4 shots over say 2 or especially 3, and for those who have experienced a toxicity from one of their previous shots (rare but does happen), certainly reasonable to hold off on additional shots, especially if otherwise healthy.

Hospitals nationwide are not in perpetual fear of collapse. Well - they are, but not because of COVID.

This is one of the craziest medical things and it makes me sad to see polarization of doctors over the 4th vaccine.

I have 3 shots and had COVID. I spend a lot of time with my partner who is high risk. All I want is for someone to tell me the benefit of the 4th shot for someone like me. The benefit has to be scientific and show benefit to me OR her, not moral. No one seems to be able to do it. The FDA authorization memo does not make me feel better, they are pretty honest that there is essentially no clinical data. My job also currently doesn't require it.

It's such a low bar!

This shot has the same level of evidence as topical biryani oil for preventing RO oversupply.
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 5 users
This is one of the craziest medical things and it makes me sad to see polarization of doctors over the 4th vaccine.

I have 3 shots and had COVID. I spend a lot of time with my partner who is high risk. All I want is for someone to tell me the benefit of the 4th shot for someone like me. The benefit has to be scientific and show benefit to me OR her, not moral. No one seems to be able to do it. The FDA authorization memo does not make me feel better, they are pretty honest that there is essentially no clinical data. My job also currently doesn't require it.

It's such a low bar!

This shot has the same level of evidence as topical biryani oil for preventing RO oversupply.
In theory, the 4th shot (depending on how low your antibody levels are - which again partially depends on when your third shot / covid was), would lower your chance of getting covid, if you came in contact with someone who has it.
That again would mean that the chance of you transmitting covid to your high risk partner would be lower.

But yes, scientifically speaking, there is no evidence that in your case, the 4th shot would influence any clinical outcomes for you (and probably your partner too).
I caught covid around 6 months after my 3rd shot. I was at home, but it wasn't fun, last time I felt that bad was when I had the flu more than 10 years ago. It was unpleasant.
I had my 4th shot 6 months after I had covid, did not want to go through it again and there was quite the scare in November that the winter would be "bad", epidemic-wise, over here. I don't know if it was a good choice or not. I don't know what I am going to do next fall.
 
  • Haha
  • Like
Reactions: 1 users
When you're a single doc, not testing positive or having symptoms is equally as important as not having a miserable experience with COVID. I do what I can to not test positive, even if I knew I'd be asymptomatic. A 5 day vacay would be nice, though. I don't really think further trials are necessary at this point. It's rational to think that a booster reduces your chances of being infected for a short period of time. The side effect is I might buy some m&Ms at the drug store while I wait. Nbd, and not really worth talking about any more IMHO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 5 users
Is there even solid data that the first 2 shots reduce risk of transmission? My impression was there is clear reduction in disease severity/hospitalization rate but no change in risk of infection. Given this, it would be hard to see boosters reducing risk of transmission and certainly nearly all the data for boosters is flimsy mice studies showing it induces antibody response. But of course everything is so muddy on this topic it’s hard to even know where to look for evidence
 
Is there even solid data that the first 2 shots reduce risk of transmission? My impression was there is clear reduction in disease severity/hospitalization rate but no change in risk of infection. Given this, it would be hard to see boosters reducing risk of transmission and certainly nearly all the data for boosters is flimsy mice studies showing it induces antibody response. But of course everything is so muddy on this topic it’s hard to even know where to look for evidence

The initial randomized data in NEJM would suggest yes, reduced transmission. The curves separate dramatically. However, the effect seems short lived and with longer follow up that reduced transmission may have been just for a short period of time.

In the current iteration of the virus and clearly reduced efficacy of vaccine (with regard to infection), I don't think we can show reduced transmission.

At this point it is my reading of the data that further boosters may provide a temporary benefit for high risk populations. I just don't see a clinically meaningful benefit yet in all the non-randomized data in a big chunk of the population - younger, previously infected people with no comorbidities, etc.

We really should be randomizing a +/- booster study.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
Members don't see this ad :)
When you're a single doc, not testing positive or having symptoms is equally as important as not having a miserable experience with COVID. I do what I can to not test positive, even if I knew I'd be asymptomatic. A 5 day vacay would be nice, though. I don't really think further trials are necessary at this point. It's rational to think that a booster reduces your chances of being infected for a short period of time. The side effect is I might buy some m&Ms at the drug store while I wait. Nbd, and not really worth talking about any more IMHO.

I think this is completely reasonable.

I though would really like to see randomized data. It is a massive $ issue to consider yearly boosters without that data. And though unlikely, there is a small risk of a crazy tail risk event of a vaccine causing major major issues from repeated exposure. Again, unlikely, but implications are massive when you scale up how many vaccines may be given.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
In theory, the 4th shot (depending on how low your antibody levels are - which again partially depends on when your third shot / covid was), would lower your chance of getting covid, if you came in contact with someone who has it.
That again would mean that the chance of you transmitting covid to your high risk partner would be lower.

But yes, scientifically speaking, there is no evidence that in your case, the 4th shot would influence any clinical outcomes for you (and probably your partner too).
I caught covid around 6 months after my 3rd shot. I was at home, but it wasn't fun, last time I felt that bad was when I had the flu more than 10 years ago. It was unpleasant.
I had my 4th shot 6 months after I had covid, did not want to go through it again and there was quite the scare in November that the winter would be "bad", epidemic-wise, over here. I don't know if it was a good choice or not. I don't know what I am going to do next fall.

I had COVID a few months after my second shot. It was similarly not fun for about 2-3 days, and then I sat around and was bored for another 8 or so. I then went and got my 3rd shot (1st booster) a few months later. When I got COVID again about 8 months after the booster, I was basically asymptomatic and, prior to COVID pandemic, would've continued going to work.

I have no idea whether it was the booster or previously having COVID that made my second run through be as minimal as it was. Agree with NMS, that last line is what frustrates me in regards to the necessity of the 4th shot (2nd booster) for someone in my age range.
 
  • Like
  • Wow
Reactions: 1 users
Like all of you I was first in line to get my first two COVID shots and also first in line for the booster. I did not need any convincing, but our State and County government legally compelled the vaccine for all healthcare workers.

Neither I nor my family members are considered "high risk" for COVID so I deferred further shots. Interestingly, the culture of the country even in liberal areas has shifted substantially. There is intolerance for further vaccine mandates. In addition, the data for additional boosters outside of high risk individuals is sparse. The fact that the manufacturers dramatically increased the cost of the vaccines despite having its development paid for by the US government doesn't give anyone the touchy-feelies either.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
Nobody at a recent major indoor sporting event I attended wore masks. Nobody. I think the public is done. Unless we see a wave of death wash over, its the flu now for the vaccinated (but still a very real risk for those unvaccinated).

The fact that people tore each other to shreds over public health doesn't bode well for the next crisis. Like an Ebola or god forbid some other lab experiment gone loose.

While a lot of grandma's were eliminated sadly, so were a lot of anti-science anti-vax *****s. You can't win'm all.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 users
Nobody at a recent major indoor sporting event I attended wore masks. Nobody. I think the public is done. Unless we see a wave of death wash over, its the flu now for the vaccinated (but still a very real risk for those unvaccinated).

The fact that people tore each other to shreds over public health doesn't bode well for the next crisis. Like an Ebola or god forbid some other lab experiment gone loose.

While a lot of grandma's were eliminated sadly, so were a lot of anti-science anti-vax *****s. You can't win'm all.
i doubt there are many left on earth who are either unvaccinated or did not have covid (at least subclinically).
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I never "had it" by rapid test.. (I did get sick once during the pandemic, another flu perhaps.. and I do get flu shots).

With 4 shots, I am sure I have circulating antibodies.. so impossible to ever know. Meh. When's the next flavor out? I'm in.
 
The fact that people tore each other to shreds over public health doesn't bode well for the next crisis. Like an Ebola or god forbid some other lab experiment gone loose.
Amen to this

Although in the case of Ebola I look forward to the social media fueled conspiracies to what is REALLY causing you to bleed from your eyes and butthole
 
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: 2 users
Top