A few thoughts
1) I am glad the USMLE is planning to go this route. Much, much more fair than the alternative (forcing someone with only Pass to compete with 250+ scores at competitive programs). This has seemed like the lesser evil since the beginning imo.
2) Like prog director and like Dr Carmody has been saying forever, what we really need are some damn application caps. Step 1 mania was a symptom of overapplication. I am really, really bummed about the lack of serious discussion about capping, especially for this upcoming Coronavirus cycle when people will be applying to many more programs and able to attend far more interviews. The individual specialty societies have recognized the problem and are downright pleading with applicants in their guidelines to apply to very few programs. But there is zero enforcement mechanism and so now the cycle is becoming a prisoner's dilemma.
I think it'll lead to a tragedy of the commons where interviews are all soaked up by a minority of superstars, and leave the Average Joe with fewer interviews and a lot of (justifiable) anxiety. I say justified because I do think the SOAP rate is going to spike up. The match is only theoretically zero-sum after the SOAP has occurred; it's completely possible for a ton of applicants and programs to fall of their rank lists in the main Match round due to an inappropriate distribution of interviews.
3) I think the crowd of people who turned down a big-name medical school for a scholarship elsewhere are few and far between. I know they're well represented on SDN, but in reality, only 20% of people even get accepted to more than 1 medical school. Only a tiny subset of them are going to have one option much higher ranked, while the other offers them scholarship, and while the big name refuses to price-match or gives less need-based aid. I recognize that the situation could really suck for these individuals in the class of 2023-24 but we can't make these global decisions based on how it affects a fringe group of superstars. The vast majority of med students are at their 1 option (or 1 of several similar options) and do not deserve to have their Pass compared against scores.